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We are down to 32% now

YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 33,938
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-a-weekend-of-upsets-changed-the-college-football-playoff/
The season is definitely not over, but our statistical odds to make the CFP per Nate Silver's super computer have decreased from 47% pre USC to 32% post said game. In my view, Nate's stock is not diminished post Trump win. He gave him a 29% chance as of Monday, 11/7 and indicated an electoral college win was well within the polling margin for error.

Yes, it's FS that I even looked this up - just win El Norte and worry about the other crap when we get there.
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    GrundleStiltzkinGrundleStiltzkin Member Posts: 61,481
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    image
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    BrickSquadBrickSquad Member Posts: 1,658
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    edited November 2016
    I'm surprised it's still that high. I'm not sure they control their own destiny even if they do win out.

    I hope I'm wrong and UW squeaks in
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    BrickSquadBrickSquad Member Posts: 1,658
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    RaceBannon said:

    That's bullshit along with most of the crap that comes out of there

    I had Trump winning in June of 2015. Fuck Silver.

    What were his odds on my Cavs down 3-1?

    We win we are in and we have 2 cupcakes and a likely rematch with Utah to do so

    81% chance

    Pass the blunt
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    dncdnc Member Posts: 56,614
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    RaceBannon said:

    That's bullshit along with most of the crap that comes out of there

    I had Trump winning in June of 2015. Fuck Silver.

    What were his odds on my Cavs down 3-1?

    We win we are in and we have 2 cupcakes and a likely rematch with Utah to do so

    81% chance

    Pretty sure the disagreement is on UW's odds of winning out. I doubt Silver (and it's probably not even him, just his team) is dumb enough to project us out of the tourney in that scenario.

    That Wazzu game is going to be TUFF though.
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    doogvilledoogville Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 1,183
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    Also we are all Houston cougars fans now
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    PineapplePiratePineapplePirate Member Posts: 4,012
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    Fivethirtyeight is a damn joke. I sometimes laugh at their predictions before I even read them. Now I just ignore everything they say.
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    rodmansragerodmansrage Member Posts: 6,022
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    YellowSnow said:

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-a-weekend-of-upsets-changed-the-college-football-playoff/
    The season is definitely not over, but our statistical odds to make the CFP per Nate Silver's super computer have decreased from 47% pre USC to 32% post said game. In my view, Nate's stock is not diminished post Trump win. He gave him a 29% chance as of Monday, 11/7 and indicated an electoral college win was well within the polling margin for error.

    Yes, it's FS that I even looked this up - just win El Norte and worry about the other crap when we get there.

    silver had the election nailed so im sure he's right on this one.
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    YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 33,938
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    RaceBannon said:

    That's bullshit along with most of the crap that comes out of there

    I had Trump winning in June of 2015. Fuck Silver.

    What were his odds on my Cavs down 3-1?

    We win we are in and we have 2 cupcakes and a likely rematch with Utah to do so

    81% chance

    Race, you had Trump in June 2015? I hope you wagered some serious coin on this. That would buy a hell of a lot of fresh bowls and cigars.
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    RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 101,382
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    YellowSnow said:

    RaceBannon said:

    That's bullshit along with most of the crap that comes out of there

    I had Trump winning in June of 2015. Fuck Silver.

    What were his odds on my Cavs down 3-1?

    We win we are in and we have 2 cupcakes and a likely rematch with Utah to do so

    81% chance

    Race, you had Trump in June 2015? I hope you wagered some serious coin on this. That would buy a hell of a lot of fresh bowls and cigars.
    The evidence is on the Tug
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    YellowSnowYellowSnow Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 33,938
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    rodmansrage said:

    YellowSnow said:

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-a-weekend-of-upsets-changed-the-college-football-playoff/
    The season is definitely not over, but our statistical odds to make the CFP per Nate Silver's super computer have decreased from 47% pre USC to 32% post said game. In my view, Nate's stock is not diminished post Trump win. He gave him a 29% chance as of Monday, 11/7 and indicated an electoral college win was well within the polling margin for error.

    Yes, it's FS that I even looked this up - just win El Norte and worry about the other crap when we get there.

    silver had the election nailed so im sure he's right on this one.
    I hardly think he had it "nailed" as was the case in 2008 and 12, but he gave him a lot better chance at victory than most predictors.
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    PostGameOrangeSlicesPostGameOrangeSlices Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 24,566
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    Founders Club
    Louisville sucks. Clemson sucks. Michigan sucks
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    doogiedoogie Member Posts: 15,072
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    This is the guy who gave a 67% chance to Hillary day before the election, right?
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    doogiedoogie Member Posts: 15,072
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    BuffBuffPass said:

    doogie said:

    This is the guy who gave a 67% chance to Hillary day before the election, right?

    Yeah. What's the problem?

    Even Trump's camp didn't think they were favorites to win. 538 gave Trump a better chance of winning than pretty much every polls-based website out there and also better than the betting market. People who think Trump's win is a reason to ignore 538 are clueless.
    Trump knew he was going to win.
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    RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 101,382
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    BuffBuffPass said:

    doogie said:

    This is the guy who gave a 67% chance to Hillary day before the election, right?

    Yeah. What's the problem?

    Even Trump's camp didn't think they were favorites to win. 538 gave Trump a better chance of winning than pretty much every polls-based website out there and also better than the betting market. People who think Trump's win is a reason to ignore 538 are clueless.
    I'm not sure that giving the guy who won an electoral landslide 33% is reason to celebrate

    As someone else pointed out Silver never changed his models to reflect the Trump voters and the lack of carry over of Obama voters for Hillary. He missed on Trump on the primaries too

    It doesn't make him a bad person or bad at what he does but if we wanted stupid percentage metric bullshit we'd move to Friday Harbor with Chest

    He was as bad as everyone else
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    jecorneljecornel Member Posts: 9,592
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    Silver should have found a new career last Wednesday morning. Lost all credibility. LOSER.
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    AIRWOLFAIRWOLF Member Posts: 1,840
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    jecornel said:

    Silver should have found a new career last Wednesday morning. Lost all credibility. LOSER.

    You probably don't have a very good grasp of probability.
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    phineasphineas Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 4,724
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    RaceBannon said:

    That's bullshit along with most of the crap that comes out of there

    I had Trump winning in June of 2015. Fuck Silver.

    What were his odds on my Cavs down 3-1?

    We win we are in and we have 2 cupcakes and a likely rematch with Utah to do so

    81% chance

    BLACK POWER
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    BuffBuffPassBuffBuffPass Member Posts: 322
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    RaceBannon said:

    BuffBuffPass said:

    doogie said:

    This is the guy who gave a 67% chance to Hillary day before the election, right?

    Yeah. What's the problem?

    Even Trump's camp didn't think they were favorites to win. 538 gave Trump a better chance of winning than pretty much every polls-based website out there and also better than the betting market. People who think Trump's win is a reason to ignore 538 are clueless.
    I'm not sure that giving the guy who won an electoral landslide 33% is reason to celebrate

    As someone else pointed out Silver never changed his models to reflect the Trump voters and the lack of carry over of Obama voters for Hillary. He missed on Trump on the primaries too

    It doesn't make him a bad person or bad at what he does but if we wanted stupid percentage metric bullshit we'd move to Friday Harbor with Chest

    He was as bad as everyone else
    You have a really poor grasp on how probabilities work, particularly when it comes to events that have a high degree of correlation, i.e. non-independent events.

    And he did change his model to reflect the uncertainty in this election, which is why his model gave Trump a better chance of winning than virtually every poll-based model out there.

    Many of the arguments used about turnout were used back in 2008 and 2012 and were categorically wrong back then. There is such a thing as polling error and polls have become less reliable in recent years by the look of things (Brexit, Israeli election, British election, etc.) which, again, is why he gave Trump a better chance of winning than other models out there.

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