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Mike Vorel: Stars Are For Losers
DoogCourics
Member Posts: 5,739
From our local hero:
Chris Petersen is fond of saying that stats are for losers.
But so are losses, and the Huskies already have three of those.
So — promise you won’t tell Petersen — but let’s take a look at seven statistics that help explain the Washington Huskies’ 5-3 start.
4.66 yards per carry (50th nationally, 6th in the Pac-12)
This statistic, while certainly nothing to sneeze at, may actually be a bit deceptive. Wipe away quarterback sacks, unfortunate fake field goals and wide receiver end-arounds, and UW’s running backs have rushed for 1,385 yards, 5.65 yards per carry and 14 touchdowns in eight games. Junior Salvon Ahmed has proven a productive Pac-12 starter, contributing 662 rushing yards, 5.8 yards per carry and seven touchdowns in seven games.
Put simply, when the Huskies run the ball well, they (usually) win. In their five wins, UW is averaging 195.4 rushing yards per game and 5.06 yards per carry with 13 touchdowns on the ground.
In their three losses, the Huskies have managed just 133 rushing yards per game and 3.91 yards per carry with a grand total of two rushing scores.
So, a bit of future advice? Trust Ahmed. Trust redshirt freshman Richard Newton (if healthy). Trust Sean McGrew. Trust Nick Harris, Trey Adams and the rest of that offensive line. Trust the running game, and it will handsomely reward you.
8.5 yards per pass attempt (20th nationally, 2nd in the Pac-12)
OK, so UW’s passing game is far from perfect. But, given the opportunity, junior quarterback Jacob Eason has not hesitated to throw downfield. In fact, Washington’s 13 completions of 30 yards or more also ranks 28th nationally and tied for fourth in the Pac-12 (with air raid offenses Washington State and USC landing at No. 1 and 2, respectively). The Huskies are currently producing the second-most 30-plus yard completions per game in the Chris Petersen era, behind only a 2016 squad featuring both John Ross and Dante Pettis.
That figure is fairly impressive, considering Washington’s obvious limitations at the wide receiver position. It could also likely be improved even further by targeting freshman Puka Nacua, whose seven receptions this season have resulted in two touchdowns and a whopping 24 yards per catch.
100% field goal percentage (1st nationally, 1st in the Pac-12)
You probably don’t need to be a career mathematician to deduce that a perfect field goal percentage will inevitably rank first in both the nation and the Pac-12. But, get this: of the 11 teams with perfect field goal percentages, Washington’s 15 attempts and makes are three more than the next-highest number (Wake Forest, 12). The Huskies have also played one more game than the other 10 teams technically tied for the top spot.
So, does that make Peyton Henry currently the country’s top field goal kicker? You could make that argument. (You could also remind yourself that he has only attempted one kick of 40 yards or more, or depress yourself completely by concluding that Henry’s high array of short makes are an unfortunate byproduct of Washington’s consistently incompetent red zone offense. But why not keep it positive?)
The point is that, in his second season as the starter, Henry has surpassed all reasonable expectations. He has become automatic. And for a team with decidedly disappointing special teams performances in 2018, that is certainly worth acknowledging.
0.75 turnover margin (18th nationally, 2nd in the Pac-12)
There are two important pieces to this metric.
First: Washington’s 13 forced turnovers rank 22nd nationally and second in the Pac-12, behind Oregon. Of those 13 forced turnovers, eight have been interceptions.
Yes, Jimmy Lake’s defense has not stopped the run nearly as well this season. Yes, that talented yet inexperienced secondary is allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt, up from 5.8 yards per attempt (eighth nationally) in 2018. Yes, the Huskies have crammed a season’s supply of missed tackles into their first eight games.
But — and this is an enormous but — the UW defense is still taking the football away. If the turnovers dry up, the Huskies are in trouble.
Need proof? In UW’s eight wins, its defense has forced 13 turnovers. In its three losses, Washington has produced zero.
Second: Washington has surrendered just seven turnovers of its own in eight games, which ranks 22nd nationally. And of the 21 teams ahead of the Huskies, none of them have played eight games. So props to Eason, who has thrown just three interceptions. Props to his skill players, who have rarely fumbled the football.
Props to Petersen and Co. — in this department, at least.
4.88 tackles for loss per game (105th nationally, 10th in the Pac-12)
Don’t tell me Washington’s defense is not designed to disrupt opposing offenses. From 2014 to 2017, the Huskies averaged at least 6.5 tackles for loss per game each season. They weren’t a national power in that area, but UW consistently finished in the first half of the Pac-12 — and paired that pressure with an impressive secondary.
Then, the decline. UW averaged just 4.57 tackles for loss per game last season, which landed 118th nationally and 11th in the Pac-12. They’re only marginally better through eight games this fall.
And if you want to talk about sacks, we can talk about sacks. The Huskies have made a more noticeable improvement in that area, from 1.71 sacks per game last season to two sacks per game in 2019. But that still ranks just seventh in the conference (tied with Washington State) and 76th nationally.
Benning Potoa’e (6 TFL, 4 sacks) and Ryan Bowman (4.5 TFL, 4 sacks) have done their part. But the Huskies need more from their defensive line. They need more from physically immense sophomore outside linebacker Joe Tryon. They need Laiatu Latu to emerge in the back half of his freshman season.
A disruptive defense is a dangerous defense. UW needs to be more dangerous.
35.35% third down conversion percentage (101st nationally, 12th in the Pac-12)
A season ago, UW converted 45.36% of its third-down attempts, which finished tops in the Pac-12.
In this specific statistic, the Huskies have plummeted from first to last.
Washington’s 35.8 points per game rank third in the Pac-12, behind Washington State and Oregon. Petersen’s team sits in the top half of the conference in most offensive metrics.
So, how could that same offense be so consistently calamitous on third down? Perhaps that comes down to play-calling; perhaps second-year offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan is too conservative, or predictable. Perhaps the Huskies have simply (and repeatedly) failed to execute.
But of the top five teams nationally in third down conversions, four are currently ranked in the top 25 (with the exception being 5-2 Air Force, which runs an option offense). Three are undefeated. Two are College Football Playoff favorites Ohio State and Alabama. The five teams have a combined record of 30-4.
So, yes: this is an important area.
4.19 opponent yards per carry (69th nationally, 6th in the Pac-12)
Washington’s rushing defense has not been good enough. You already know that. And in conference match ups, the results have been even worse. In five games against Pac-12 opponents, UW is allowing an average of 179.6 rushing yards and 4.7 yards per carry with seven total touchdowns.
A year ago, UW surrendered just 117.1 rushing yards per game and 3.63 yards per carry in conference play, as well as 10 touchdowns in 10 games.
Through eight games, the Huskies have also allowed 38 opponent rushes of 10 yards or more, which ranks 89th nationally and ninth in the Pac-12.
And it may get worse before it gets better. Next Saturday, UW hosts a Utah team that leads the Pac-12 in rushing offense (217.71 yards per game) and rushing touchdowns (18) and sits second in yards per carry (5.15).
But, hey: there’s no better time to improve than the present.
Chris Petersen is fond of saying that stats are for losers.
But so are losses, and the Huskies already have three of those.
So — promise you won’t tell Petersen — but let’s take a look at seven statistics that help explain the Washington Huskies’ 5-3 start.
4.66 yards per carry (50th nationally, 6th in the Pac-12)
This statistic, while certainly nothing to sneeze at, may actually be a bit deceptive. Wipe away quarterback sacks, unfortunate fake field goals and wide receiver end-arounds, and UW’s running backs have rushed for 1,385 yards, 5.65 yards per carry and 14 touchdowns in eight games. Junior Salvon Ahmed has proven a productive Pac-12 starter, contributing 662 rushing yards, 5.8 yards per carry and seven touchdowns in seven games.
Put simply, when the Huskies run the ball well, they (usually) win. In their five wins, UW is averaging 195.4 rushing yards per game and 5.06 yards per carry with 13 touchdowns on the ground.
In their three losses, the Huskies have managed just 133 rushing yards per game and 3.91 yards per carry with a grand total of two rushing scores.
So, a bit of future advice? Trust Ahmed. Trust redshirt freshman Richard Newton (if healthy). Trust Sean McGrew. Trust Nick Harris, Trey Adams and the rest of that offensive line. Trust the running game, and it will handsomely reward you.
8.5 yards per pass attempt (20th nationally, 2nd in the Pac-12)
OK, so UW’s passing game is far from perfect. But, given the opportunity, junior quarterback Jacob Eason has not hesitated to throw downfield. In fact, Washington’s 13 completions of 30 yards or more also ranks 28th nationally and tied for fourth in the Pac-12 (with air raid offenses Washington State and USC landing at No. 1 and 2, respectively). The Huskies are currently producing the second-most 30-plus yard completions per game in the Chris Petersen era, behind only a 2016 squad featuring both John Ross and Dante Pettis.
That figure is fairly impressive, considering Washington’s obvious limitations at the wide receiver position. It could also likely be improved even further by targeting freshman Puka Nacua, whose seven receptions this season have resulted in two touchdowns and a whopping 24 yards per catch.
100% field goal percentage (1st nationally, 1st in the Pac-12)
You probably don’t need to be a career mathematician to deduce that a perfect field goal percentage will inevitably rank first in both the nation and the Pac-12. But, get this: of the 11 teams with perfect field goal percentages, Washington’s 15 attempts and makes are three more than the next-highest number (Wake Forest, 12). The Huskies have also played one more game than the other 10 teams technically tied for the top spot.
So, does that make Peyton Henry currently the country’s top field goal kicker? You could make that argument. (You could also remind yourself that he has only attempted one kick of 40 yards or more, or depress yourself completely by concluding that Henry’s high array of short makes are an unfortunate byproduct of Washington’s consistently incompetent red zone offense. But why not keep it positive?)
The point is that, in his second season as the starter, Henry has surpassed all reasonable expectations. He has become automatic. And for a team with decidedly disappointing special teams performances in 2018, that is certainly worth acknowledging.
0.75 turnover margin (18th nationally, 2nd in the Pac-12)
There are two important pieces to this metric.
First: Washington’s 13 forced turnovers rank 22nd nationally and second in the Pac-12, behind Oregon. Of those 13 forced turnovers, eight have been interceptions.
Yes, Jimmy Lake’s defense has not stopped the run nearly as well this season. Yes, that talented yet inexperienced secondary is allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt, up from 5.8 yards per attempt (eighth nationally) in 2018. Yes, the Huskies have crammed a season’s supply of missed tackles into their first eight games.
But — and this is an enormous but — the UW defense is still taking the football away. If the turnovers dry up, the Huskies are in trouble.
Need proof? In UW’s eight wins, its defense has forced 13 turnovers. In its three losses, Washington has produced zero.
Second: Washington has surrendered just seven turnovers of its own in eight games, which ranks 22nd nationally. And of the 21 teams ahead of the Huskies, none of them have played eight games. So props to Eason, who has thrown just three interceptions. Props to his skill players, who have rarely fumbled the football.
Props to Petersen and Co. — in this department, at least.
4.88 tackles for loss per game (105th nationally, 10th in the Pac-12)
Don’t tell me Washington’s defense is not designed to disrupt opposing offenses. From 2014 to 2017, the Huskies averaged at least 6.5 tackles for loss per game each season. They weren’t a national power in that area, but UW consistently finished in the first half of the Pac-12 — and paired that pressure with an impressive secondary.
Then, the decline. UW averaged just 4.57 tackles for loss per game last season, which landed 118th nationally and 11th in the Pac-12. They’re only marginally better through eight games this fall.
And if you want to talk about sacks, we can talk about sacks. The Huskies have made a more noticeable improvement in that area, from 1.71 sacks per game last season to two sacks per game in 2019. But that still ranks just seventh in the conference (tied with Washington State) and 76th nationally.
Benning Potoa’e (6 TFL, 4 sacks) and Ryan Bowman (4.5 TFL, 4 sacks) have done their part. But the Huskies need more from their defensive line. They need more from physically immense sophomore outside linebacker Joe Tryon. They need Laiatu Latu to emerge in the back half of his freshman season.
A disruptive defense is a dangerous defense. UW needs to be more dangerous.
35.35% third down conversion percentage (101st nationally, 12th in the Pac-12)
A season ago, UW converted 45.36% of its third-down attempts, which finished tops in the Pac-12.
In this specific statistic, the Huskies have plummeted from first to last.
Washington’s 35.8 points per game rank third in the Pac-12, behind Washington State and Oregon. Petersen’s team sits in the top half of the conference in most offensive metrics.
So, how could that same offense be so consistently calamitous on third down? Perhaps that comes down to play-calling; perhaps second-year offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan is too conservative, or predictable. Perhaps the Huskies have simply (and repeatedly) failed to execute.
But of the top five teams nationally in third down conversions, four are currently ranked in the top 25 (with the exception being 5-2 Air Force, which runs an option offense). Three are undefeated. Two are College Football Playoff favorites Ohio State and Alabama. The five teams have a combined record of 30-4.
So, yes: this is an important area.
4.19 opponent yards per carry (69th nationally, 6th in the Pac-12)
Washington’s rushing defense has not been good enough. You already know that. And in conference match ups, the results have been even worse. In five games against Pac-12 opponents, UW is allowing an average of 179.6 rushing yards and 4.7 yards per carry with seven total touchdowns.
A year ago, UW surrendered just 117.1 rushing yards per game and 3.63 yards per carry in conference play, as well as 10 touchdowns in 10 games.
Through eight games, the Huskies have also allowed 38 opponent rushes of 10 yards or more, which ranks 89th nationally and ninth in the Pac-12.
And it may get worse before it gets better. Next Saturday, UW hosts a Utah team that leads the Pac-12 in rushing offense (217.71 yards per game) and rushing touchdowns (18) and sits second in yards per carry (5.15).
But, hey: there’s no better time to improve than the present.
Comments
Biggest issues have been tackling, playing shitty players (Baccallia and Manu the two main culprits, and coaching decisions and play calling.
Fire everyone
...call me!!!