Grundle and I were right, part II

MikeDamone

A phlebotomist working at Roseland Community Hospital said Thursday that 30% to 50% of patients tested for the coronavirus have antibodies while only around 10% to 20% of those tested have the active virus.

https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospital-phlebotomist-30-of-those-tested-have-coronavirus-antibody

GrundleStiltzkin

Thinly sourced, completely believable. I'll LIPO for now.

Pitchfork51

I dont know if I should hate Trump over this or not

GrundleStiltzkin

Even NYT is struggling to #resist our? rightness
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/health/coronavirus-antibody-test.html

GrundleStiltzkin

Part 3

https://hotair.com/archives/allahpundit/2020/04/10/new-hope-oxford-model-study-shows-15-german-town-coronavirus-antibodies/

The mystery at the heart of the epidemic is how many people have had coronavirus while experiencing few or no symptoms. The University of Oxford’s model speculates that as many as half of all Brits might have it, which would be wonderful news. It would mean that virtually everyone who gets it shrugs it off with little difficulty; the people crowding hospitals are extreme outliers, prone to severe symptoms for reasons that aren’t clear. It would also mean that we’re much closer to herd immunity, in which 50-75 percent of the population has recovered from an infection, than we realize. There won’t be 12-18 months of “waves” of the disease. There’ll be one epidemic curve and we’re in the middle of it right now.

To know if Oxford is right or wrong, we need blood from a random sample of the population to see how many people have COVID-19 antibodies, the smoking gun that proves someone has had the virus and recovered from it. A study like that was done recently in the German town of Gangelt, in Heinsberg. Result: 15 percent, which is three to five times higher than experts’ best guesses of what percentage of the U.S. is infected.

Data from coronavirus deaths in Gangelt suggests an infection mortality rate of 0.37 percent, significantly below the 0.9 percent which Imperial College has estimated, or the 0.66 percent found in a revised study last week.

The 15 percent figure from Gangelt is interesting because it matches two previous studies. Firstly, there was the accidental experiment of the cruise ship the Diamond Princess, which inadvertently became a floating laboratory when a passenger showing symptoms of COVID-19 boarded on January 20 and remained in the ship, spreading the virus, for five days. The ship was eventually quarantined on February 3 and all its 3,711 passengers tested for the virus. It turned out the 634 of them — 17 percent — had been infected, many of them without symptoms. The mortality rate on the vessel was 1.2 percent — although, inevitably being a cruise ship, it was a relatively elderly cohort.

We gained another insight into SARS-CoV-2 from a Chinese study into 391 cases of COVID-19 in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen. In this case, scientists tested everyone who shared a household with people who were found to be suffering from the disease. It turned out 15 percent of this group had gone on to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 themselves. Again, many showed no symptoms.

Fifteen percent was also what Spain’s infection rate was estimated to be per a model (not a serological study) published late last month. The good news from Gangelt, obviously, is the possibility that COVID-19’s fatality rate is much lower than everyone thinks due to the iceberg of asymptomatic cases lurking beneath the surface of the data, largely undetectable. But is Gangelt an outlier or representative of Germany as a whole? The wrinkle is that the virus arrived there early, in February, via a carnival attended by thousands. It had a lot of time and opportunity to circulate locally. That being so, some scientists think 15 percent transmission isn’t cause for optimism under the circumstances:

RoadTrip

Oops. Sorry didn't see your poast. Read this article this morning. Fucking sick and tired of this shit. Is it against the law to say fuck and call a public official a nazi in a public hearing? Are we even allowed to confront these fucking asshole democrats face to face anymore?

PurpleThrobber

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jednp7wU6bs



So....people got kinda sick....had enough anti-bodies/immunity built in their system and then weren't sick any longer?!?

Amazing. This is Hemo the Magnificent science. Learned this shit in about third grade.

GrundleStiltzkin

Part 4

Hmmm: 15% Of Pregnant Women Recently Admitted To NYC Hospital To Give Birth Had Coronavirus — Nearly All Without Symptoms

A tantalizing data point for the central mystery of the epidemic: How many people have had the disease and how many of those never had symptoms?

In mid-March doctors at New York–Presbyterian Allen Hospital diagnosed one of their obstetric patients with COVID-19. So they changed their admission protocol: Beginning on March 22, they would ask all women admitted for childbirth to submit to a coronavirus screening. They tested more than 200 patients over a two-week span.

The best estimates right now of how many Americans are infected are in the range of one to five percent. The numbers at New York-Presbyterian were conspicuously higher than that.

Four women (1.9%) had fever or other symptoms of Covid-19 on admission, and all 4 women tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (Figure 1). Of the 211 women without symptoms, all were afebrile on admission. Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained from 210 of the 211 women (99.5%) who did not have symptoms of Covid-19; of these women, 29 (13.7%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Thus, 29 of the 33 patients who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 at admission (87.9%) had no symptoms of Covid-19 at presentation.

Of the 29 women who had been asymptomatic but who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 on admission, fever developed in 3 (10%) before postpartum discharge (median length of stay, 2 days). Two of these patients received antibiotics for presumed endomyometritis (although 1 patient did not have localizing symptoms), and 1 patient was presumed to be febrile due to Covid-19 and received supportive care. One patient with a swab that was negative for SARS-CoV-2 on admission became symptomatic postpartum; repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing 3 days after the initial test was positive.

Fifteen percent also happens to be the number of residents in the German hot spot of Gangelt who were found recently to have coronavirus antibodies in their blood. Fifteen percent was also the best guess of how many people in Spain might have had the virus as of late last month according to a model published a few weeks ago. This may be a realistic infection rate for populations that have recently had the virus sweep through their communities.

Another bit of circumstantial evidence is how many members of the NYPD have been out sick lately:

On Monday, 6,974 uniformed members of the NYPD were out sick, accounting for 19.3% of the Department’s uniformed workforce, according to the report. That number has jumped from 12% on March 28.

Currently, 1,935 uniformed members and 293 civilian members tested positive for the coronavirus, the NYPD said.

PurpleThrobber

So impregnating women is a COVID-vaccine?

Good to know. Let's get busy!!!!!

GrundleStiltzkin

Part 5

https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1250397734655401985