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The QB Situation

TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,815
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Besides being a #TCUMBA Superiority Guy, I've also got a few degrees from the UW ... one of those degrees is in mathematics.

Two mathematics classes made a profound influence on how I see the world ... classes titled "Real Analysis." The professor in those classes (same guy) used to make the following comment over and over - to paraphrase "assume the wrong side of the proof and prove that the wrong side can't be possible."

So what the fuck does that mean on a football board?

The first goal in the list of "to do" items for the UW is to put themselves back in a position to contend for conference championships. In today's world of football, it's almost impossible to do so without a difference maker at the QB position (or at least a competent option - see Hogan, Kevin). However, it's also true that another common thought in looking at QBs is that experience matters and generally the oldest player will have earned the respect of his teammates and be given the first option to prove that he's the option.

From what I had seen in my limited halfbrain knowledge and experience watching the program, Williams was the one QB behind Price that always looked like he had a bit of the "IT factor" when he played. However, Miles had the game experience, in theory the belief of the players behind him, and as such, was the favorite for the job ... albeit suspended for the first game.

Lindy starts the first game at Hawaii and although he played a reasonable first half, the second half was in the NickMontanaFS and RonnieFouchFS caliber of play. After that game, I don't think anybody on the team would complain about whether or not Lindy was an option at the QB position going forward.

Miles comes back after the Hawaii game and gets 3 cupcakes, Cal, and 2 touch games. 5-2 was pretty much a given outcome even in the worst of worlds. But what we've seen in the Oregon and Stanford games is that Miles has way too many limitations in his game from a passing standpoint to be a capable PAC level starter ... much less a PAC level starter on a team that contends for a conference title. After tonight, in my mind, it's 100% painfully obvious that Miles doesn't have the ability. Moreover, his actions in the offseason, combined with his general and overall command of the offense, tells me that he doesn't have the capability to really grow into the position. I would argue that if you talked to the roster at this point, and caught them in a truthful moment, they'd echo the same.

But tonight, we saw Troy Williams. We say that he jumped ahead of Lindy on the depth chart. We saw that he made throws with conviction. We saw that he had pocket presence and poise to extend plays when needed. We saw that when he made the decision to run he did so with the same conviction that he threw the ball. In general, we saw a player that had elements that you look for out of an elite caliber QB.

When you look at Jake Browning, you have a player that appears to have many of the elements you look for at the QB position. IMO, he's a realistic option to be the starter at some point next season. As such, it's paramount that time is spent this year trying to figure out what you have with Troy Williams. If he shows that he has some potential, that makes your position that much stronger going into next season. If not, it'll be that much easier for the players to get behind the new, young starter at some point next year. But the conference is gone at this point. We're going to go bowling. The defense will help to win it's fair share of games. Recruiting will bring help into the future as we run off the Sark in the program. But Troy Williams needs to start this year. I have no doubt that by his 6th start he'll show a far better performance that what we've been seeing out of Cyler Miles.
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    EwaDawgEwaDawg Member Posts: 4,000
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    dhdawg said:

    How long does it take you to write these?

    Its pretty obvious that he started writing when the game ended. HTH
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    TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,815
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    dhdawg said:

    How long does it take you to write these?

    That one? No more than 5-10 minutes while watching highlights in between.
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    FenwickFenwick Member Posts: 1,174
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    like I said, Williams looks like he wants to own the field
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    dtddtd Member Posts: 4,104
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    EwaDawg said:

    dhdawg said:

    How long does it take you to write these?

    Its pretty obvious that he started writing when the game ended. HTH
    So around 5:30 pst?
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    PostGameOrangeSlicesPostGameOrangeSlices Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 24,603
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    Here's some "real analysis" for ya. It might change the way you see the world, even...


    TL,DR
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    SwayeSwaye Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 41,067
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    Agree with everything Tequilla said. I do not think Miles is the guy this year, next year, or any year. Williams may not be either. But let's play him a few games so we see what we have. It's at least an unknown at this point. Miles is known - noodle arm with concrete drying decision times.
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    DooglesDoogles Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 12,476
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    Miles is not good. The north is out of reach, play the guy who can actually have a shot at leading a Pac 12 team.
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    VegasdawgVegasdawg Member Posts: 370
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    I say play Williams and move the true freshman up to 2nd on the depth chart. The future needs to get the swim trunks wet. And go sign some talent.
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    UWerentThereManUWerentThereMan Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 3,475
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    Tequilla said:

    I don't care about the completion percentage for Williams in his first game action.

    I'm far more concerned about whether he looks like he belong ... whether the moment is too big for him ... does he show poise ... does he show decisiveness with his decision making ... does he show the ability to fit passes into tight spots AND the confidence to make those throws

    Bottom line is that there will be growing pains. But the upside to Williams at this point is greater than anything that we'll get out of Miles. What we've learned at this point from Miles is that his best trait is protecting the ball. If/When he doesn't do that, you get a result like tonight.

    I think Williams performance should be compared to a game where Miles came in at garbage time as well. If you're going to have to prove the opposite, we have to find the common denominator and compare from there. Miles has looked ok in garbage time when a game wasn't hinged to his performance.

    I actually caught the game on old fashioned radio though so I can't tell how shit miles looked nor how good Williams looked.

    But from what CP has said in the past is he has to be damn sure a QB isn't the guy before swapping him out. I'm sure most here are done with Miley but from a coaching standpoint, I have no clue.
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    topdawgnctopdawgnc Member Posts: 7,838
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    What I liked about Williams ... he made decisions and committed.

    Miles ... froze ... thought ... froze some more.
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    TequillaTequilla Member Posts: 19,815
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    Tequilla said:

    I don't care about the completion percentage for Williams in his first game action.

    I'm far more concerned about whether he looks like he belong ... whether the moment is too big for him ... does he show poise ... does he show decisiveness with his decision making ... does he show the ability to fit passes into tight spots AND the confidence to make those throws

    Bottom line is that there will be growing pains. But the upside to Williams at this point is greater than anything that we'll get out of Miles. What we've learned at this point from Miles is that his best trait is protecting the ball. If/When he doesn't do that, you get a result like tonight.

    I think Williams performance should be compared to a game where Miles came in at garbage time as well. If you're going to have to prove the opposite, we have to find the common denominator and compare from there. Miles has looked ok in garbage time when a game wasn't hinged to his performance.

    To use some mathematics lingo, you're focusing on the wrong proof.

    The assumption isn't whether Williams is the right answer at this point. We can't prove that either way at this point. The assumption is that Cyler Miles IS a PAC championship caliber QB.

    We've seen Miles play against the two teams that you need to beat to win the North (Stanford and Oregon). In both games, his limitations were exposed. His inability to make basic plays required out of that position then compounds in hurting the running game. There's no risk to the defense.

    When you have a situation where you are able to identify that a certain player ISN'T the answer, then you SHOULD move onto the next option IF that option is one that COULD be a solution.

    Simply put, moving onto Williams means that he COULD be a solution. Not moving on to Williams means that there's enough data already outstanding to conclude that he CAN'T be a solution.
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    DooglesDoogles Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 12,476
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    Miles is such a mental midget i bet one of you Seattle based half brains could easily bate him into knocking you the fuck out. Might be our best chance to get him kicked off the squad.

    Take one for the team someone.
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    topdawgnctopdawgnc Member Posts: 7,838
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    Swaye said:

    The cool thing if we switch to Troy will be all the idiots on Doogfarm freaking out that Miles will transfer. I couldn't give a nickles worth of a fuck if Miles transfers. He sucks. Free up a spot please.

    Sounds like addition through subtraction
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