Social distancing and Shelter in place worked?

thechatch

doogie said:

I cannot wait for the Inslee press conference announcing thousands of State government employees furloughed.

Never gonna happen. In WA state, only earners and laborers are told to go home.

whatshouldicareabout

SECDAWG said:

Pitchfork51 said:

fewer

and we will see more deaths from other things like rises in suicide than covid would have ever done.

Just keep granny quarantined for a few more months and let everyone else go on their business. Case closed.

So their strategy worked?

There would have been more deaths and problems if these mandates have not have been implemented?

Question is, how much more?

Question ultimately is, did/has it worked? Or just fallacy??

Also risk/reward...I’m a military guy. At what stage is the the reward greater that the risk?!

Probably the best way would be to compare between states or between countries, though each has done it differently (shelter orders, testing, etc.) so it isn't perfect, but it's probably the best measure we have.

RaceBannon

We could cut flu deaths every season by shutting it down but obviously that would be stupid

We need to analyze this rationally before it becomes embedded

GrundleStiltzkin

whatshouldicareabout said:

SECDAWG said:

Pitchfork51 said:

fewer

and we will see more deaths from other things like rises in suicide than covid would have ever done.

Just keep granny quarantined for a few more months and let everyone else go on their business. Case closed.

So their strategy worked?

There would have been more deaths and problems if these mandates have not have been implemented?

Question is, how much more?

Question ultimately is, did/has it worked? Or just fallacy??

Also risk/reward...I’m a military guy. At what stage is the the reward greater that the risk?!

Probably the best way would be to compare between states or between countries, though each has done it differently (shelter orders, testing, etc.) so it isn't perfect, but it's probably the best measure we have.

Are those substantively different? I don’t know.

whatshouldicareabout

GrundleStiltzkin said:

whatshouldicareabout said:

SECDAWG said:

Pitchfork51 said:

fewer

and we will see more deaths from other things like rises in suicide than covid would have ever done.

Just keep granny quarantined for a few more months and let everyone else go on their business. Case closed.

So their strategy worked?

There would have been more deaths and problems if these mandates have not have been implemented?

Question is, how much more?

Question ultimately is, did/has it worked? Or just fallacy??

Also risk/reward...I’m a military guy. At what stage is the the reward greater that the risk?!

Probably the best way would be to compare between states or between countries, though each has done it differently (shelter orders, testing, etc.) so it isn't perfect, but it's probably the best measure we have.

Are those substantively different? I don’t know.

What type of conclusion are you trying to derive from that analysis? If we're trying to look at the effect of shelter-in-place, you'd need to set some controls to reduce noise and to isolate the variable.

Since we're looking at cases here, the most important thing to consider is the availability of testing, the timing of testing (presymptomatic or only the most critically illy?), the frequency of testing, and who is tested. Rates will be different between different countries, so this is challenging to isolate the effect, but what might be most interesting is testing the most likely to have hospitalizations or complications. However, I'm not sure where that data would exist, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are a number of papers out this summer on the subject.

One good way of measuring death rates would be to look at the definition of death due to COVID. Numbers of other posters here have complained about the way they are counted, including COVID-probable as a COVID-death. I'm not sure how Sweden is doing it or how it's reported across states, but that is another measure.

insinceredawg

doogie said:

It’s my belief that when staring down 2,500,000 Projected US deaths within 30-60 days and All age groups will see Death. swift action needed to be taken.

But, actual data rendered the projection models to be totally worthless, (2,500,000 —-> 50,000 with 50% north of age 70). 90% of ALL deaths involve pre-existing medical conditions.

We learned excess hospital, ICU beds, equipment and staff capacity, successful drug therapy was the Nationwide reality.

Now, suddenly and without explanation, Democrats want to ditch Science to push Politics and Control over the populace.

Meanwhile #coronabros cheer their capture and surrender from Moms basement.

Link?

Bob_C

SECDAWG said:

Simple question.

Has the Trump and Upper political figures orders to shelter in place and social distancing caused LESS COVID cases and deaths worked or have been working? or is this all a fallacy? If not implemented, are the results in this time frame the same as now, regardless?

Total deaths are slightly down vs do nothing

insinceredawg said:

doogie said:

It’s my belief that when staring down 2,500,000 Projected US deaths within 30-60 days and All age groups will see Death. swift action needed to be taken.

But, actual data rendered the projection models to be totally worthless, (2,500,000 —-> 50,000 with 50% north of age 70). 90% of ALL deaths involve pre-existing medical conditions.

We learned excess hospital, ICU beds, equipment and staff capacity, successful drug therapy was the Nationwide reality.

Now, suddenly and without explanation, Democrats want to ditch Science to push Politics and Control over the populace.

Meanwhile #coronabros cheer their capture and surrender from Moms basement.

Link?

Economics is science.