UW Doog Bot's Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator UCLA win Fupdate

UW_Doog_Bot

The probability of going undefeated in PAC 12 play jumped significantly this week from 27% to 36% while having 1 loss only gained 1%. It is however, still the most likely scenario at 40%. The combined probability of going 8-1 or better is now more than 75% and with a Stanford loss puts UW with a similar probability of winning the PAC 12 North. Most likely, this weeks game against Oregon will be the highest probability of a loss left on the schedule. If UW wins this game the probability of going undefeated in conference will for the first time be greater than the probability of incurring 1 loss.



Don't have the time yet to update PPG. Will try to get to it later this week if I get a chance.

Until then, here are some maff gifs

FireCohen

Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season

UW_Doog_Bot

WeakarmCobra said:

Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season

Hmmmm, good question, brb, yo.

RaceBannon

UCLA was my top loss possibility

9-0 here we come

UW_Doog_Bot

WeakarmCobra said:

Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season

Not that likely according to the model. Keep in mind that it won't account for things like teams quitting on games or being desperate for 1 win etc. though. It's purely a game to game % predictor.

UW_Doog_Bot

That got me thinking and I went ahead and plugged in both Stanford and Oregon's FPI probabilities. TLDR we've already won the North unless we? really manage to screw the pooch here.

Mad_Son

UW_Doog_Bot said:

WeakarmCobra said:

Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season

Not that likely according to the model. Keep in mind that it won't account for things like teams quitting on games or being desperate for 1 win etc. though. It's purely a game to game % predictor.

Wrong kind of perfect season.

Mad_Son

UW_Doog_Bot said:

That got me thinking and I went ahead and plugged in both Stanford and Oregon's FPI probabilities. TLDR we've already won the North unless we? really manage to screw the pooch here.

What does it look like with just conference games?

FireCohen

Mad_Son said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

WeakarmCobra said:

Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season

Not that likely according to the model. Keep in mind that it won't account for things like teams quitting on games or being desperate for 1 win etc. though. It's purely a game to game % predictor.

Wrong kind of perfect season.

Yeah, but still perfect right @TierbsHsotBoobs ?

UW_Doog_Bot

Mad_Son said:

UW_Doog_Bot said:

That got me thinking and I went ahead and plugged in both Stanford and Oregon's FPI probabilities. TLDR we've already won the North unless we? really manage to screw the pooch here.

What does it look like with just conference games?

All OOC games have been played and accounted for so are you asking me to do the basic arithmetic for you?



Stanford 6-3 and Oregon 5-4 most likely scenarios. Both 8-4 overall.

oregonblitzkrieg

Oregon going 8-4, not going to happen doog.