Numbers, math, facts, etc.

March 26 - https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/uw-model-says-social-distancing-is-starting-to-work-but-still-projects-1400-coronavirus-deaths-in-the-state/

In Washington, there’s no predicted shortage in overall hospital beds, though some individual facilities — including the UW Medical system — will need extra capacity and have already geared up to provide it. The statewide shortage in ICU beds is forecast to reach almost 100 by April 19, the model’s approximate date for when hospitalizations are expected to peak in Washington.

April 20

If I recall correctly, the rationale off lock-down wasn't primarily to prevent infection but to "flatten the curve" and give hospitals time and space to deal with those who've gotten sick.

Time to declare victory and move on?

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Pete Carroll gave us Coronavirus

Comments

DoogieMcDoogerson

You ever notice their data is sketchy? Check it out daily.....Also the curves you've got there are kind of interesting in that they are based on date of onset....

GrundleStiltzkin

Expound, please.

And 15 minutes of sleuthing, I could not find what that total available ICU bed figure is in WA.

MikeDamone

Flatten the curve ended up flattening peoples bank accounts

RoadTrip

I couldn't find it either and that would show just how off the experts were in this example. I'm having some pretty epic battles with fuctarded liberals who believe we're nowhere near the end and that I'm irresponsible for sharing a different opinion and using these studies and statistics against their arguments. Bob always says it and it needs to be repeated again, "Liberals lie and they love being lied to even more." Not sure that's the exact quote Bob.

GrundleStiltzkin

What were you seeing in the curve beyond the obvious?

GrundleStiltzkin

https://twitter.com/scottadamssays/status/1252227150624600064?s=21

RoadTrip

That's what's so amazing in these two graphs is just how obvious they were wrong. We know what their ICU bed shortfall predictions were but we don't know how many ICU beds there are. One has to assume we're nowhere close to their shortfall prediction. I think there's between 10 and 13,000 total hospital beds in the state of Washington and you can see how drastic the case count is falling. The death count is also falling off the cliff and does anyone remember what the "experts" told us in terms of how many deaths we should expect? I'm trying to go back and find the articles which had those predictions. UW's model started getting it close to right toward the end of March but earlier on they were way off.

GreenRiverGatorz

Scott Adams making a hard charge to replace Scott Baio as the conservative A-lister for this year's RNC.

RoadTrip

OKA Bob Loblaw. Really good information on this issue can be found at Bob Loblaw's Law Blog.

GrundleStiltzkin

WA death projection was 1400, 81k (huh?) nationally. It’s in the Seattle Tims article above. I’m LIPO on those.

Pitchfork51

The left is still claiming 1million +

RoadTrip

Yes, but that was March 26th when their predictions started falling precipitously. I remember reading ridiculous numbers and as the stats proved they were way off they started to change their models. The point I've been trying to make is that all the draconian restrictions were based on these absurd earlier predictions. I hope the experts here took plenty of screenshots because I can't find them now.

DoogieMcDoogerson

Looks like it's 341: ( from the UW Covid Site: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/washington )

If you look at the data one day, call that "Day A" and then you look at "Day A" say 3-4 days later, the data is different for that day. Add to that the fact that the counties continue to complain when they post their #s that the state data system is having challenges. The #s don't really jive from one chart to another either on the same site.

GrundleStiltzkin

I have low expectations for government in this regard, and they’ve probably exceeded those modest expectations considering the circumstances. The problem of course is the fucktarded policies based—allegedly—on shitty data.

doogie

Wow. Looking at those two charts together proves Trumps drugs worked!

RoadTrip

Also, looking at those two charts together on my cell phone is making me go blind....don't twist

incremetal_progress

overall cases in Washington dropped yesterday for the first time.

The current stay at home order expires in 2 weeks. You don't want to fuck it up and end it early and cause another lockdown, but I can't see it extending more than a week beyond that.

GrundleStiltzkin

There’s always another week. Courageous Washingtonians have been giving it up easier than a Lewis County hairdresser.

RoadTrip

Tucker Carlson was really good tonight. Toward the end of the show he or the doctor he always has on reminded us that one of the antidotes of the 1918 Spanish flu was the sun (vitamin D). It proved to help so much so that they started building hospitals outside. Their "experts" wrote about this and tried to warn us we should do the same when the next great pandemic of this nature hit the United States. Did we take heed? No we did the exact opposite. The virus is dissipated outside. It thrives inside and now some tests are proving that exposure to sunlight can actually help kill the virus. So stay inside if you want to but tomorrow I'm taking my basketball to the park and shoot air balls to prove a point.

incremetal_progress

people will absolutely get restless if it's extended too long. We're just not at that point yet.

Golf courses, fishing and state parks need to be opened soon. I don't think people are dying to go back to movie theaters, bowling allies, and restaurants (Hi dumbfuck Georgia governor!) but they're definitely gonna get sick of sitting inside.