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Kyle Bass: China’s Economic Spiral and the Coming Taiwan War
DerekJohnson
Administrator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 67,523 
in Tug Tavern
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For the record, I'm not convinced that China will invade Taiwan
They 100% plan to. Whether the cards get played on the table isn't certain. There's so many different factors at play.
Internal CCP jockeying
Similar political games within the PLA
Economy continuing to worsen
The failures in Ukraine and Iran
To name a few. Their Window may have closed with Trump being elected.
FTR they can only attempt it roughly in April or October because of the weather in the straight.
Regardless of IF they invade it will continue to be an existential goal that shapes the CCP's direction.
They've been saying they plan to for ages. Steve Bannon says their invasion is imminent. But the USA still controls much of the waterways over there and our satellite tech is second-to-nne. It would be a suicide mission to invade, if the US stepped up to defend. I think Xi knows that. It would only be from total desperation that he'd do it.
Taiwan's government has more right to exist than ChYna's.
Xi lives in an information bubble of yes men and rivals intent on his downfall. There is no guarantee he knows anything. Look at how bad the covid responses were handled, or the election, or tariffs etc.
Similar to the left here they smell their own farts and declare them to smell beautiful. Who's going to object to Stalin declaring so?