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Swaye
Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 41,062
Courtesy of @HuskyClaws
TYFYS
I can never find this motherfucker when I need it so it's getting pinned. Pinned threads are like lot lizards at the Enumclaw Truck Stop. Everywhere.
TYFYS
I can never find this motherfucker when I need it so it's getting pinned. Pinned threads are like lot lizards at the Enumclaw Truck Stop. Everywhere.
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PM to @HuskyClaws can you do something about the colors?
I believe that brings us up to 46 blue chips. Time for some maff.
Let's assume Murphy is gone. Rapp is obviously gone. Bryant declaring won't effect this.
Next year we'll have 4 blue chip seniors (Adams, Wellington, Potato, and Roberts).
We'll have 11 blue chip juniors (Eason, Jones, McGrew, Ahmed, Bryant, Watty, Gilchrist, Levi, Taylor, Molden, McKinney).
We'll have 3 blue chip sophomores (Bynum, Bain, Ngata). Low due to redshirts.
We'll have 12 blue chip redshirt freshmen (Sirmon, Yankoff, Osborne, Spiker, Lowe, Mele, Bynum, Tuli, Taimani, Jackson Sirmon, Gordon, Irvin).
That's 30 blue chips.
Our incoming recruiting class currently has 12:
Morris, Davis, Kalepo, Buelow, Paama, Bandes, Tuitele, Latu, Calvert, KamFab, McDuffie, Williams).
That puts us at 42 blue chips on the roster. 43 clears the 50% ratio that every champion has had.
Let's do our best case hypothetical. Turner, Heimuli, To'oto'o, Nacua.
Our incoming class has 16 (!) blue chips in that case and 46 on the roster.
That would put us at about 54 percent on our blue chip ratio -- smack dab in between Oklahoma and Texas this year.
Of course, we're not getting all four.
We might end up with two of those guys. Let's say Turner sticks and we end with Heimuli and Patterson.
That's 44 blue chips and puts us at 51.7 percent. Right in front of Notre Dame and right behind PSU and Oklahoma.
In what I think is the worst case, where we only get Heimuli, we're at 43 blue chips and 50.6 percent, which is essentially the same as Notre Dame.
The 50% blue chip ratio is a prerequisite for winning a national championship. Bud Elliott tracked it back to 2005 at least, and 2004 USC and 2003 LSU were almost definitely there as well considering it's Saban and Meyer we are talking about.
Auburn 2010 (maybe 50%, maybe not, data got messed up) may not have been but Cam Newton was their QB.
Clemson was low in 2016 but had Deshaun Watson.
It seems an elite QB is worth about 10% in the ratio.
There were only 13 teams with that ratio this year, and 4 of those teams made the playoff.
If we want to win a national championship, we are now finally in the region where teams have won recently.
And that's not even considering non-blue chip guys who were either underrated or are/will be big contributors:
Hampton, Fautanu, Tuputala, Curne, Bowman, Tryon, M Bryant, Otton, Culp.
Yes there will obviously be issues still with depth because of some shitty recruiting but the talent is now there.
So while getting to 50% definitely puts UW in a position to be in the CFP discussion (and definitely well above what anybody in the P12 will be at besides USC), it's almost a guarantee that we're still going to be punching above our weight class in the games against Bama and Clemson.
But that's ok in my mind because to get to that National Championship Level, we need to climb the following ladder:
1) Establish ourselves as the premier team in the P12
2) Put self in position to be a perennial NY6 and CFP contender
3) Consistently get into the CFP
4) Win games in the CFP
5) Win National Title
How are we progressing in this regard?
1) Won 2 of the last 3 P12 titles and won/shared the P12 North in 2 of the last 3 years. The 2 games (minimum) over the next 2 years with USC will be HUGE for us in regard to driving home the point to SoCal recruits that if you want to stay on the West Coast and win at a high level, the place is UW. Win those games, continue the trending in the North/P12 and get to 5 straight outright and/or shared P12 North Titles and 4 of 5 P12 titles. That's a decided trend for any West Coast Elite kid to look in the face.
2) 3 straight trips to the NY6 Bowls is working in the right direction and a berth in the CFP also is in the right direction. The negative on this side is that we've yet to win a game in this setting.
3) A 50% or greater entry into the CFP is probably the realistic high-end goal - we're obviously behind the pace here but this is a forward looking goal in my mind that will become more achievable as the talent continues to uptick.
4) Obviouisly haven't done this.
5) Obviously haven't done this
Let's be very clear here, winning a National Championship is hard. We've shared the '91 title and if you start getting creative you can start including '60, '84, etc. So any expectation of winning more than 1-2 over the next 10-15 years is the definition of aspirational. Not saying it isn't possible, but if that is a standard being used to define success that's most likely going to set you up for failure.
The realistic expectations to me with respect to these goals are as follows:
1) Play for the P12 Title 4 out of 5 years and win 50% of the matchups against USC and 100% against anybody else
2) Be in a NY6 Bowl 4 out of every 5 years (half as P12 Champion and remaining as an at-large selection being in the Top 10)
3) Be in the CFP 2-3x in a rolling 5 year period
4) Win 1 out of 3 games in the CFP against Alabama or Clemson (in the current world); Win 50% against anybody else
5) Win 1 out of 2 games in the CFP Title Game
Just doing the math, that's going to put 1-2 National Titles over the next 10-15 years as a real high level of achievement.
Over the last 3 years we’ve only had 3 impact true freshman, averaging one per year. Rapp, Bryant, and to a lesser extent Ahmed. Harris started and Fuller played a lot but I’m not counting them as impact freshman bc they were less than Jags at the time.
I really don’t know who from the 2019 class could be impact TF. Most of the best players are on the line where it’s the hardest to contribute early. My early guesses would be Calvert, Latu, and Heimuli if we get him.
ILB isn't super deep. Calvert has a chance to play, so does Heimuli if he pops. Tafisi and maybe Sirmon are taking off their redshirts so we'll have to see how they are in spring ball. Keep an eye on this LB, if not for a scholly, at least ST: https://gohuskies.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=7012
McDuffie is a favorite of mine so would love to see him in 2019. Turner will obviously play if he sticks.
I don't see any TF playing on offense. Everything is stacked there and we don't have a 5 star RB coming in.