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Gerald Alexander
Tequilla
Member Posts: 19,982
I don't feel like finding the thread where this was brought up, but consensus would be that if/when Lake eventually leaves UW that Alexander will be his replacement. The question/comment was brought up questioning Alexander's coaching chops.
Cal's passing game made some fairly material improvements in 2017 with Alexander (stats Pac 12 games only):
Yards per Pass Attempt
2017: 7.77 (10th in conference)
2016: 7.76 (7th in conference)
Yards per Pass Completion
2017: 11.39 (4th in conference)
2016: 12.75 (10th in conference)
Completion %
2017: 68.2% (12th in conference)
2016: 60.9% (8th in conference)
Turnovers
2017: 15 (5th in conference)
2016: 11 (10th in conference)
Teq Analysis
If you view pass defense based on yards per attempt and completion %, you would argue that Alexander was at best break even and perhaps worse than what Cal had in 2016. The key here though is looking at the yards per completion. Shaving almost a yard and a half off per completion tells you that they did a far better job of keeping the game in front of them willing to give up short completions. With the increase in turnovers that also argues for the defense being far more structured and able to take advantage of teams when they push the ball down the field.
Moreover, when you compare to how UW plays defense, UW isn't particularly concerned about the opposition's completion percentage as many throws are underneath and swing routes to RBs before rallying up to make tackles. Watching Cal this year, that's very similar to what I saw in how they game planned. That's evident in the fact that their points per game against dropped by almost 2 TDs from 43.6 per game in 2016 to 30.6 in 2017.
Cal's passing game made some fairly material improvements in 2017 with Alexander (stats Pac 12 games only):
Yards per Pass Attempt
2017: 7.77 (10th in conference)
2016: 7.76 (7th in conference)
Yards per Pass Completion
2017: 11.39 (4th in conference)
2016: 12.75 (10th in conference)
Completion %
2017: 68.2% (12th in conference)
2016: 60.9% (8th in conference)
Turnovers
2017: 15 (5th in conference)
2016: 11 (10th in conference)
Teq Analysis
If you view pass defense based on yards per attempt and completion %, you would argue that Alexander was at best break even and perhaps worse than what Cal had in 2016. The key here though is looking at the yards per completion. Shaving almost a yard and a half off per completion tells you that they did a far better job of keeping the game in front of them willing to give up short completions. With the increase in turnovers that also argues for the defense being far more structured and able to take advantage of teams when they push the ball down the field.
Moreover, when you compare to how UW plays defense, UW isn't particularly concerned about the opposition's completion percentage as many throws are underneath and swing routes to RBs before rallying up to make tackles. Watching Cal this year, that's very similar to what I saw in how they game planned. That's evident in the fact that their points per game against dropped by almost 2 TDs from 43.6 per game in 2016 to 30.6 in 2017.
Comments
Cal's improvement as a defense came entirely in run defense. In 2016 they were the WORST in the nation at 6.2 yards per rush allowed. They brought that all the way down to 4.2 in 2017.
Maybe they left their DBs in single coverage more often in order to take away the run and Alexander's unit did well to maintain the same ypa allowed, I don't know.
But on the surface the stats don't show any real improvement at all for Cal's secondary this past season.
This analysis isn't impressive at all.
There could be good reasons - tons of DB's on islands like Fremont hypothesized, or mass graduations last year that left them really young - and maybe there's better evidence from previous stops. But this does nothing to convince me he's a viable replacement.
If Lake leaves I hope we do better.
This shit doesn't mean anything. The guys is a boss coach. If you watched the games from this year to last (which I did), then you would understand.
If you think receiving stats tell you the whole story about how good DBs are playing you are crazy.
Alexander is really good. Stats are for losers.
Think of this another way, Cal's pass defense numbers didn't improve from 2016 to 2017 and they didn't have John Ross to rape them in 2017.
Might well be explainable, but that's scary chit.
One would expect teams who blitz a lot to give up a lower percentage of completions (throwaways, QB's hit when they throw, rushed passes), but give up more yards per completion when they hit the passes.
This is the opposite of what we see from 2016 - 2017.
Doesn't mean it's not possible, but color me highly skeptical that you have any actual idea how often Cal blitzed in either 2016 or 2017.
I think your hypothetis is right. That means it's unlikely they blitzed a ton though.