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Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.

"Crunch Time" arrived for HHusky and...

HoustonHuskyHoustonHusky Member Posts: 5,993
in Tug Tavern


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crunch-time-arrives-and-was-everyone-wrong-about-coronavirus

One week ago, when looking at the growing divergence between the number of new coronavirus cases in the US and shrinking number of fatalities, we referred to Nordea's strategist Andreas Steno Larsen, who observed that "we are entering “crunch time” on fatalities since they should start to rise in early July given the lead/lag structure versus new cases."

As Larsen further predicted, "if fatalities don’t spike early in July, then people will conclude that it’s probably spreading amongst a part of the population that is not as sensitive, or that it is a resulted of increased testing or that the virus has become less deadly as we move into the summer months. Governors in Texas, California and Florida seem to have concluded that the below correlation holds, but the jury is still out."

His conclusion was that "the next 6-10 days will be crucial."

Well, one week later, we decided to follow up on the current status and... there is still no spike in fatalities at either the federal level...
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Comments

  • NorthwestFreshNorthwestFresh Member Posts: 7,972
    Why do you want one person’s great-grandma to die? If it saves ONE LIFE...
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  • HHuskyHHusky Member Posts: 21,579
    This poast will age poorly.

    The Vid is having a very good day.
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  • greenbloodgreenblood Member Posts: 14,505
    edited July 2020
    As much as I want to agree, you are assuming that the majority of people die within a week of getting COVID, that isn't the case. As it has gone on, hospitals have been able to prolong even the worst of cases. We won't be seeing true outcomes for this recent spike until about the end of the month. I hope this chart holds, but we just don't know. That's why I'm pro mask requirements, but completely against shutdowns.
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  • NorthwestFreshNorthwestFresh Member Posts: 7,972
    HHusky said:

    This poast will age poorly.

    The Vid is having a very good day.

    Found one of the few people watching the Telethon Death Scoreboard on CNN. Call now to donate!
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  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 107,470 Founders Club
    Needs more tim
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  • HHuskyHHusky Member Posts: 21,579
    NorthwestFresh said:

    HHusky said:

    This poast will age poorly.

    The Vid is having a very good day.

    Found one of the few people watching the Telethon Death Scoreboard on CNN. Call now to donate!
    In other words, "Scoreboard Baby!"

    But you don't want anyone looking at the scoreboard.

    Makes sense.
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  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 107,470 Founders Club
    HHusky said:

    NorthwestFresh said:

    HHusky said:

    This poast will age poorly.

    The Vid is having a very good day.

    Found one of the few people watching the Telethon Death Scoreboard on CNN. Call now to donate!
    In other words, "Scoreboard Baby!"

    But you don't want anyone looking at the scoreboard.

    Makes sense.
    What's the death rate? How is the curve looking?
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  • greenbloodgreenblood Member Posts: 14,505
    edited July 2020
    MikeDamone said:

    greenblood said:

    As much as I want to agree, you are assuming that the majority of people die within a week of getting COVID, that isn't the case. As it has gone on, hospitals have been able to prolong even the worst of cases. We won't be seeing true outcomes for this recent spike until about the end of the month. I hope this chart holds, but we just don't know. That's why I'm pro mask requirements, but completely against shutdowns.

    18 days. But 36 days after Memorial Day. Maybe 54 days after July 4th.
    My point being, I don't think cases vs death rate is accurate do to changing medical practices in fighting the virus. I think you need to have a combination of this with hospital capacity usage to find out how bad it is. From what I've seen, the hospitals are not even close to capacity yet in the majority of areas.
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  • thechatchthechatch Member Posts: 6,412
    How long until HH bites off of IC and claims that he was “just trolling all of us”?
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  • NorthwestFreshNorthwestFresh Member Posts: 7,972
    thechatch said:

    How long until HH bites off of IC and claims that he was “just trolling all of us”?

    He admitted that in a PM to me years ago on The Shed. Still, his trolling sucks because he just isn’t very smart, so it’s fun to point and laugh even though I’m in on the ruse.
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  • Bob_CBob_C Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 10,863 Swaye's Wigwam
    https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/cdc-adds-to-list-of-symptoms-for-covid-19/

    “In mid-May, the CDC quietly added congestion, runny nose, nausea or vomiting, and diarrhea as signs of COVID-19.“

    So basically every symptom of every virus known to man.
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  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 107,470 Founders Club
    After our beach trip I caught a cold. It was grim but I'm fighting back. Runny nose. Some gas. Pray for me
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  • BendintheriverBendintheriver Member Posts: 6,167 Standard Supporter
    greenblood said:

    MikeDamone said:

    greenblood said:

    As much as I want to agree, you are assuming that the majority of people die within a week of getting COVID, that isn't the case. As it has gone on, hospitals have been able to prolong even the worst of cases. We won't be seeing true outcomes for this recent spike until about the end of the month. I hope this chart holds, but we just don't know. That's why I'm pro mask requirements, but completely against shutdowns.

    18 days. But 36 days after Memorial Day. Maybe 54 days after July 4th.
    My point being, I don't think cases vs death rate is accurate do to changing medical practices in fighting the virus. I think you need to have a combination of this with hospital capacity usage to find out how bad it is. From what I've seen, the hospitals are not even close to capacity yet in the majority of areas.
    Not sure how many times I have to repeat this(not admonishing you Greenblood) but we have now had 40,000,000 tests for covid. Compare that to the amount of tests we had in March and April.

    Secondly, compare the death rates now to back when democrat governors like Cuomo were brilliantly sticking the sick in with the most vulnerable in assisted living homes and you can see the picture perfectly clear.

    Thirdly, Trump and crew have prepared the Gov's with so many services and drugs to combat covirus that when you combine taking away democrat governors stupidity, the increased testing and the latest treatments this administration has logistically supplied the nation with, the death count is nowhere near what it was. In one more week they will have to take away the designation of "Pandemic".

    Facts be damned, HH will still be in his basement in his bubble boy environment suit hoping for more deaths.

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  • HHuskyHHusky Member Posts: 21,579
    Bendintheriver said:

    greenblood said:

    MikeDamone said:

    greenblood said:

    As much as I want to agree, you are assuming that the majority of people die within a week of getting COVID, that isn't the case. As it has gone on, hospitals have been able to prolong even the worst of cases. We won't be seeing true outcomes for this recent spike until about the end of the month. I hope this chart holds, but we just don't know. That's why I'm pro mask requirements, but completely against shutdowns.

    18 days. But 36 days after Memorial Day. Maybe 54 days after July 4th.
    My point being, I don't think cases vs death rate is accurate do to changing medical practices in fighting the virus. I think you need to have a combination of this with hospital capacity usage to find out how bad it is. From what I've seen, the hospitals are not even close to capacity yet in the majority of areas.
    Not sure how many times I have to repeat this(not admonishing you Greenblood) but we have now had 40,000,000 tests for covid. Compare that to the amount of tests we had in March and April.

    Secondly, compare the death rates now to back when democrat governors like Cuomo were brilliantly sticking the sick in with the most vulnerable in assisted living homes and you can see the picture perfectly clear.

    Thirdly, Trump and crew have prepared the Gov's with so many services and drugs to combat covirus that when you combine taking away democrat governors stupidity, the increased testing and the latest treatments this administration has logistically supplied the nation with, the death count is nowhere near what it was. In one more week they will have to take away the designation of "Pandemic".

    Facts be damned, HH will still be in his basement in his bubble boy environment suit hoping for more deaths.

    Close. I'll be on a plane and then driving halfway across the country this month.

    Don't hate me because I'm always right.
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