Bracketology Update

dawgs206

Most Bracketoligists have us? in the 8-9 seed range, which puts us comfortably in for now, but realistically not that far off the bubble. CBS https://cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/ does a pretty good job of ranking the teams and showing their resume at the same time.

We? have a good NET ranking (29), RPI (21), and NC SOS (17). We'll end up with a lower SOS (currently 53, but will drop to the 80-90 range) and the biggest thing missing from our? resume is key wins. The new Quad system puts more of an emphasis on road games. Oregon is currently our? best win and only Quad 1 win (and barely) to go along with three Quad 2 wins (San Diego, @Oregon State, @Utah). The biggest games left are UCLA (Quad 2/3), @UA (Quad 1), @ASU (Quad 1), and home vs UO and OSU, which are borderline Quad 2/3 games depending on how they finish.

The easiest way to strengthen our? resume is obviously sweeping the Arizona schools so we can worry more about seeding vs just making the tourney. Having the Oregon schools finish out strong will also help.

Exciting times to actually have a decent team for the first time in awhile and worry about tournament implications.

greenblood

LOFL at Oregon and Arizona being quad 1. ASU is the only other team in the conference that isn't low seed NIT level or worse.

I know Washington can't do anything to fix this, they can only play the games on the schedule. But the same can be said about Holy Cross, Fairfield, Bucknell, Rider, Colgate, etc. Yes, I'm comparing the Pac 12 to one bid mid-major conferences. The Pac 12 is really that bad.

dawgs206

greenblood said:

LOFL at Oregon and Arizona being quad 1. ASU is the only other team in the conference that isn't low seed NIT level or worse.

I know Washington can't do anything to fix this, they can only play the games on the schedule. But the same can be said about Holy Cross, Fairfield, Bucknell, Rider, Colgate, etc. Yes, I'm comparing the Pac 12 to one bid mid-major conferences. The Pac 12 is really that bad.

The Pac-12 is definitely trash and should only be a 1-2 bid league, but it is still much better than the typical 1 bid league. Cal and WSU are closer to the average team in those leagues than the bottom.

If you look at the mid-major conferences that are traditionally better and might usually get 2-4 teams like the A-10 (VCU, Dayton, Rhode Island, Davidson, St. Louis, etc) and Mountain West (San Diego State, UNLV, Nevada, etc) they are bad this year and look more like 1, maybe 2 bid conferences. Even the Big East only looks like a 3-4 bid league.

The bottom of the tourney field is going to be wide open this year. Lunardi has Nebraska as a 10 seed and Indiana as an 11 seed right now and they are both 3-7 in conference (Big-10 is stacked, but still).

2001400ex

greenblood said:

LOFL at Oregon and Arizona being quad 1. ASU is the only other team in the conference that isn't low seed NIT level or worse.

I know Washington can't do anything to fix this, they can only play the games on the schedule. But the same can be said about Holy Cross, Fairfield, Bucknell, Rider, Colgate, etc. Yes, I'm comparing the Pac 12 to one bid mid-major conferences. The Pac 12 is really that bad.

I think now quad 1 is top 50 teams at home and top 75 road game. Hence the Oregon road game.

ExtraChrisB

2001400ex said:

greenblood said:

LOFL at Oregon and Arizona being quad 1. ASU is the only other team in the conference that isn't low seed NIT level or worse.

I know Washington can't do anything to fix this, they can only play the games on the schedule. But the same can be said about Holy Cross, Fairfield, Bucknell, Rider, Colgate, etc. Yes, I'm comparing the Pac 12 to one bid mid-major conferences. The Pac 12 is really that bad.

I think now quad 1 is top 50 teams at home and top 75 road game. Hence the Oregon road game.

Quad 1 is 1-30 at home, 1-50 neutral, 1-75 on the road.

2001400ex

ExtraChrisB said:

2001400ex said:

greenblood said:

LOFL at Oregon and Arizona being quad 1. ASU is the only other team in the conference that isn't low seed NIT level or worse.

I know Washington can't do anything to fix this, they can only play the games on the schedule. But the same can be said about Holy Cross, Fairfield, Bucknell, Rider, Colgate, etc. Yes, I'm comparing the Pac 12 to one bid mid-major conferences. The Pac 12 is really that bad.

I think now quad 1 is top 50 teams at home and top 75 road game. Hence the Oregon road game.

Quad 1 is 1-30 at home, 1-50 neutral, 1-75 on the road.

Or that. I was right on 1 of 3. Better than usual for me.

UWhuskytskeet

And now Oregon is down 22 to Colorado.

dawgs206

UWhuskytskeet said:

And now Oregon is down 22 to Colorado.

@Oregon State might replace @Oregon for a Quad 1 win. We? Don’t have a lot of opportunities for key wins, but we’ll be okay. Nebraska, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Texas are all bubble teams that lost so it wasn’t a bad weekend for UW. Win and things will take care of themselves.

Just makes @UA and @ASU that much more important for the overall resume.

dawgs206

Up to the 7 line on CBS. Sweep the Arizona schools and we're probably on the 5 line.

DawgFader

Not the dreaded 5-12

2001400ex

We are up to 19 in RPI and 27 in NET. 40 in Sagarin.

I hate the 7-10 seeds, have to play a 1 or 2 in the second round. Hoping for a 6 seed. Need to keep winning for that to happen. If we get the right 3 or 4/5 seed to play in the second round. A sweet 16 would be possible.

Edwin_Bambino

greenblood said:

LOFL at Oregon and Arizona being quad 1. ASU is the only other team in the conference that isn't low seed NIT level or worse.

I know Washington can't do anything to fix this, they can only play the games on the schedule. But the same can be said about Holy Cross, Fairfield, Bucknell, Rider, Colgate, etc. Yes, I'm comparing the Pac 12 to one bid mid-major conferences. The Pac 12 is really that bad.

Do not insult #mypatriotleauge by comparing its standard of basketball play to the lowly PAC 12.

dawgs206

ESPN's Bubble Watch is now up. Good place to follow the bubble as more teams "lock" up spots. Has UW as "should be in" and the only other Pac-12 team on the bubble is ASU. We are a 7-8 seed most places.

Find it interesting that Nevada is #6 in both the AP and Coaches Poll, but most places have them as a 4-5 seed because their wins look like ours. We need to beat the Arizona schools to have much hope of getting higher than a 7 seed unless we essentially win out.

2001400ex

We are now 2-3 in quad 1 wins and 2-1 in quad 2. Minny Dropped to 52 giving us the quad 2 loss.

dawgs206

2001400ex said:

We are now 2-3 in quad 1 wins and 2-1 in quad 2. Minny Dropped to 52 giving us the quad 2 loss.

This whole time my dumbass thought they were using the RPI to determine the Quad rankings instead of NET.

dawgs206

https://ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings Up to #25 in the NET ranking, #32 KenPom, #39 Sagarin.

With ASU dropping from 61 to 78 (NET) we lost a chance at a Quad 1 win. Looks like we only have 2 now with Oregon State also losing. Don't see how we move up another seed after this weekend even with a win @ASU with our "big" wins looking less than impressive.

2001400ex

dawgs206 said:

https://ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings Up to #25 in the NET ranking, #32 KenPom, #39 Sagarin.

With ASU dropping from 61 to 78 (NET) we lost a chance at a Quad 1 win. Looks like we only have 2 now with Oregon State also losing. Don't see how we move up another seed after this weekend even with a win @ASU with our "big" wins looking less than impressive.

15 in RPI also, not that that matters anymore. Other than I think they use the SOS from there, which we have a strong non Conference SOS.

dawgs206

2001400ex said:

dawgs206 said:

https://ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings Up to #25 in the NET ranking, #32 KenPom, #39 Sagarin.

With ASU dropping from 61 to 78 (NET) we lost a chance at a Quad 1 win. Looks like we only have 2 now with Oregon State also losing. Don't see how we move up another seed after this weekend even with a win @ASU with our "big" wins looking less than impressive.

15 in RPI also, not that that matters anymore. Other than I think they use the SOS from there, which we have a strong non Conference SOS.

Our current SOS is 50 and our nonconference SOS is 17. The only problem is we didn't beat anyone worth a damn in nonconference and our SOS is going to drop below the 80's. Our resume is going to be comparable to Buffalo, Lipscomb, Davidson, etc unless Oregon, Arizona, ASU, and Oregon State help us down the stretch. Pac-12 looks like a one bid league unless we don't win the tournament.

PurpleThrobber

Dawgs will get brownie points on a 'good' loss at Gonzaga. A W on there on the road would have been huge - but that loss is going to count a helluva lot more than pasting Kal or Cuog.

2001400ex

PurpleThrobber said:

Dawgs will get brownie points on a 'good' loss at Gonzaga. A W on there on the road would have been huge - but that loss is going to count a helluva lot more than pasting Kal or Cuog.

Yeah and net takes into account margin of victory and road so Gonzaga was a good game.

dawgs206

Dropped to a 9 seed in Lunardi's and Jerry Palm's (CBS) bracket. Getting pretty close to the bubble line again.