Here are Mariners’ playoff possibilities with 12 games remaining
By Adam JudeSeattle Times staff reporter
With 12 games remaining in the regular season, the Mariners have put themselves in position to claim their first American League West crown since 2001.
To stay there, they’ll have to conquer their greatest demon this week: the road.
Since the All-Star break, the Mariners are 23-6 at home, the best record in MLB in the second half.
Over that same stretch, they are 8-17 on the road.
The Mariners (82-68) wrapped up a weeklong homestand Sunday by completing a four-game sweep of the Los Angeles Angels for their ninth win in a row, putting them one-half game ahead of the Astros (82-69) and 3 1/2 ahead of the Rangers (79-72) in the division.
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“We’ve got the pieces to do it,” catcher Cal Raleigh said Sunday. “We’ve got the pitching, the defense, the deep lineup to do it. We’ve got guys that have been here before. I have a lot of confidence in the rest of the clubhouse. We’ve been playing loose; we’ve been playing free, which is good to see. And it’s just continuing to do that.”
In the middle of a dismal stretch during their last road trip, the Mariners had a team meeting in Tampa. As Raleigh suggested, they’ve seemed to play with less anxiety since.
“You get that point where you just say, ‘Screw it.’ Go out there and play; don’t worry about the rest of the stuff. Whatever happens, happens,” Raleigh said. “Sometimes we try to micromanage. We try to take control of certain outcomes. And baseball is just a game where you just gotta go play freely, nothing to lose … and if you put your best foot forward, you play hard, you do things right, usually good things happen.”
After an off day Monday, the Mariners begin their final road trip Tuesday with a three-game series in Kansas City.
Angels vs. Mariners Highlights
On Friday, they open a three-game set in Houston in what is shaping up to be one of the most important road series in Mariners history.
AL West | W | L | GB | PCT | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mariners | 82 | 68 | - | .547 | 9-1 |
Astros | 81 | 69 | 1 | .540 | 4-6 |
Rangers | 79 | 71 | 3 | .527 | 7-3 |
AL Wild Card | W | L | WCGB | PCT | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yankees | 83 | 66 | +2.5 | .557 | 6-4 |
Red Sox | 82 | 68 | +1 | .547 | 4-6 |
Astros | 81 | 69 | - | .540 | 4-6 |
Rangers | 79 | 71 | 2 | .527 | 7-3 |
Guardians | 78 | 71 | 2.5 | .523 | 9-1 |
Mariners playoff odds
Proj W | Proj L | ROS W% | Make Playoffs | Win Div | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
88.8 | 73.2 | .564 | 96.4% | 66.6% | 10.4% |
FanGraphs
Updated as of Sept. 14
“We know what’s in front of us,” manager Dan Wilson said. “We know what needs to continue to happen, and these guys have a way of doing it. And what we’ve seen here night after night, I think their preparation, their mindset at game time, has been impressive, and that’s what’s going to continue to need to happen. That’s what they’ll do when they get on the road, too, and we’ll be ready.”
The Royals (75-75) are expected to activate veteran right-hander Michael Wacha and left-hander Cole Ragans, a 2024 All-Star, off the injured list to start the first two games against the Mariners.
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The Mariners have Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo lined up to start in Kansas City.
That sets up Bryan Woo to start Friday night in Houston, followed by George Kirby and Gilbert through the weekend.
The Mariners and Astros have split their first 10 games this season.
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A fan holds a sign telling the Mariners to win the American League West before a game against the Angels on Sunday. (Lindsey Wasson / The Associated Press)
A fan holds a sign telling the Mariners to win the American League West before a game against the Angels on Sunday. (Lindsey Wasson / The Associated Press)
As of Monday morning, here’s how FanGraphs’ model projects the AL playoff picture to take shape:
Odds to win the division:
Mariners, 67.6%
Astros, 29.8%
Rangers, 2.6%
Odds to make the playoffs:
Mariners, 96.4%
Astros, 72.3%
Rangers, 30.0%
Odds to clinch first-round bye:
Blue Jays, 92.0%
Tigers, 77.1%
Mariners, 19.8%
Yankees, 6.9%
Astros, 3.0%
Odds to win the World Series:
Yankees, 11.0%
Blue Jays, 10.9%
Mariners, 10.8%
Tigers, 7.0%
Red Sox, 3.7%
Astros, 3.5%
Rangers, 0.6%
Guardians, 0.3%
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The Astros and Rangers began a pivotal three-game series Monday night in Houston.
The Astros have Thursday off, and they’re expected to turn to their top three starters against the Mariners for the weekend: Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Jason Alexander.
Houston’s pitching staff has been riddled with injuries this season, and the Astros’ All-Star closer, Josh Hader, is expected to remain on the injured list through the end of the regular season, at least.
The Astros do have their most intimidating slugger, Yordan Alvarez, back in the lineup after he missed nearly four months with a hand injury. Since his return on Aug. 26, Alvarez is slashing .369/.455/.569 (1.024 OPS) with three homers in 77 plate appearances.
Update: Alvarez had to leave Monday’s game in the first inning after he slipped on home plate and suffered an apparent leg injury. Alvarez needed assistance walking down the steps into the Astros dugout. The team later described the injury as a left ankle sprain.
Beyond winning the AL West, the Mariners are also within striking distance of the Detroit Tigers for the AL’s No. 2 seed.
That’s significant because the top two division winners from each league receive byes through the wild-card rounds and have home-field advantage in the best-of-five Division Series.
The Tigers (85-65) have had a stranglehold on the AL Central all season, but they’ve fallen off a bit lately — losing 12 of 19 — and are just three games up on the Mariners for that No. 2 seed.
Nine of the Tigers’ final 12 games are against teams in the playoff hunt. Notably, they have two series left against the Cleveland Guardians (78-71), who have won nine of 10 and are just 2.5 games back of Houston for the third and final AL wild-card spot.
The Tigers close out their schedule with three games against the Red Sox (82-68) in Boston.
Adam Jude: ajude@seattletimes .com. Adam Jude is a Seattle Mariners beat writer at The Seattle Times. He previously covered UW Huskies football and the Seattle Seahawks for The Seattle Times.