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Reason for an Optimistic Miracle in Atlanta ...
Tequilla
Member Posts: 19,982
For those that hate TL, DR, this probably isn't for you. But there's some definite parallels here if you take a few moments going down memory lane here.
There are a few examples in the last 15 years where I can point to double digit underdogs winning in either the College Football Playoffs or National Championship. One such game was the 2003 Fiesta Bowl that pitted #1 undefeated Miami versus #2 undefeated Ohio State. Going into the game, Miami was a 11.5 point favorite in the game and with good reason ...
The 2001 Miami team is considered on the short list of the greatest teams of all time and had won the National Championship in dominating fashion over Nebraska in the 2002 Rose Bowl. While many left for the NFL after 2001, some came back and the team was loaded (particularly on defense). Offensively, they still had Ken Dorsey at QB with Willis McGahee in the backfield (he had a monster year with over 2,100 yards from scrimmage and 28 TDs), Andre Johnson at WR, and Kellen Winslow at TE. Defensively consisted of a who's who of guys that played in the NFL including William Joseph, Jerome McDougle, and a young Vince Wolfork on the DL; DJ Williams and Jonathan Vilma at LB; and Antrel Rolle and Sean Taylor in the secondary.
The stats backed up Miami's dominance (all stats for Power 5 games only):
Offensive Stats:
Yards per Carry: 4.67
Completion %: 55.6%
Yards per Attempt: 8.74
Yards per Completion: 15.72
Run/Pass Ratio: 52/48
Turnovers: 19
Defensive Stats:
Yards per Carry: 3.96
Completion %: 47.1%
Yards per Attempt: 4.71
Yards per Completion: 10.01
Run/Pass Ratio: 64/36
Turnovers: 21
Miami had a few close games on the season with a 1 point win against Florida State and a 7 point win over Pitt. However, the balance of their games were significant wins of 20+ points including road games against Florida and Tennessee. This was a dominating team that had won 34 games in a row heading into the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State with their last loss in 2000 at Husky Stadium.
In contrast, Ohio State was an up and coming program a bit with Jim Tressel in his 2nd year taking over at Ohio State and a defense led by 2nd year DC Mark Dantonio. When you go back and look at the depth chart, there was some talent on the roster but it was mostly young and rotational players as only 5 players were taken in the 2003 NFL Draft with safety Mike Doss taken the highest at the back end of the 2nd round. The offense could be considered pedestrian with Craig Krenzel at QB, a freshman RB in Maurice Clarett, and a WR group led by Michael Jenkins and two way WR/CB Chris Gamble. I was a team that was definitely greater than the sum of its parts. The Buckeyes started the season ranked #13 in the polls and made a steady climb throughout the year only getting into the 2nd spot by mid-November by knocking out a number of close wins (6 of their 13 games during the regular season being decided by 1 score). Going into the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio State had been outgained in their last 3 games and 4 of their 13 games on the season ... unbelievable really for a team that was undefeated.
Looking at Ohio State's stats, their dominance was not necessarily easy to see (all stats for Power 5 games only):
Offensive Stats:
Yards per Carry: 4.15
Completion %: 59.6%
Yards per Attempt: 8.24
Yards per Completion: 13.83
Run/Pass Ratio: 72/28
Turnovers: 11
Defensive Stats:
Yards per Carry: 2.45
Completion %: 57.6%
Yards per Attempt: 6.41
Yards per Completion: 11.14
Run/Pass Ratio: 45/55
Turnovers: 21
On paper, it's easy to see why Miami was a huge favorite in the game. Ohio State was a heavy run team with a relatively pedestrian running offense. With the talent on Miami's defense, the expectation that they'd be able to slow down Ohio State's running game and turn Krenzel into a position where he was throwing against one of the better secondaries in all college football left people wondering how they were going to score points. And while defensively one could see how Ohio State may be able to slow down Miami's running game, the somewhat vulnerable passing game for Ohio State could provide for an avenue from which Miami could attack at least enough to be able to get a victory.
And in the end, all of the above basically came true. Miami couldn't run but ended up completing 29 of 44 passes for over 300 yards while Ohio State was stalled not only in the run game (52 for 145) but Krenzel's inability in the passing game stalled them through much of the night (7 of 27 for 122 yards). Even in the return game Miami dominated with Andre Johnson getting a 39 yard kickoff return and Roscoe Parrish returning 2 punts for 58 yards. Obviously McGahee's injury in the 2nd half was a massive moment in the game ... but the reality is that the difference in the game was that Ohio State forced 5 turnovers and ended up +3 in turnover margin with 2 of those turnovers leading directly to red zone opportunities and Ohio State TDs.
As talked about during the podcast, one of Alabama's losses since 2011 was in the 2014 Sugar Bowl against Oklahoma ... Oklahoma was a 17.5 point underdog in that game. In that game, Alabama was a -4 in turnover margin. So there's your key.
There are a few examples in the last 15 years where I can point to double digit underdogs winning in either the College Football Playoffs or National Championship. One such game was the 2003 Fiesta Bowl that pitted #1 undefeated Miami versus #2 undefeated Ohio State. Going into the game, Miami was a 11.5 point favorite in the game and with good reason ...
The 2001 Miami team is considered on the short list of the greatest teams of all time and had won the National Championship in dominating fashion over Nebraska in the 2002 Rose Bowl. While many left for the NFL after 2001, some came back and the team was loaded (particularly on defense). Offensively, they still had Ken Dorsey at QB with Willis McGahee in the backfield (he had a monster year with over 2,100 yards from scrimmage and 28 TDs), Andre Johnson at WR, and Kellen Winslow at TE. Defensively consisted of a who's who of guys that played in the NFL including William Joseph, Jerome McDougle, and a young Vince Wolfork on the DL; DJ Williams and Jonathan Vilma at LB; and Antrel Rolle and Sean Taylor in the secondary.
The stats backed up Miami's dominance (all stats for Power 5 games only):
Offensive Stats:
Yards per Carry: 4.67
Completion %: 55.6%
Yards per Attempt: 8.74
Yards per Completion: 15.72
Run/Pass Ratio: 52/48
Turnovers: 19
Defensive Stats:
Yards per Carry: 3.96
Completion %: 47.1%
Yards per Attempt: 4.71
Yards per Completion: 10.01
Run/Pass Ratio: 64/36
Turnovers: 21
Miami had a few close games on the season with a 1 point win against Florida State and a 7 point win over Pitt. However, the balance of their games were significant wins of 20+ points including road games against Florida and Tennessee. This was a dominating team that had won 34 games in a row heading into the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State with their last loss in 2000 at Husky Stadium.
In contrast, Ohio State was an up and coming program a bit with Jim Tressel in his 2nd year taking over at Ohio State and a defense led by 2nd year DC Mark Dantonio. When you go back and look at the depth chart, there was some talent on the roster but it was mostly young and rotational players as only 5 players were taken in the 2003 NFL Draft with safety Mike Doss taken the highest at the back end of the 2nd round. The offense could be considered pedestrian with Craig Krenzel at QB, a freshman RB in Maurice Clarett, and a WR group led by Michael Jenkins and two way WR/CB Chris Gamble. I was a team that was definitely greater than the sum of its parts. The Buckeyes started the season ranked #13 in the polls and made a steady climb throughout the year only getting into the 2nd spot by mid-November by knocking out a number of close wins (6 of their 13 games during the regular season being decided by 1 score). Going into the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio State had been outgained in their last 3 games and 4 of their 13 games on the season ... unbelievable really for a team that was undefeated.
Looking at Ohio State's stats, their dominance was not necessarily easy to see (all stats for Power 5 games only):
Offensive Stats:
Yards per Carry: 4.15
Completion %: 59.6%
Yards per Attempt: 8.24
Yards per Completion: 13.83
Run/Pass Ratio: 72/28
Turnovers: 11
Defensive Stats:
Yards per Carry: 2.45
Completion %: 57.6%
Yards per Attempt: 6.41
Yards per Completion: 11.14
Run/Pass Ratio: 45/55
Turnovers: 21
On paper, it's easy to see why Miami was a huge favorite in the game. Ohio State was a heavy run team with a relatively pedestrian running offense. With the talent on Miami's defense, the expectation that they'd be able to slow down Ohio State's running game and turn Krenzel into a position where he was throwing against one of the better secondaries in all college football left people wondering how they were going to score points. And while defensively one could see how Ohio State may be able to slow down Miami's running game, the somewhat vulnerable passing game for Ohio State could provide for an avenue from which Miami could attack at least enough to be able to get a victory.
And in the end, all of the above basically came true. Miami couldn't run but ended up completing 29 of 44 passes for over 300 yards while Ohio State was stalled not only in the run game (52 for 145) but Krenzel's inability in the passing game stalled them through much of the night (7 of 27 for 122 yards). Even in the return game Miami dominated with Andre Johnson getting a 39 yard kickoff return and Roscoe Parrish returning 2 punts for 58 yards. Obviously McGahee's injury in the 2nd half was a massive moment in the game ... but the reality is that the difference in the game was that Ohio State forced 5 turnovers and ended up +3 in turnover margin with 2 of those turnovers leading directly to red zone opportunities and Ohio State TDs.
As talked about during the podcast, one of Alabama's losses since 2011 was in the 2014 Sugar Bowl against Oklahoma ... Oklahoma was a 17.5 point underdog in that game. In that game, Alabama was a -4 in turnover margin. So there's your key.
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Comments
The turnover margin is the key to the game ... plus the points off those turnovers. Miami was over +100 in yardage differential in the game ... didn't matter with the short fields they gave up. They were yardage monsters all year (same as Bama this year). They won the national title the year prior (same as Bama last year). Both on huge winning streaks.
I think the thing that really stood out to me in looking in more detail at the game was how "young" Ohio State was ... going into the game I think you could look at Ohio State as a team that probably had a greater upside in the upcoming years ... same as Washington.
Honestly, IF we can hold our own on the OL ... I really like our chances.
Our? only chance is to get points off turnovers.
With that said, Alabama's pass rush makes Utah's look like Oregon's.
I was encouraged hearing Babushka talk today about needing to find ways to get positive gains on 1st and 2nd down to set up 3rd and short opportunities ... that's the Stanford game plan in a nutshell.
I also love hearing everything coming out of the Bama camp being talk about our trick plays ... they have this overwhelming confidence that the ONLY way that they can lose is to be beat on trick plays ... if they are looking for them they will be a half step slow on recognizing regular plays ... there's a definite opportunity to fuck with their mind a bit by showing them things with how they read their keys that aren't there. Get them on their heels ... we'll win.
He (Tedford) did it in the Stanford game ...
We basically rode the run game against Colorado ...
Browning pressed combined with Babushka calling a bad game against USC ...
IF we win this game, the loss to USC will end up being the best thing that happened to us this year.
I said turnovers mattered ... we were -3 in margin and -10 on the scoreboard (lost by 17) ...
I said that there were things that we could do offensively with motion and formations ... led to our first TD and we were moving the ball well leading up to the Ross fumble ... I don't think we did as much as we could and then when we got behind and started to panic ...
Anybody on this board would have taken the defense giving up 14 points (non-turnover variety) today ...
So fuck off in suggesting that I was wrong or whatever ... as the title implied it was an "optimistic miracle" that we'd win anyway ...