Playoffs
Arw going to be a mess.
USC winning yesterday makes USC-Oregon a playoff elimination game now. I don't see a reasonable scenario where a 10-2 Duck squad gets in if we? lose to USC. Remotely possible if we only barely lose to UW and Michigan loses to Buck.
USC is in a good, but tenuous spot, at 10-2. They won't get in if Michigan beats Buck. Good thing that never happens.
The fallout from OU beating Bama is that it is all but certain 5 teams from the SEC are getting in. Two of these must happen to prevent 5 SEC 2 loss teams: Auburn beating Bama Mizzou beating OU, Tennessee beating Vanderbilt.
With 5 SEC, at most 3 B1G, that leaves 3 spots for the ACC, Big12, and Notre Dame.
ND is in.
So, that leaves only the ACC and Big12 champs. But what if Texas Tech loses to BYU in the Big12 championship? History says the committe won't penalize TT. But who gets bumped? Utah is also looming at #12-13 and is hot.
Add the fact that the ACC champ will be a horrible team (GT, UVa, or possibly SMU), and a few to several deserving teams are going to get the shaft.
The rage from fanbases such as Miami, which beat ND yet has zero realistic chance to get in, or any number of 2-loss teams outside the top 11, will be special.
Punch line: the rules will change next year.
Last year, Oregon got the raw sausage with seeding, so they changed it.
This year, too many legit teams will be left out so that JMU and a shitty ACC school can take 2 DEI spots such that the pressure to expand will take this to 16 teams.
If they automatic qualifiers remain, then I think 16 is the sweet spot under the current conference alignments.
Thank you for your attention.
Comments
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Punch line: the rules will change next year.
nailed it here, perfect for the suits to go back and say 'we left out too many GOOD teams, need to let them in,' bang, expanded playoffs.
we? will get mad, but will still watch.
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I can't decide how I feel about automatic bids. On one hand they're bullshit, but the narrative that expanding the PO and giving the Power 2 more bids benefits those conferences is backwards. It limits them. The SEC could get 7 teams in this year if there weren't auto qualifiers from the welfare conferences, but they're the big bad because they want 5 out of 16 or whatever?
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The current autoqualifier model blows, though. I'm surprised it wasn't a bigger problem last year, but the SEC only had three 1 or 2 loss teams.
I hope it goes to 16 while expanding auto qualifiers to a 4-4-2-2-1 model. This has at least one key benefit: scheduling tough nonconference opponents won't come with a huge risk like it does now.
Further, I really like the idea of the "Championship Weekend" being play-in games within conferences. Say, 1 vs 2 has no penalty (both are in), whereas 3 plays 6 and 4 plays 5 for the last 2 auto bids. It would be different in the ACC and Big 12, but same idea.
THAT would be meaningful football, compared to the worthless championship games we have now. Huge TV dollars, too. Everyone wins.
