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Season Ending Offensive Review - 2017 vs 2016 ...
Tequilla
Member Posts: 19,825
All stats are for P12 Conference only games ... the difference between having John Ross on the team versus not having John Ross is pretty telling
Yards per Rush Attempt
2017: 5.31 yards per attempt, 5th in conference (Arizona 1st at 6.94)
2016: 5.40 yards per attempt, 4th in conference (USC 1st at 5.66)
On the surface, the yards per rushing attempt don't look statistically different YoY. On one hand, that makes sense as the only material change in the offensive line was replacing Jake Eldrenkamp (a not insignificant loss). On the other, watching the games you could definitely see more of a challenge in the run game running against a lot more 8 man boxes and safeties squeezing towards the LOS. Not surprisingly, the games where we struggled to run the ball (ASU = 2.9 ypc, Stanford = 4.1 ypc, and Utah = 3.8 ypc) were the games where we found ourselves in big trouble. Expecting that you're going to run the ball at a high level each week is a little unrealistic. The correlation though with the shortcomings in the passing game though requires the 2017 team to run the ball well to be successful.
Yards per Passing Attempt and Completion
2017: 7.54 yards per attempt (5th in conference, USC 1st at 8.47) and 11.34 yards per completion (9th in conference, USC 1st at 13.47)
2016: 8.59 yards per attempt (1st in conference, USC 2nd at 8.40) and 14.42 yards per completion (1st in conference, Arizona 2nd at 13.83)
If you need further proof of how important John Ross was last year, here's your proof. A full yard drop in yards per passing attempt is one thing (and that's with the team's completion % increasing from 59.6% in 2016 to 66.5% in 2017 ... one would expect higher yards per attempt all things being equal) ... but to drop by over 3 yards in yards per completion just shows that there wasn't any explosion to the offense. It honestly makes evaluating Browning's year so difficult. Increasing his completion percentage is a positive. Such a drop in yards per attempt/completion suggests more safe passes that aren't stretching the field. Not stretching the field also gives rise to the idea that a lot of the WRs on the roster were JAGs (particularly after Chico and to a lesser extent Pounds/Bryant got hurt). This is an area where going into 2018 IF we can get growth from the 2017 class (Jones, Bynum, and Cook) combined with instant contributions from the 2018 class (Osborne and Spiker), there's a lot of room for improvement here.
Yards per Offensive Play
2017: 6.19 yards per play (4th in conference, Arizona 1st at 7.28)
2016: 6.77 yards per play (2nd in conference, USC 1st at 6.92)
More beating of a dead horse here regarding how important Ross was and how the passing game went from explosive to more pedestrian. If you want a silver lining to the above, it's that our run/pass ratio was 60/40 in 2017 compared to 57/43 in 2016. Given the relative strengths of the team, directionally it does make sense that the offense skewed towards running the ball more.
Points per Game and Points per 100 Yards of Total Offense
2017: 33.6 points per game and 8.28 points per 100 yards (3rd and 1st in the conference respectively, Arizona 1st in points per game at 40.1 points per game and 2nd with 8.08 points per 100 yards)
2016: 39.7 points per game (2nd in conference, Wazzu 1st at 39.8 points per game) and 8.52 points per 100 yards (1st in conference, ASU 2nd at 8.21 points per 100 yards)
Given the shortcomings in the passing game, being 6 points worse per game in 2017 makes sense ... although a little surprising to see that from an efficiency standpoint, we were very efficient. Obviously short fields and/or scores caused by special teams and the defense could influence these numbers. Yet, when considering that the balance of Pettis's PR work was done in the preseason and the defense didn't create as many turnovers in 2017 as in 2016, you're looking a lot more at offensive efficiency. One BIG difference in 2017 versus 2016 was the efficiency in the kicking game. I'd argue that that had as much of an influence on the decline in points per game this year versus last year as any. The obvious outlier in 2017 was the ASU game. While the numbers from the Stanford game look good on the surface, this is an area where the stats and the film tell a different story. The offense moved the ball reasonably well the 1st 20 minutes of the game and the last 10 minutes of the game. The middle 30 minutes? Basically nothing as the defense got left on the field over and over and over.
Turnovers
2017: 7 (tied for 1st in the conference with Stanford) and a turnover every 84 offensive plays (1st in the conference, Stanford 2nd in the conference with a turnover every 78 plays)
2016: 12 (2nd in the conference, Cal led the conference with 11) and a turnover every 63 offensive plays (2nd in the conference, Cal led with a turnover every 70 plays)
If there's a real redeeming quality for where Browning grew in 2017, getting through a 9 game conference season as a team at under a turnover per game is really good. It's indicative of what we've largely come to expect under a Chris Petersen team in that there is an expectation that by and large the team won't beat themselves. And the surest way to beat yourself is to turn the ball over. Looking through the offensive stats as a whole for the conference, you see Stanford showing up high in all the categories that you'd expect them to do so in. But their improved QB play the 2nd half of the year and being #1 in the conference in turnover margin allowed them to maximize what their capabilities were in the conference whereas we pretty much achieved the floor of what we could when you factor in all of the stats + injuries.
TL, DR Summary
The 2017 UW Offense took a step back versus the 2016 version and the lack of explosiveness in the passing game really reduced UW's margin of error. The run game continued to be strong in 2017 and the overall offensive efficiency and ability to protect the ball also very strong. For the offense to take the next step forward, moving past JAGs at the WR position that were largely in place in 2017 and getting back to having multiple explosive playmakers like what was in place in the 2016 season provides a large opportunity for growth in 2018.
Yards per Rush Attempt
2017: 5.31 yards per attempt, 5th in conference (Arizona 1st at 6.94)
2016: 5.40 yards per attempt, 4th in conference (USC 1st at 5.66)
On the surface, the yards per rushing attempt don't look statistically different YoY. On one hand, that makes sense as the only material change in the offensive line was replacing Jake Eldrenkamp (a not insignificant loss). On the other, watching the games you could definitely see more of a challenge in the run game running against a lot more 8 man boxes and safeties squeezing towards the LOS. Not surprisingly, the games where we struggled to run the ball (ASU = 2.9 ypc, Stanford = 4.1 ypc, and Utah = 3.8 ypc) were the games where we found ourselves in big trouble. Expecting that you're going to run the ball at a high level each week is a little unrealistic. The correlation though with the shortcomings in the passing game though requires the 2017 team to run the ball well to be successful.
Yards per Passing Attempt and Completion
2017: 7.54 yards per attempt (5th in conference, USC 1st at 8.47) and 11.34 yards per completion (9th in conference, USC 1st at 13.47)
2016: 8.59 yards per attempt (1st in conference, USC 2nd at 8.40) and 14.42 yards per completion (1st in conference, Arizona 2nd at 13.83)
If you need further proof of how important John Ross was last year, here's your proof. A full yard drop in yards per passing attempt is one thing (and that's with the team's completion % increasing from 59.6% in 2016 to 66.5% in 2017 ... one would expect higher yards per attempt all things being equal) ... but to drop by over 3 yards in yards per completion just shows that there wasn't any explosion to the offense. It honestly makes evaluating Browning's year so difficult. Increasing his completion percentage is a positive. Such a drop in yards per attempt/completion suggests more safe passes that aren't stretching the field. Not stretching the field also gives rise to the idea that a lot of the WRs on the roster were JAGs (particularly after Chico and to a lesser extent Pounds/Bryant got hurt). This is an area where going into 2018 IF we can get growth from the 2017 class (Jones, Bynum, and Cook) combined with instant contributions from the 2018 class (Osborne and Spiker), there's a lot of room for improvement here.
Yards per Offensive Play
2017: 6.19 yards per play (4th in conference, Arizona 1st at 7.28)
2016: 6.77 yards per play (2nd in conference, USC 1st at 6.92)
More beating of a dead horse here regarding how important Ross was and how the passing game went from explosive to more pedestrian. If you want a silver lining to the above, it's that our run/pass ratio was 60/40 in 2017 compared to 57/43 in 2016. Given the relative strengths of the team, directionally it does make sense that the offense skewed towards running the ball more.
Points per Game and Points per 100 Yards of Total Offense
2017: 33.6 points per game and 8.28 points per 100 yards (3rd and 1st in the conference respectively, Arizona 1st in points per game at 40.1 points per game and 2nd with 8.08 points per 100 yards)
2016: 39.7 points per game (2nd in conference, Wazzu 1st at 39.8 points per game) and 8.52 points per 100 yards (1st in conference, ASU 2nd at 8.21 points per 100 yards)
Given the shortcomings in the passing game, being 6 points worse per game in 2017 makes sense ... although a little surprising to see that from an efficiency standpoint, we were very efficient. Obviously short fields and/or scores caused by special teams and the defense could influence these numbers. Yet, when considering that the balance of Pettis's PR work was done in the preseason and the defense didn't create as many turnovers in 2017 as in 2016, you're looking a lot more at offensive efficiency. One BIG difference in 2017 versus 2016 was the efficiency in the kicking game. I'd argue that that had as much of an influence on the decline in points per game this year versus last year as any. The obvious outlier in 2017 was the ASU game. While the numbers from the Stanford game look good on the surface, this is an area where the stats and the film tell a different story. The offense moved the ball reasonably well the 1st 20 minutes of the game and the last 10 minutes of the game. The middle 30 minutes? Basically nothing as the defense got left on the field over and over and over.
Turnovers
2017: 7 (tied for 1st in the conference with Stanford) and a turnover every 84 offensive plays (1st in the conference, Stanford 2nd in the conference with a turnover every 78 plays)
2016: 12 (2nd in the conference, Cal led the conference with 11) and a turnover every 63 offensive plays (2nd in the conference, Cal led with a turnover every 70 plays)
If there's a real redeeming quality for where Browning grew in 2017, getting through a 9 game conference season as a team at under a turnover per game is really good. It's indicative of what we've largely come to expect under a Chris Petersen team in that there is an expectation that by and large the team won't beat themselves. And the surest way to beat yourself is to turn the ball over. Looking through the offensive stats as a whole for the conference, you see Stanford showing up high in all the categories that you'd expect them to do so in. But their improved QB play the 2nd half of the year and being #1 in the conference in turnover margin allowed them to maximize what their capabilities were in the conference whereas we pretty much achieved the floor of what we could when you factor in all of the stats + injuries.
TL, DR Summary
The 2017 UW Offense took a step back versus the 2016 version and the lack of explosiveness in the passing game really reduced UW's margin of error. The run game continued to be strong in 2017 and the overall offensive efficiency and ability to protect the ball also very strong. For the offense to take the next step forward, moving past JAGs at the WR position that were largely in place in 2017 and getting back to having multiple explosive playmakers like what was in place in the 2016 season provides a large opportunity for growth in 2018.
Comments
2017 on the farm as the D couldn't get off the field and the O couldn't stay on
The rest is pretty much a wash other than the failed attempt to keep Graham at ASU
Looks good against the shit teams, struggles against a physical one
Browning = pussy
You're welcome