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The Aftermath of Stony Brook
FreeChavez
Member Posts: 3,223
The positives of the preseason went down in epic flames while losing to a powerhouse such as Stony Brook. What shouldn't be lost in the whole big picture is that we still won the biggest games which matter during the preseason, and in basketball there is a little leeway in blowing a game here or there. The bad is that we now have to actually play true road games where the officials and arena's are not as kind as HecEd.
What is concerning is that the Stony Brook game reminds us how close a margin there is between winning and losing for this team. I hate to pull in the USC'ism for this year, but this team could easily have 4+ losses already, and we're lucky to be 11-1 in many regards. Tulane, Oky, EWU, UTEP, Pacific were all games which easily could have gone the other way. Fortunately, this is the first which really went the other direction.
Now that the preseason has ended, I'll eat the crow and say this team won a whole lot more than I ever would have assumed. That being said, I still find it to be a pretty big mirage as most of the teams on the schedule we should beat. That's why they are scheduled. If you're going through preseason with more than 2-3 losses you're team is awful(see WSU). This team relies heavily upon shutting other teams down, and getting pretty lucky down the stretch which isn't attainable. There was a stat in the oky game where UW shoots over 80% from the line with 5 minutes or less to play. There is no way we'll continue above 80% through the pac-12.
A few stats which lead me to believe we're in big trouble going forward against better talent and actually playing road games.
* Three of our four top FT attempts are shooting 44%, 55%, and 69%. We are rarely blowing teams out, which means FT's will decide many games in Pac-12 play. We have one guy who is really nails at the line(AA) and other than that we have liabilities all over the floor.
* We can not shoot, at all. Our "premiere" 3 pt threat is AA shooting a robust 36% on the year. Dorsey and anderson shoot at a little better clip, but they have 1/3rd the shot attempts and Dorsey will likely see a lot of pine as the lineup tightens up. Having no ability to shoot the ball, or having any threat from deep will be incredibly problematic as teams can double down on our posts and force players to shoot jumpers.
* As mentioned above, our posts have enjoyed playing against much smaller and less talented players throughout the preseason. We have very little depth on the front line, and as the talent gap closes with our opponents as well as playing on the road, foul trouble will begin to show up and create problems. By no means am I saying our posts can't play against better lineups, but playing on the road and having pac-12 teams not respect any shooter on our team will cause problems for our bigs as the talent gap dissipates.
* AA - The guys heart and bulldog attitude is great at times, but his inability to shoot is maddening. Over his last 6 games, he has gone over 33% only once(vs Grambling state btw). When your 2nd highest volume shooter is also terrible at actually, shooting, well that leads to no scoring as the defense gets better.
* Schedule - Not playing AZ twice could be as much of a problem as it is a blessing. Getting a second shot at Zona, a team we typically play well against on the road, could shoot us in the foot if we need another signature win. Right now, a lot of our season could come down to Friday the 13th vs Zona.
* Sorry, as I'm not a romar fan for in game mgt, but his continued mis-management of games is ridiculous. I can't count how many times this season alone I've watched teams go on huge runs and he sits on timeouts without getting his team settled or just breaking momentum. The inability to call a TO, set up a few plays which can get us good looks is going to continue to rear it's ugly head as we play close games. This team isn't going to blow out a whole lot of teams unless they have horrid shooting nights.
Gotta say we need to finish 3-2 in our first 5 conference games. The bay area is never kind to UW teams, and we likely will come out 0-2. A split would be great. We should win WSU/UO/OSU, but again we just lost to Stony Brook so no game are gimmies. We have to finish at least 9-9 in conference, and win a game in the pac-12 tourney. We need to build up equity in the first half of the pac12, as the second half includes trips to oregon and LA, while our home games are Bay area, Zona and Utah.
What is concerning is that the Stony Brook game reminds us how close a margin there is between winning and losing for this team. I hate to pull in the USC'ism for this year, but this team could easily have 4+ losses already, and we're lucky to be 11-1 in many regards. Tulane, Oky, EWU, UTEP, Pacific were all games which easily could have gone the other way. Fortunately, this is the first which really went the other direction.
Now that the preseason has ended, I'll eat the crow and say this team won a whole lot more than I ever would have assumed. That being said, I still find it to be a pretty big mirage as most of the teams on the schedule we should beat. That's why they are scheduled. If you're going through preseason with more than 2-3 losses you're team is awful(see WSU). This team relies heavily upon shutting other teams down, and getting pretty lucky down the stretch which isn't attainable. There was a stat in the oky game where UW shoots over 80% from the line with 5 minutes or less to play. There is no way we'll continue above 80% through the pac-12.
A few stats which lead me to believe we're in big trouble going forward against better talent and actually playing road games.
* Three of our four top FT attempts are shooting 44%, 55%, and 69%. We are rarely blowing teams out, which means FT's will decide many games in Pac-12 play. We have one guy who is really nails at the line(AA) and other than that we have liabilities all over the floor.
* We can not shoot, at all. Our "premiere" 3 pt threat is AA shooting a robust 36% on the year. Dorsey and anderson shoot at a little better clip, but they have 1/3rd the shot attempts and Dorsey will likely see a lot of pine as the lineup tightens up. Having no ability to shoot the ball, or having any threat from deep will be incredibly problematic as teams can double down on our posts and force players to shoot jumpers.
* As mentioned above, our posts have enjoyed playing against much smaller and less talented players throughout the preseason. We have very little depth on the front line, and as the talent gap closes with our opponents as well as playing on the road, foul trouble will begin to show up and create problems. By no means am I saying our posts can't play against better lineups, but playing on the road and having pac-12 teams not respect any shooter on our team will cause problems for our bigs as the talent gap dissipates.
* AA - The guys heart and bulldog attitude is great at times, but his inability to shoot is maddening. Over his last 6 games, he has gone over 33% only once(vs Grambling state btw). When your 2nd highest volume shooter is also terrible at actually, shooting, well that leads to no scoring as the defense gets better.
* Schedule - Not playing AZ twice could be as much of a problem as it is a blessing. Getting a second shot at Zona, a team we typically play well against on the road, could shoot us in the foot if we need another signature win. Right now, a lot of our season could come down to Friday the 13th vs Zona.
* Sorry, as I'm not a romar fan for in game mgt, but his continued mis-management of games is ridiculous. I can't count how many times this season alone I've watched teams go on huge runs and he sits on timeouts without getting his team settled or just breaking momentum. The inability to call a TO, set up a few plays which can get us good looks is going to continue to rear it's ugly head as we play close games. This team isn't going to blow out a whole lot of teams unless they have horrid shooting nights.
Gotta say we need to finish 3-2 in our first 5 conference games. The bay area is never kind to UW teams, and we likely will come out 0-2. A split would be great. We should win WSU/UO/OSU, but again we just lost to Stony Brook so no game are gimmies. We have to finish at least 9-9 in conference, and win a game in the pac-12 tourney. We need to build up equity in the first half of the pac12, as the second half includes trips to oregon and LA, while our home games are Bay area, Zona and Utah.
Comments
The key as always will be winning games at home. 7-2 at home in conference is what we need to have as a goal. From there, there are a number of road games that we have in conference against dreck ... so getting 4-5 or 5-4 in conference on the road needs to be a realistic goal.