How far Huskies fell in Big Ten power rankings after Wisconsin loss
Demond Williams Jr. is dropped well short of the first-down marker late in the Huskies’ loss to Wisconsin Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium, In Madison, WI. (Dean Rutz / The Seattle Times)
By Jon Wilner Bay Area News Group
The Big Ten power rankings will be published weekly throughout the regular season using a mix of data-driven insight and unapologetic subjectivity. With 18 teams, nine conference games and wild variations in the quality of non-conference schedules, comparative analysis is an inherently flawed approach. Which is fine, because the Hotline hasn’t been wrong about anything in at least 90 minutes.
The Big Ten gobbled its own in Week 11 in a fashion reminiscent of the former Pac-12, or the current Big 12.
Washington’s face plant at Wisconsin and Iowa’s come-from-ahead loss to Oregon eliminated the Huskies and Hawkeyes from the College Football Playoff race.
That leaves five teams in contention.
Two are locks: Ohio State and Indiana.
One is well positioned: Oregon.
Two are on the bubble: USC and Michigan.
With four weeks of play remaining, five teams in contention and seven at-large bids available, there are far too many permutations to reasonably address in this space.
So let’s focus on one scenario: the nightmare.
There’s a plausible sequence of results that would leave the Big Ten with two playoff participants, Ohio State and Indiana. One would grab the automatic berth by winning the conference championship; the other would take the at-large route as the runner-up.
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How would the two-bid scenario become reality?
It only takes four poorly timed losses:
— Oregon loses two of three against Minnesota (6-3), USC (7-2) and Washington (6-3).
— Michigan loses one of three to Northwestern (5-4), Maryland (4-5) or Ohio State (9-0).
— USC loses one of three to Iowa (6-3), Oregon (8-1) or UCLA (3-6).
The likelihood of all three steps unfolding is less than 50 percent — substantially less, to be sure. But it’s also not zero.
Obviously, there’s no policy preventing three-loss teams from receiving at-large bids. And this would be the year, what with the selection committee changing its evaluation process to emphasize quality wins and schedule strength.
But those same changes make it more likely that the three-loss participant would come from the SEC, which is clearly deeper than the Big Ten. (Keep an eye on Texas, especially if the Longhorns split their upcoming showdowns with Georgia and Texas A&M.)
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Now, to be clear: We aren’t suggesting two bids is the most likely outcome for the Big Ten when the 12-team field is announced Dec. 7. In fact, the conference has a better chance to send four teams into the CFP than two.
But because the two-bid scenario is within the range of semi-reasonable outcomes — and because it would come as a surprise to fans from coast to coast — the Hotline believes it’s worth addressing.
We want readers to be prepared for every eventuality, including the Big Ten’s two-bid nightmare scenario.
To the power rankings …
(All times Pacific)
1. Ohio State (9-0/6-0)
Result: won at Purdue 34-10
Next up: vs. UCLA (4:30 p.m. on NBC)
Comment: The Buckeyes are a lock for the CFP even if they lose to Michigan. But what if they lose to Michigan and then Indiana in the Big Ten title game? Still a lock. (Previous: 2)
2. Indiana (10-0/7-0)
Result: won at Penn State 27-24
Next up: vs. Wisconsin (9 a.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: Hours after Fernando Mendoza led a game-winning drive, his successor in Berkeley, freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, beat Louisville in overtime. (Previous: 1)
3. Oregon (8-1/5-1)
Result: won at Iowa 18-16
Next up: vs. Minnesota (Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: We were struck by how many media members expressed surprise that the Ducks outplayed Iowa at the line of scrimmage and by how many Oregon fans expressed surprise that the media was surprised. (Previous: 3)
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4. USC (7-2/5-1)
Result: beat Northwestern 38-17
Next up: vs. Iowa (12:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: Yes, the fake punt was a great play that should have been held for the second half of a game the Trojans were in danger of losing. (Previous: 4)
5. Michigan (7-2/5-1)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Northwestern (9 a.m. on Fox)
Comment: Meanwhile, a key development involving the Wolverines is unfolding off the field: The Big Ten has reportedly renewed its push for private capital. Will Michigan and USC cave, or stand strong? (Previous: 5)
6. Iowa (6-3/4-2)
Result: lost to Oregon 18-16
Next up: at USC (12:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: With a playoff bid spoiled, will the Hawkeyes become a playoff spoiler? A victory in the Coliseum would be bad news for the Big Ten. (Previous: 8)
7. Nebraska (7-3/4-3)
Result: won at UCLA 28-21
Next up: idle
Comment: News from the future: Cornhuskers quarterback TJ Lateef enters the transfer portal. (Just kidding … not really.) (Previous: 10)
8. Washington (6-3/3-3)
Result: lost at Wisconsin 13-10
Next up: vs. Purdue (4 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: The Huskies lost to an opponent whose revolving door of quarterbacks completed five passes for 24 yards. Think about that for a minute … or a few days … or forever. (Previous: 6)
9. Illinois (6-3/3-3)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Maryland (12:30 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: With the Terps, Wisconsin and Northwestern left to play, the Illini could — and perhaps should — finish the regular season with nine wins. Add a bowl victory and it would be 10 for the second consecutive season. (Previous: 7)
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10. Minnesota (6-3/4-2)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Oregon (Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: With two weeks to prepare and the Ducks coming off the thriller at Iowa, the Gophers are venturing to Eugene at the perfect time. But can they take advantage? (Previous: 9)
11. Northwestern (5-4/3-3)
Result: lost at USC 38-17
Next up: vs. Michigan (9 a.m. on Fox)
Comment: We mentioned this last week, but it’s worth repeating: Good chance the Wildcats remain stuck on five wins through the stretch run and are home for the holidays. (Previous: 11)
12. UCLA (3-6/3-3)
Result: lost to Nebraska 28-21
Next up: at Ohio State (4:30 p.m. on NBC)
Comment: The move to SoFi Stadium for home games is reportedly close to a reality. Although the Hotline wonders if the Bruins are playing the leverage game with the Rose Bowl to secure more favorable terms with their lease. (Previous: 12)
13. Rutgers (5-5/2-5)
Result: beat Maryland 35-20
Next up: idle
Comment: Beat Penn State in the finale and the Scarlet Knights will secure their third conference win, a .500 overall record and a bowl berth — all with one of the worst defenses in the country. (Previous: 15)
14. Maryland (4-5/1-5)
Result: lost at Rutgers 35-20
Next up: at Illinois (12:30 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: Mike Locksley’s seat heat is increasing, although the Terps would have to take freshman quarterback Malik Washington’s situation into account were they to consider a coaching change. (Previous: 14)
15. Michigan State (3-6/0-6)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Penn State (12:30 p.m. on CBS)
Comment: The bye week came and went without news, so the Spartans are clearly committed to Jonathan Smith … for a few more weeks. (Previous: 13)
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16. Penn State (3-6/0-6)
Result: lost to Indiana 27-24
Next up: at Michigan State (12:30 p.m. on CBS)
Comment: The Nittany Lions have looked like the Nittany Lions were supposed to look for two of their 36 quarters this season: The fourth against Oregon and the fourth against Indiana. And they couldn’t close on either occasion. (Previous: 16)
17. Wisconsin (3-6/1-5)
Result: beat Washington 13-10
Next up: at Indiana (9 a.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: So many statistical oddities emerged Saturday evening, but one of our favorites is this: The 13 points basically doubled Wisconsin’s total from the previous three games combined (seven). Incredible. (Previous: 18)
18. Purdue (2-8/0-7)
Result: lost to Ohio State 34-10
Next up: at Washington (4 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: Barry Odom couldn’t possibly regret taking the job in West Lafayette, right? … Nah. (Previous: 17)
Jon Wilner: jwilner@bayareanewsgroup .com. Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP top-25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree.
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will be published weekly throughout the regular season using a mix of data-driven insight andunapologetic subjectivity.
