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Tequilla Thoughts: 2019 Deep Dive - The Running Game
Tequilla
Member Posts: 19,825
There's a lot of data and metrics out there and some more complicated than others, but one of the things I really like to do is look at some really simple rate based stats and in particular, I'm very interested in how the performance compares to prior years and within the context of the conference as a whole. All of the data that I will be presenting are relative to conference only stats ... this makes sure that we're looking at comparable data across the board and eliminating the outliers of beating up on overmatched teams in the non-conference.
Yards per Carry
Though 7 conference games this year, UW is averaging 4.35 yards per carry which is currently good for 5th in the conference. With remaining games against Colorado and Wazzu (who rank 10th and 12th respectively), there's a good chance that this number will uptick some over the remainder of the year. I suspect by the end of the season, the number will increase up to the 4.5 yards per carry range and likely get to the Top 3 in the conference.
Given that Eason isn't a running QB (on the year 30 carries for -31 yards), the overall yards per carry number is largely representative of the running game on the whole.
For perspective, the yards per carry for UW in conference is as follows since 2016:
2016: 5.40
2017: 5.31
2018: 4.38
2019: 4.35
For the conference, the average yards per carry is at 4.19 yards, which places UW at 4% better than the conference average. The trending in relation to the conference is similar to the overall yards per carry exhibiting in performance regressing towards the conference mean:
2016: +16%
2017: +15%
2018: +3%
2019: +4%
Coaching/Positional Evaluation
In evaluating the run game, you have 2 primary positional groups (RB/OL) and a secondary positional group (TE).
From a RB perspective, you have some constants over the time period with Boner as the RB coach and for 3 of the 4 seasons the lead back being Myles Gaskin. Not surprising, Gaskin went from averaging 5.7, 5.8, and 6.2 yards per carry over his 1st 3 years (2015-2017) down to 4.9 yards per carry in 2018. Did Gaskin fall off? Did Boner's coaching fall off? Or something else at play here? Salvon's averaging 5.8 yards per carry this year ... which is significantly better than I was expecting. While Salvon's got his warts, it's hard to argue with the overall production and I don't feel like his down games have been because of him and more what was provided for him. While we can complain about Boner's recruiting emphasis at times, it just doesn't seem to me that the overall production of the RBs is on his coaching ... which is a difference. So what are the possible explanations as I see them (in no particular order):
1) The downtick of the passing game has resulted in defenses able to put more numbers in the box and thereby not only limiting explosiveness in the run game, but also increasing the number of neutral or negative plays in the run game. I think that there's some substantial truth here when you look at the ability of teams to put 8 in the box and bring safeties down to within 10 yards of the LOS. Even with Eason's arm, the lack of a threat in the passing game has allowed teams to force the WRs to beat them.
2) OL play has materially decreased since the hiring of Scott Huff. There are many out there that will admit that while Huff can recruit his coaching is suspect. Those that are on the Huff can't coach side would point out that he's returned essentially 5 starters this year and plenty of experience to last year's OL. The biggest evidence to me that it's not Huff is that his first year was 2017 and the performance YoY for 2016 to 2017 was essentially comparable in conference.
3) TE blocking being heavily underrated and materially changing in 2018 as we've traded receiving upside for blocking issues with Hunter Bryant. In thinking to 2016 and 2017, you're looking at Dissly and Sample as the primary blocking TEs and both were high end blockers. While I love Hunter and Cade, I don't think either of them at this point are the caliber of run blockers that Dissly and Sample are. My guess is that it's a contributing factor but not a primary factor in the change.
4) Predictable play calling leads to self-imposed challenges in the run game. While the % of run plays increased annually from 2016 - 2018, the number has dropped from 63% to 52% in 2019. A factor surely being the play from behind efforts against Stanford and Utah, but I also think a sign of the predictability. I haven't gone back and charted the plays from 2016 onward (would be great if somebody could pull this info for conference games), but it feels like we've become overly predictable in our down/distance play calling and predominantly run on 1st and 10. That predictability leads to being behind the chains and creating a lot of 3rd and long opportunities. My gut says that this is a major factor.
Overall Conclusion
As we will see when looking at the offense as a whole, the run game is really the most stable and consistent portion of our offense as it consistently rates above league average. My sense is that we create our own problems in play calling and the WR issues compound those issues. By and large I don't think the OL play is a major detriment and at least with respect to the run game it's purely circumstantial to throw the blame on the OL. Boner's largely been working with the same group (Myles/Salvon) and you can see improvement in both of them over the years. His recruiting may leave some to be desired but the on-field performance has been strong and his evaluations of players like Dick Newton are becoming points of evidence that he's actually not that bad.
However, the reality is that in both 2018 and 2019, the performance of the run game has worked its way back to league average. The constants over that time period are mediocre WR play and Bush Hamden as OC. While perhaps not a material surprise, diving into the run game really highlights that issues continue to point in that direction.
Yards per Carry
Though 7 conference games this year, UW is averaging 4.35 yards per carry which is currently good for 5th in the conference. With remaining games against Colorado and Wazzu (who rank 10th and 12th respectively), there's a good chance that this number will uptick some over the remainder of the year. I suspect by the end of the season, the number will increase up to the 4.5 yards per carry range and likely get to the Top 3 in the conference.
Given that Eason isn't a running QB (on the year 30 carries for -31 yards), the overall yards per carry number is largely representative of the running game on the whole.
For perspective, the yards per carry for UW in conference is as follows since 2016:
2016: 5.40
2017: 5.31
2018: 4.38
2019: 4.35
For the conference, the average yards per carry is at 4.19 yards, which places UW at 4% better than the conference average. The trending in relation to the conference is similar to the overall yards per carry exhibiting in performance regressing towards the conference mean:
2016: +16%
2017: +15%
2018: +3%
2019: +4%
Coaching/Positional Evaluation
In evaluating the run game, you have 2 primary positional groups (RB/OL) and a secondary positional group (TE).
From a RB perspective, you have some constants over the time period with Boner as the RB coach and for 3 of the 4 seasons the lead back being Myles Gaskin. Not surprising, Gaskin went from averaging 5.7, 5.8, and 6.2 yards per carry over his 1st 3 years (2015-2017) down to 4.9 yards per carry in 2018. Did Gaskin fall off? Did Boner's coaching fall off? Or something else at play here? Salvon's averaging 5.8 yards per carry this year ... which is significantly better than I was expecting. While Salvon's got his warts, it's hard to argue with the overall production and I don't feel like his down games have been because of him and more what was provided for him. While we can complain about Boner's recruiting emphasis at times, it just doesn't seem to me that the overall production of the RBs is on his coaching ... which is a difference. So what are the possible explanations as I see them (in no particular order):
1) The downtick of the passing game has resulted in defenses able to put more numbers in the box and thereby not only limiting explosiveness in the run game, but also increasing the number of neutral or negative plays in the run game. I think that there's some substantial truth here when you look at the ability of teams to put 8 in the box and bring safeties down to within 10 yards of the LOS. Even with Eason's arm, the lack of a threat in the passing game has allowed teams to force the WRs to beat them.
2) OL play has materially decreased since the hiring of Scott Huff. There are many out there that will admit that while Huff can recruit his coaching is suspect. Those that are on the Huff can't coach side would point out that he's returned essentially 5 starters this year and plenty of experience to last year's OL. The biggest evidence to me that it's not Huff is that his first year was 2017 and the performance YoY for 2016 to 2017 was essentially comparable in conference.
3) TE blocking being heavily underrated and materially changing in 2018 as we've traded receiving upside for blocking issues with Hunter Bryant. In thinking to 2016 and 2017, you're looking at Dissly and Sample as the primary blocking TEs and both were high end blockers. While I love Hunter and Cade, I don't think either of them at this point are the caliber of run blockers that Dissly and Sample are. My guess is that it's a contributing factor but not a primary factor in the change.
4) Predictable play calling leads to self-imposed challenges in the run game. While the % of run plays increased annually from 2016 - 2018, the number has dropped from 63% to 52% in 2019. A factor surely being the play from behind efforts against Stanford and Utah, but I also think a sign of the predictability. I haven't gone back and charted the plays from 2016 onward (would be great if somebody could pull this info for conference games), but it feels like we've become overly predictable in our down/distance play calling and predominantly run on 1st and 10. That predictability leads to being behind the chains and creating a lot of 3rd and long opportunities. My gut says that this is a major factor.
Overall Conclusion
As we will see when looking at the offense as a whole, the run game is really the most stable and consistent portion of our offense as it consistently rates above league average. My sense is that we create our own problems in play calling and the WR issues compound those issues. By and large I don't think the OL play is a major detriment and at least with respect to the run game it's purely circumstantial to throw the blame on the OL. Boner's largely been working with the same group (Myles/Salvon) and you can see improvement in both of them over the years. His recruiting may leave some to be desired but the on-field performance has been strong and his evaluations of players like Dick Newton are becoming points of evidence that he's actually not that bad.
However, the reality is that in both 2018 and 2019, the performance of the run game has worked its way back to league average. The constants over that time period are mediocre WR play and Bush Hamden as OC. While perhaps not a material surprise, diving into the run game really highlights that issues continue to point in that direction.
Comments
The OL has looked ok, Eason Ok, Ahmed Ok and yet the offense still sucks... I have zero confidence in the offense converting a down critical or short yardage play unless it’s a handoff to newton.
If UW was converting 3rd downs at even a mediocre top 30 rate the offense would look significantly better.
Idk if it’s the OLs fault, idk if it’s Ahmed chopping his feet fault, idk if it’s Byrant dropping passes fault, idk if it’s the coaches play calling fault... probably all of them...
But maybe a deep dive from @Tequilla specifically into 3rd down conversions, given its historically bad year, might shed more light on what is or isn’t working in the passing/running game for the offense.
Mele stepping in relatively well for Harris is a definite positive. Bain a little more up and down but you can see the ceiling.
I don’t view Huff as a material issue at this point. Any argument against him would likely come from the blow the entire offense approach.
My hypothesis is that we are largely bad on 3rd down because of poor playing calling (and execution) leading us into a high % of 3rd and long situations. When you throw in the fact that the play calling is predictable (see the Wildcat) and you get into full on self sabotage mode.