Race Bannon's hero Nate Silver weighs in

YellowSnow

If our? Kewgs run the table, 52% chance of making CFP. Dawgs 30% probability to win Pac, Kewgs 31% and Yoots at 28%.

https://twitter.com/WestcoastCfb/status/1062837871483084800

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

RaceBannon

NOC

YellowSnow

RaceBannon said:

NOC

Agree. I just like looking at the pretty grid and seeing the different percentages.

Mad_Son

RaceBannon said:

NOC

IC

UW_Doog_Bot

IF they win out.

AZDuck

2001400ex

They have pretty much zero chance. Michigan, Ohio State (play each other, winner goes) is ahead of them. Notre Dame (unless they lose to USC El oh el). Georgia.

RaceBannon

If you watch a football game and wonder what the win percentage is during it you should chug some gas and swallow a match

A team with a big lead has a real good chance to win unless they don't

You're welcome

FireCohen

I hope ND will lose, so that that cough tears taste much better

sarktastic

Having Cuog end up #5 in CFP will unleash epic Leach theater.

LebamDawg

Bama will lose to Ga. in the SEC championship sending both of the SEC teams to the CFP dashing all hopes of anyone not named Clemson and ND.

Soon it will expand to 8 teams just so a team from the PAC12 and Big12 can make the CFP

HuskyJW

Coug Fan came up to my desk this morning...."I made plane reservations for Pac 12 Championship last night!"

This should end well.

FremontTroll

2001400ex said:

They have pretty much zero chance. Michigan, Ohio State (play each other, winner goes) is ahead of them. Notre Dame (unless they lose to USC El oh el). Georgia.

If you actually look at the source you would see that 538 has all those teams ahead of WSU along with Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Clemson.

You're just underestimating the number of losses still potentially out there the next two weeks plus championship games.

For example Notre Dame is about 25% to lose at home to Syracuse this Saturday. I estimate a similar line for next week @USC maybe slightly higher chances for USC. So Notre Dame is around 45% to lose a game. They probably aren't getting in over 12-1 WSU at 11-1 with no conference championship game and their shit schedule (unlucky that FSU, Stanford, and USC all suck this year.)

RaceBannon

FremontTroll said:

2001400ex said:

They have pretty much zero chance. Michigan, Ohio State (play each other, winner goes) is ahead of them. Notre Dame (unless they lose to USC El oh el). Georgia.

If you actually look at the source you would see that 538 has all those teams ahead of WSU along with Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Clemson.

You're just underestimating the number of losses still potentially out there the next two weeks plus championship games.

For example Notre Dame is about 25% to lose at home to Syracuse this Saturday. I estimate a similar line for next week @USC maybe slightly higher chances for USC. So Notre Dame is around 45% to lose a game. They probably aren't getting in over 12-1 WSU at 11-1 with no conference championship game and their shit schedule (unlucky that FSU, Stanford, and USC all suck this year.)

That would be real interesting. One loss Notre Dame or one loss WSU. They could have the same loss or ND could have a win over USC who beat WSU which would give ESPN the cover they need to get Notre Dame in there

I think the committee gives credit to a ND schedule despite the perfect storm of shittiness those teams were this year. WSU didn't even try.

HillsboroDuck

RaceBannon said:

FremontTroll said:

2001400ex said:

They have pretty much zero chance. Michigan, Ohio State (play each other, winner goes) is ahead of them. Notre Dame (unless they lose to USC El oh el). Georgia.

If you actually look at the source you would see that 538 has all those teams ahead of WSU along with Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Clemson.

You're just underestimating the number of losses still potentially out there the next two weeks plus championship games.

For example Notre Dame is about 25% to lose at home to Syracuse this Saturday. I estimate a similar line for next week @USC maybe slightly higher chances for USC. So Notre Dame is around 45% to lose a game. They probably aren't getting in over 12-1 WSU at 11-1 with no conference championship game and their shit schedule (unlucky that FSU, Stanford, and USC all suck this year.)

That would be real interesting. One loss Notre Dame or one loss WSU. They could have the same loss or ND could have a win over USC who beat WSU which would give ESPN the cover they need to get Notre Dame in there

I think the committee gives credit to a ND schedule despite the perfect storm of shittiness those teams were this year. WSU didn't even try.

Agree. One loss ND is getting in over one loss WSU almost assuredly. ND has the Michigan win, WSU doesn't have anything close to that and isn't going to have the chance to add anything like it. The committee stresses over and over it's about who you beat more than anything else. Hypothetical one loss ND's wins are going to look better than hypothetical one loss WSU's.

sarktastic

#1 Alabama vs. #169 The Citidel Sat Nov 17. Who do you like?

Yup. Strength of Schedule matters

sarktastic

Laughable Cuog played @ #100 Wyoming and only scored 41 or shut out San Jose State when Alabama has to face #109, #169 and #119 @ home in comparison

FremontTroll

There are intangible factors on both sides that shouldn't matter but probably will.

Notre Dame- history, prestige, fanbase, brand name.
WSU- conference backing, better recent form(Notre Dame's only good win was week 1 with a loss in one of the last two weeks.)

Obviously how Michigan finishes would be huge as well. A win over 12-1 playoff bound Michigan looks a lot better than a win over 10-2 Rose or Fiesta Bowl bound Michigan.

All that being said this is all irrelevant since WSU isn't beating UW. And Jake Browning still sucks.

HillsboroDuck

FremontTroll said:

HillsboroDuck said:

RaceBannon said:

FremontTroll said:

2001400ex said:

They have pretty much zero chance. Michigan, Ohio State (play each other, winner goes) is ahead of them. Notre Dame (unless they lose to USC El oh el). Georgia.

If you actually look at the source you would see that 538 has all those teams ahead of WSU along with Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Clemson.

You're just underestimating the number of losses still potentially out there the next two weeks plus championship games.

For example Notre Dame is about 25% to lose at home to Syracuse this Saturday. I estimate a similar line for next week @USC maybe slightly higher chances for USC. So Notre Dame is around 45% to lose a game. They probably aren't getting in over 12-1 WSU at 11-1 with no conference championship game and their shit schedule (unlucky that FSU, Stanford, and USC all suck this year.)

That would be real interesting. One loss Notre Dame or one loss WSU. They could have the same loss or ND could have a win over USC who beat WSU which would give ESPN the cover they need to get Notre Dame in there

I think the committee gives credit to a ND schedule despite the perfect storm of shittiness those teams were this year. WSU didn't even try.

Agree. One loss ND is getting in over one loss WSU almost assuredly. ND has the Michigan win, WSU doesn't have anything close to that and isn't going to have the chance to add anything like it. The committee stresses over and over it's about who you beat more than anything else. Hypothetical one loss ND's wins are going to look better than hypothetical one loss WSU's.

I don't know about that. If ND loses @USC they would have the same loss. ND would have the best win but WSU would have the second through fifth best wins. And the only two wins of note that weren't at home.

Despite their affiliation with the ACC and 5 game quasi-conferemce schedule Notre Dame faced just ONE of the top SEVEN ACC teams- and that game was at hime.

vs. Michigan (Sagarin #3) ND
vs. UW (#10) WSU
@Stanford (#22) WSU
Neutral Utah (#14) WSU
vs. Utah (#14) WSU
vs. Stanford (#22) ND
@Northwestern (#33) ND
vs. Syracuse (#34) ND
@Colorado(#62) WSU
@VTech (#63) ND
@Wake (#73) ND
vs. Pitt (#42) ND
vs. Oregon (#44) WSU
vs. Arizona (#55) WSU
vs. Cal (#56) WSU
vs. FSU (#65) ND
vs. Vanderbilt (#66) ND
@Wyoming (#100) WSU
vs. EWash (#80) WSU
@Navy (#110) ND
@OSU (#116) WSU
vs. Ball State (#137) ND
vs. SJSU (#158) WSU

Why use Sagarin when you can use the playoff committees actual rankings at least for the top 25? I get using Sagarin as a proxy for what the playoff committee doesn't rank but the committee sees things fairly different from Sagarin (Sagarin is superior IMO but that's a different argument).

ND
4 - Michigan
12 - Syracuse @sure to drop in this case)
22 - @ Northwestern

WSU
18 - Washington (sure to drop in this case)
19 - Utah (neutral)

WSU's mid tier wins might be better but by the committee rankings ND has wins 1 and 2 and the best true road win. Now Syracuse could drop below Utah I suppose but they're not dropping below UW so at best WSU has wins 2 and 5 while ND gets wins 1, 3 and 4.

Not sure why you're using Sagarin but it's a very flawed process if you're trying to predict what the committee going to do IMO.

FremontTroll

HillsboroDuck said:

FremontTroll said:

HillsboroDuck said:

RaceBannon said:

FremontTroll said:

2001400ex said:

They have pretty much zero chance. Michigan, Ohio State (play each other, winner goes) is ahead of them. Notre Dame (unless they lose to USC El oh el). Georgia.

If you actually look at the source you would see that 538 has all those teams ahead of WSU along with Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Clemson.

You're just underestimating the number of losses still potentially out there the next two weeks plus championship games.

For example Notre Dame is about 25% to lose at home to Syracuse this Saturday. I estimate a similar line for next week @USC maybe slightly higher chances for USC. So Notre Dame is around 45% to lose a game. They probably aren't getting in over 12-1 WSU at 11-1 with no conference championship game and their shit schedule (unlucky that FSU, Stanford, and USC all suck this year.)

That would be real interesting. One loss Notre Dame or one loss WSU. They could have the same loss or ND could have a win over USC who beat WSU which would give ESPN the cover they need to get Notre Dame in there

I think the committee gives credit to a ND schedule despite the perfect storm of shittiness those teams were this year. WSU didn't even try.

Agree. One loss ND is getting in over one loss WSU almost assuredly. ND has the Michigan win, WSU doesn't have anything close to that and isn't going to have the chance to add anything like it. The committee stresses over and over it's about who you beat more than anything else. Hypothetical one loss ND's wins are going to look better than hypothetical one loss WSU's.

I don't know about that. If ND loses @USC they would have the same loss. ND would have the best win but WSU would have the second through fifth best wins. And the only two wins of note that weren't at home.

Despite their affiliation with the ACC and 5 game quasi-conferemce schedule Notre Dame faced just ONE of the top SEVEN ACC teams- and that game was at hime.

vs. Michigan (Sagarin #3) ND
vs. UW (#10) WSU
@Stanford (#22) WSU
Neutral Utah (#14) WSU
vs. Utah (#14) WSU
vs. Stanford (#22) ND
@Northwestern (#33) ND
vs. Syracuse (#34) ND
@Colorado(#62) WSU
@VTech (#63) ND
@Wake (#73) ND
vs. Pitt (#42) ND
vs. Oregon (#44) WSU
vs. Arizona (#55) WSU
vs. Cal (#56) WSU
vs. FSU (#65) ND
vs. Vanderbilt (#66) ND
@Wyoming (#100) WSU
vs. EWash (#80) WSU
@Navy (#110) ND
@OSU (#116) WSU
vs. Ball State (#137) ND
vs. SJSU (#158) WSU

Why use Sagarin when you can use the playoff committees actual rankings at least for the top 25? I get using Sagarin as a proxy for what the playoff committee doesn't rank but the committee sees things fairly different from Sagarin (Sagarin is superior IMO but that's a different argument).

ND
4 - Michigan
12 - Syracuse @sure to drop in this case)
22 - @ Northwestern

WSU
18 - Washington (sure to drop in this case)
19 - Utah (neutral)

WSU's mid tier wins might be better but by the committee rankings ND has wins 1 and 2 and the best true road win. Now Syracuse could drop below Utah I suppose but they're not dropping below UW so at best WSU has wins 2 and 5 while ND gets wins 1, 3 and 4.

Not sure why you're using Sagarin but it's a very flawed process if you're trying to predict what the committee going to do IMO.

Accidentally deleted my post while editing but you caught it.

I get your point but the committee's rankings fluctuate wildly and I think today's Sagarin ratings are a better approximation of the final committee rankings than today's committee rankings.

I guess Northwestern's final two or three games would be crucial as well as Syracuse @ BC.

FremontTroll

Interesting that Northwestern (6-1 in BIG) is an underdog at Minnesota (2-5) this weekend.