Semi finals and NFL Wild Card picks
greenblood
Member Posts: 14,523
Buckeyes -6
i actually got a nice beat on them at -1.5 in a lookahead line before the Rose Bowl, betting that the winner of that game would get a line bump. I was right as the line against Texas opened at -6.5. Made additional bets at -6 as well. I think Ohio State is playing angry and easily has the best roster in football. I also alt lined the buckeyes at -14.5 and a leg in a reverse teaser at -12. I just think the Buckeyes roll.
Penn St. +1
Big game Franklin I know. But I think this is the best Notre Dame has faced all year, Georgia included. Notre Dane isn’t getting away with 90 passing yards this round.
Chargers -3
Actually got them at -1.5 before week 18 started in a lookahead, so I like this spot. Texans are banged up, and there are few teams hotter than the Chargers right now. Also dipping the under 42-5 and under Texans team total of 20.
Steelers +10
Steelers look like shit right now, but these teams know each other well, and the Ravens will be without Zay Flowers. Ravens win but Steelers cover.
Bills -7.5
(got this in a lookahead) at -9 I hesitate. But with the bad weather I do like the under 47.5
Eagles -4.5.
Hurts is fine, as siriani is playing head games. Packers are limping in and I think Philly will overwhelm them. I also sprinkled alt line of -10.5, +14.5, and -17.5. Also bet the over 45 and eagles team total over 24.5.
Bucs -3
I think this might be the best game of the day. I love how Baler is playing, and I think they’ll bounce back against a shaky Commanders defense. The commanders have only beat 2 teams with a winning record all year (the bengals early when they were struggling and the Eagles when Hurts got hurt). I also love the over 49 when I got it. Now that it’s 50.5, the over is getting tight.
Rams pickem.
The Rams have played better, and both Puka and Kupp will be rested and healthy. Stafford is also one of the best QBs against the blitz and the Vikings are the one of the top blitzing defenses with Denver. I think the Rams running game will also control the game and keep Minnesota off the field, and will keep their offense out of sync.
I did a 6 point teasers with the rams and bills early in the week. I also did multiple two leg moneyline parlays with the favorites outside of Baltimore and Buffalo as those lines didn’t add enough risk to return payouts.
Comments
I thing Penn St is the better team but I also think that Franklin running his mouth about Notre Dame and being in a conference has given a lot of unnecessary fuel to the ND effort … I look for ND to win a 24-20 type game
The ONLY pause I have with Ohio St is I don't think they can play at a higher level than they did last week and I'm not sure that Texas can play much worse … there's a lot of regression to the mean potential here
Agree with your call on the Steelers … that's way too many points for Playoff Lamar
I don't know what to really make of Minnesota … they seem better than they were 2 years ago when they outperformed their metrics by a bunch and then Danny Dimes beat them in the playoffs. Wouldn't surprise me if either team wins … and now you've got the prospect that the game gets moved to Arizona. Good times
I think Penn St can score enough offensively to force Leonard to have to take chances.
There is room for regression in the Ohio st and Texas game. But I think Ohio St is a freight train right now. I don’t see any game with them being in single digits
Rams and Vikes game will be tight for sure. But LA isn’t really a home field advantage for the Rams, so I don’t think moving the game to Arizona affects them too much. The team you like in LA should be the same in Arizona.
the buckey script is them winning the natty but losing to michigan in the same season. if we? had beat ducks this year it would have happened for them.