Tariffs raises costs for US households by $1200 on average!!
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Agree to disagree. Companies ceased their spends in Q1 and started loosening up. When the full year comes out, you're gonna see that it is on par with the trajectory with how the economy was already doing.
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@puppylove_sugarsteel (good at everything) has been supplanted.
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Low level retail PM condescends to CFO about market forces. You can't make this stuff up
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Tariffs are a side show. There’s a coming balance sheet crises coming for tech though around how they are determining useful life of all of these assets for GAAP reporting. Big write-downs coming. But that’s for another day to deal with.
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I was specifically told by resident economist @HHusky Q3 was going to be when the wheels come off.
Ftr I actually agree with @HuskyBuck that budget spends were backloaded. A lot of cash sat on the sidelines while the democrats and media screamed that tariffs would result in recession. Gotta remember how out of touch the administrative class is. EOY is here and everyone is trying to spend money before they get their budget slashed YOY. Happens every year but this is larger.
Just goes to show the weak summer numbers were artificially created by chicken Littles.
Not the only factor, I don’t disagree with @Bob_C but I can see both.
Another factor is growth numbers being dragged down by G spending and employment cuts. Private sector is more than offsetting it however which is fantastic news looking forward.
As much as politically id love it you can't do austerity all at once. You gotta wind down fed spending at a rate the private sector can offset.
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Cash on the sidelines was incentivized to come in because of trade deals and the certainty of R&D spending tax treatment being confirmed as extended in July.
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We'll see.
How much will you celebrate if it takes until Q4 2025?
That's now, you know.
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Thats why the numbers are for Q3
When you predicted disaster
There wont be any numbers because of the shut down
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I do think there is an AI bubble which is a much bigger problem than anything we are talking about. You are already hearing about it with Open AI wanting government guarantees on its contracts with other businesses. Winners and losers are always fine, but the amount of money out there will create systemic issues when the losers bankers have big holes. We might go into real revolution if we bail them out.
Long term, Elon is taking about a world where the marginal cost of everything is approaching zero. Sounds great and all and maybe it could be true. But if it is true then the valuations on everything are insanely off. If the marginal cost and thus the prices are close to zero, then any investment is also worth close to nothing.
