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Shit poast about using TBS metrics to predict the rest of our Pac games
YellowSnow
Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 33,887
One of the biggest disappointments of Petersen’s tenure at UW to date we can all agree has been his ability to knock off an opponent a vastly more talented roster (based on TBS rankings) than ours. Based on the Boise resume, I suspect we all expected this to have happened by now and it hasn’t which is sad. Since we turned the corner after the ASU debacle of 2015, his teams have run the table against the “have nots” of the Pac- i.e., WSU, OSU, CAL, U of A, Utah and Colorado. In the same time frame, we’ve gone 4-2 against programs with roughly equal TBS rankings to us?- i.e., ASU, Stanford and Oregon. And then Pete is 0-4 against USC (’16 version), PSU, Alabama and Auburn. I’m leaving UCLA out of this analysis because well….UCLA, and Drunk Sark in 2015.
TL; DR: Pete takes care of business against the little sisters of the poor, wins at home against = talent, and doesn’t get blown out against the blue bloods.
If we use attempt to use this trend to predict the rest of the conference season, here’s how things could play out in a dealing in hypotheticals bullshit type of fashion. Note – I am including how many 4/5 star recruits each school signed in the 2014- 17 cycles and left off 2018 because these kids are too young to have much of an impact yet. Shout out to @CokeGreaterThanPepsi and the TSIO website for this data. http://theseasonisover.com/recruiting-data/
ASU – They signed 29 blue chips over the 2014- 17 period compared to 30 for us and given the lack of our having a major talent edge over them at the time, it’s not surprising we struggled in the desert. But this is a home game and we’re favored by 19.5. I’m not sure if we cover, but this is a type of game Pete’s squad should win.
BYE – BYE still sucks and we aren’t losing to them at home.
UCLA – They signed 49 four/five star kids between 2014- 17 and the game is in Pasadena. On paper and at the beginning of the season, this seems like the type of game Pete would find a way to loose. But it seems like Chip is going to take a while to get his reads down in West Hollywood, so it feels like this game is a gimme now.
OREGON – 32 blue chips signed between 2014- 17. In spite of how much crap we give our feather friends since 70-21, there’s still a ton of talent on this roster. We should be very concerned about this game based on the talent level of Oregon and it being in Eugene. It’s tied with Stanford for the hardest game left on the schedule IMHO. Also Oregon has a bye the week prior so competitive advantage them.
COLORADO – 5 blue chips between 2014- 17 and a home game. A Pete UW team should handle this type of game easy.
CAL – 8 blue chips from 2014- 17. Again, despite being on the road, this is the type of game Pete’s team wins even if it’s close in the 1st half.
STANFORD – 34 blue chips. Roughly equal talent level and this game is for all the marbles in the North. But we should be up for this game in a big way and I think we handle Stanford at home.
OREGON ST – 5 blue chips. Easy win.
WSU – 8 blue chips. Jimmy No Balls owns the Kewg.
Conclusion: I don’t think we run the table in the Pac, but an 8-1 in conference season is still a reasonable expectation in spite of Browning and the OL.
TL; DR: Pete takes care of business against the little sisters of the poor, wins at home against = talent, and doesn’t get blown out against the blue bloods.
If we use attempt to use this trend to predict the rest of the conference season, here’s how things could play out in a dealing in hypotheticals bullshit type of fashion. Note – I am including how many 4/5 star recruits each school signed in the 2014- 17 cycles and left off 2018 because these kids are too young to have much of an impact yet. Shout out to @CokeGreaterThanPepsi and the TSIO website for this data. http://theseasonisover.com/recruiting-data/
ASU – They signed 29 blue chips over the 2014- 17 period compared to 30 for us and given the lack of our having a major talent edge over them at the time, it’s not surprising we struggled in the desert. But this is a home game and we’re favored by 19.5. I’m not sure if we cover, but this is a type of game Pete’s squad should win.
BYE – BYE still sucks and we aren’t losing to them at home.
UCLA – They signed 49 four/five star kids between 2014- 17 and the game is in Pasadena. On paper and at the beginning of the season, this seems like the type of game Pete would find a way to loose. But it seems like Chip is going to take a while to get his reads down in West Hollywood, so it feels like this game is a gimme now.
OREGON – 32 blue chips signed between 2014- 17. In spite of how much crap we give our feather friends since 70-21, there’s still a ton of talent on this roster. We should be very concerned about this game based on the talent level of Oregon and it being in Eugene. It’s tied with Stanford for the hardest game left on the schedule IMHO. Also Oregon has a bye the week prior so competitive advantage them.
COLORADO – 5 blue chips between 2014- 17 and a home game. A Pete UW team should handle this type of game easy.
CAL – 8 blue chips from 2014- 17. Again, despite being on the road, this is the type of game Pete’s team wins even if it’s close in the 1st half.
STANFORD – 34 blue chips. Roughly equal talent level and this game is for all the marbles in the North. But we should be up for this game in a big way and I think we handle Stanford at home.
OREGON ST – 5 blue chips. Easy win.
WSU – 8 blue chips. Jimmy No Balls owns the Kewg.
Conclusion: I don’t think we run the table in the Pac, but an 8-1 in conference season is still a reasonable expectation in spite of Browning and the OL.
Comments
Agree with anyone who thinks Haener should be getting snaps right now. If I were coaching UW, I'd have a 2QB system in place, which is the ultimate way to bench a fledgling starter long enough to put games out of reach, without him "losing his job" or creating a QB controversy.
...before I even form words to say "no."
Outpaced us in talent previously but undercoached which explains a lot of the oscillation in head to head matchups. Even if Herm is the real deal it will take a while for it all to come together. Glad we have them at home though. I think we win but I think it's a closer game than the spread is indicating bc of exactly as you are saying there's a lot of talent parity.
BYE – BYE still sucks and we aren’t losing to them at home.
The Big Ten other than Ohio st looks like shit. Cal beat BYE. I might be more worried if this was in their house and their program was super hyped up after a big road upset.
UCLA – They signed 49 four/five star kids between 2014- 17 and the game is in Pasadena. On paper and at the beginning of the season, this seems like the type of game Pete would find a way to loose. But it seems like Chip is going to take a while to get his reads down in West Hollywood, so it feels like this game is a gimme now.
Chip isn't putting this team together by early October if ever. We should roll. Only wild card I would foresee is if it ends up being 100 degrees+. The Rose bowl sucks major balls if it's that hot. For our Dwags and for Race's health I pray it ain't that hot. Could end up being a hot slugfest which would set us up poorly for the next week...
OREGON – 32 blue chips signed between 2014- 17. In spite of how much crap we give our feather friends since 70-21, there’s still a ton of talent on this roster. We should be very concerned about this game based on the talent level of Oregon and it being in Eugene. It’s tied with Stanford for the hardest game left on the schedule IMHO. Also Oregon has a bye the week prior so competitive advantage them.
They have plenty of "talent" but no player development and mostly poor coaching. Herbert & the bye/home are literally the only reasons they have a shot. I expect them to get exposed as PAC 12 play starts.
COLORADO – 5 blue chips between 2014- 17 and a home game. A Pete UW team should handle this type of game easy.
Yeap
CAL – 8 blue chips from 2014- 17. Again, despite being on the road, this is the type of game Pete’s team wins even if it’s close in the 1st half.
Yeap
STANFORD – 34 blue chips. Roughly equal talent level and this game is for all the marbles in the North. But we should be up for this game in a big way and I think we handle Stanford at home.
Having CB's that can't just get out jumped by their receivers should alleviate our defensive woes against them from last year. Still concerned about our LB's allowing a huge game for Love.
OREGON ST – 5 blue chips. Easy win.
WSU – 8 blue chips. Jimmy No Balls owns the Kewg.
Yeap
Yeap
I see 1.5 moderate possibility losses left on the schedule. I don't care that Jake looked like shit, we expected that, putting away Utah on the road was a big first step in securing the North and we didn't step on our own dick.
I'd be curious to see what the talent matchups look like for some of the other Top 5-15 teams out there.
Strictly a junk zone defender.