Stupid early guess at the CFP teams and who else fills the NY6 bowels

TierbsHsotBoobs

CFP:
SEC champ
ACC champ
Two of these four teams: Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio State

NY6 locks:

ACC - Miami and Clemson
SEC - Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia
B1G - Wisconsin and either Ohio State or Penn State
XII - Oklahoma and TCU
Group of 5 - Someone (probably UCF)
Pac-12 - Stanford or USC



I see 11 locks and only 1 free spot available. The only viable way for Washington to make the NY6 is for Wisconsin to beat Ohio State so bad that the Buckeyes fall below the Huskies in the final CFP rankings. It's likely that the SEC and B1G will get three teams in the NY6 while the Pac-12 will only get one.


TL, DR: UW headed to the Alamo or Holiday unless shit gets really weird.

whlinder

Why do you have Oklahoma And TCU?

One of them has to lose. And if it’s TCU that’s 3 losses. We’d have a chance to pass them in that case. They just played Baylor so their SOS compared to last week will take a hit.

That’s the group and it’s pretty much set, and it’s totally a Stanford OR USC situation. The final bid is Oklahoma AND TCU if TCU wins. If TCU loses it opens up the possibility of them falling out. Same with tOSU if they lose badly.

Hopefully Fresno makes it to the top 25 and Cuog stays there. If that happened we’d actually compare favorably to Penn State whose best win is Northwestern.

UWhuskytskeet

Do we? play UCF if we make a NY6?

uzi

If Furd beats USC, combined with their win today over ND, then our loss to them doesn't look as bad.

But that loss to ASU still sucks shit.

Bread

UWhuskytskeet said:

Do we? play UCF if we make a NY6?

I'm hoping for a Wisconsin loss so we can play them

And don't count out memphis, or the Fresno rematch.

TierbsHsotBoobs

whlinder said:

Why do you have Oklahoma And TCU?

One of them has to lose. And if it’s TCU that’s 3 losses. We’d have a chance to pass them in that case. They just played Baylor so their SOS compared to last week will take a hit.

That’s the group and it’s pretty much set, and it’s totally a Stanford OR USC situation. The final bid is Oklahoma AND TCU if TCU wins. If TCU loses it opens up the possibility of them falling out. Same with tOSU if they lose badly.

Hopefully Fresno makes it to the top 25 and Cuog stays there. If that happened we’d actually compare favorably to Penn State whose best win is Northwestern.

I stupidly assumed that conferences were guaranteed a second bid if their champion went to the playoff. That doesn't happen in the Rose/Sugar CFP semifinal years, because this system is dumb sometimes.

Scratch TCU from the locks above, but Penn State is probably a lock now. They were at #10 before this week while UW was at #17. I don't think this week's results will change enough to get Washington ahead of Penn State. I guess the best hope is that Oklahoma blows the fuck out of TCU. If that happens...Washington probably gets Penn State in the Cotton Bowl.

Maybe this helps?

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/bowl-projections-alabama-not-out-of-the-college-football-playoff-picture-just-yet/

Tequilla

TCU isn’t in a New Year’s 6 Bowl if they lose to Oklahoma ... there’s a chance UW can sneak into the Cotton

TierbsHsotBoobs

Tequilla said:

TCU isn’t in a New Year’s 6 Bowl if they lose to Oklahoma ... there’s a chance UW can sneak into the Cotton

53 seconds. And I think it would depend on how they lose.

Bread

TierbsHsotBoobs said:

whlinder said:

Why do you have Oklahoma And TCU?

One of them has to lose. And if it’s TCU that’s 3 losses. We’d have a chance to pass them in that case. They just played Baylor so their SOS compared to last week will take a hit.

That’s the group and it’s pretty much set, and it’s totally a Stanford OR USC situation. The final bid is Oklahoma AND TCU if TCU wins. If TCU loses it opens up the possibility of them falling out. Same with tOSU if they lose badly.

Hopefully Fresno makes it to the top 25 and Cuog stays there. If that happened we’d actually compare favorably to Penn State whose best win is Northwestern.

I stupidly assumed that conferences were guaranteed a second bid if their champion went to the playoff. That doesn't happen in the Rose/Sugar CFP semifinal years, because this system is dumb sometimes.

Scratch TCU from the locks above, but Penn State is probably a lock now. They were at #10 before this week while UW was at #17. I don't think this week's results will change enough to get Washington ahead of Penn State. I guess the best hope is that Oklahoma blows the fuck out of TCU. If that happens...Washington probably gets Penn State in the Cotton Bowl.

Maybe this helps?

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/bowl-projections-alabama-not-out-of-the-college-football-playoff-picture-just-yet/

they firgot to edit this after notre damr lost. no way they get into new years 6

TierbsHsotBoobs

Bread said:

TierbsHsotBoobs said:

whlinder said:

Why do you have Oklahoma And TCU?

One of them has to lose. And if it’s TCU that’s 3 losses. We’d have a chance to pass them in that case. They just played Baylor so their SOS compared to last week will take a hit.

That’s the group and it’s pretty much set, and it’s totally a Stanford OR USC situation. The final bid is Oklahoma AND TCU if TCU wins. If TCU loses it opens up the possibility of them falling out. Same with tOSU if they lose badly.

Hopefully Fresno makes it to the top 25 and Cuog stays there. If that happened we’d actually compare favorably to Penn State whose best win is Northwestern.

I stupidly assumed that conferences were guaranteed a second bid if their champion went to the playoff. That doesn't happen in the Rose/Sugar CFP semifinal years, because this system is dumb sometimes.

Scratch TCU from the locks above, but Penn State is probably a lock now. They were at #10 before this week while UW was at #17. I don't think this week's results will change enough to get Washington ahead of Penn State. I guess the best hope is that Oklahoma blows the fuck out of TCU. If that happens...Washington probably gets Penn State in the Cotton Bowl.

Maybe this helps?

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/bowl-projections-alabama-not-out-of-the-college-football-playoff-picture-just-yet/

they firgot to edit this after notre damr lost. no way they get into new years 6

Agree. TCU is the logical replacement for now.

whlinder

Also, this would be a bit shady, but ESPN still runs this shit, right?

Auburn and us are opening the season next year.

That’s a whole lotta offseason hype and storylines and manufactured debate for ESPN if it is NY6 vs playoff/NY6 from year before. (And playoff vs NY6 from 2016).

LebamDawg

Per ESPN they want Clemson, Alabama, Ohio St, and Oklahoma, Everyone else can GTFO

The selection committee is bought and paid for

TierbsHsotBoobs

whlinder said:

Also, this would be a bit shady, but ESPN still runs this shit, right?

Auburn and us are opening the season next year.

That’s a whole lotta offseason hype and storylines and manufactured debate for ESPN if it is NY6 vs playoff/NY6 from year before. (And playoff vs NY6 from 2016).

Auburn/Georgia loser v UCF in the Peach Bowl is a lock IMO.

whlinder

In the scenario with a TCU loss and UW sneaking in as the last bid, wonder if the committee would ever consider UW vs USC in the Fiesta. Didnt play this year and won’t next year.

(Yes I am writing off Stanford. Short week vs a team on a bye. Good luck)

TierbsHsotBoobs

whlinder said:

In the scenario with a TCU loss and UW sneaking in as the last bid, wonder if the committee would ever consider UW vs USC in the Fiesta. Didnt play this year and won’t next year.

(Yes I am writing off Stanford. Short week vs a team on a bye. Good luck)

That scenario would be TV ratings death.

whlinder

TierbsHsotBoobs said:

whlinder said:

In the scenario with a TCU loss and UW sneaking in as the last bid, wonder if the committee would ever consider UW vs USC in the Fiesta. Didnt play this year and won’t next year.

(Yes I am writing off Stanford. Short week vs a team on a bye. Good luck)

That scenario would be TV ratings death.

Why do you hate 10:30pm EST kickoffs?

TierbsHsotBoobs

whlinder said:

TierbsHsotBoobs said:

whlinder said:

In the scenario with a TCU loss and UW sneaking in as the last bid, wonder if the committee would ever consider UW vs USC in the Fiesta. Didnt play this year and won’t next year.

(Yes I am writing off Stanford. Short week vs a team on a bye. Good luck)

That scenario would be TV ratings death.

Why do you hate 10:30pm EST kickoffs?

The Fiesta Bowl kicks off at 4 pm Eastern this year. It would be funny to have two Pac-12 teams play at a normal hour.

Tequilla

This is the kind of win that would move us up substantially in the rankings

TierbsHsotBoobs

Tequilla said:

This is the kind of win that would move us up substantially in the rankings

Beating a shit team at home shouldn't impress anyone.

oregonblitzkrieg

TierbsHsotBoobs said:

Tequilla said:

This is the kind of win that would move us up substantially in the rankings

I don't deal in hypotheticals.

Disagree.

Bread

whlinder said:

Also, this would be a bit shady, but ESPN still runs this shit, right?

Auburn and us are opening the season next year.

That’s a whole lotta offseason hype and storylines and manufactured debate for ESPN if it is NY6 vs playoff/NY6 from year before. (And playoff vs NY6 from 2016).

fair point. now I wonder if they go as far as matching us with them. wo7ld be easy clicks all of season. no way we ain't in the 12th spot.