That seems to be the mainstream consensus among those well versed in pandemic response. Noted experts
@RaceBannon and
@GrundleStiltzkin have already (rightly) pointed out that with so few people having been exposed, social distancing and an economic shutdown is just delaying the inevitable. Even if the number of infected is 10x as much as reported, which is on the high-end of estimates, that still leaves 97% of the country currently unexposed. So whether you shut down the economy for four weeks or four months, a second wave is nearly inevitable if you don't actually identify the clusters of outbreaks before they get out of control.
So we can keep doing this song and dance of opening, closing, and distancing for the next 18 months, which is probably the status quo needed to prevent the hospital system from being overwhelmed, and we'll all wake up when this is over in 2022 with a third world economy. Or we can actually inject some precision into our response and better understand who, when, and where infections are happening. That'll require testing to the tunes of millions per day, much larger than our current rate of 100,000 per day.
Noted liberal rag Vox (sorry
@Sledog, you might want to sit this one out) gives a pretty good breakdown of the different estimates out there for how much testing is likely needed to open our economy back to an acceptable level. In short - we've got a long ways to go.
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/13/21215133/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-screening
