Congratulations to the Dow hitting 40,0000
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Living in Montana, Bozeman within 5 years is going to be having a fire sale on existing houses if we are in any similar economic structure in the USA. Service workers are living in roaming RV communities the pricing is so bad and college students aren’t wanting to leave the dorms until forced out by incoming freshmen.
I’ll pick up a hot deal when I move back there from the less-desired “city” I’m in now here.
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Im glad youre informed again, after the fact. So you mean to tell me your house went from something like $600,000 to $1,000,000 and you're lamenting the days you didnt have that extra $400,000? Bob, you are trippin!
Fellas, there's no bubble. In 2006 banks were approving loans to peeps because of their obsession with Mortgage Backed Securities and no problems lending to people who had no business owning a house and predictably, those peeps started to fail making their payments. Tell me in your own words where this crash will happen in 2024. Everybody in 2024 is well above water with a healthy supply of would be buyers on the sideline. Any takers?
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Lol I know bro….you're good at picking stocks after they've already gone up and telling us about them afterwards lol.
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it’s the opposite of a bubble. People keep trying to tell you that.
Demand is not being propped up by cheap mortgages and loose underwriting.
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Yeah 2006 was yesterday.
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That’s not the argument being made here, Throbber. Dumb EverettChris made his usual stupid statement that there’s gonna be a fire sale in Bozeman Montana.
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Again, using your numbers, what exactly does $400k in equity get you if you have to buy something else in same area or a similarly priced area since all the similar or step up houses have gone up as well? You'd be far worse off cashflow wise. I thought you were a finance expert.
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Exactly. It's not a bubble, it's a broken market with no volume. Limits economic mobility. Imagine the pay increase that would be required to move from SF to LA or something if you had to sell and rebuy a similar $2m house.
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The government stopped the fight before the 08 crash ran its course
A lot more homes should have gone a lot cheaper. Government local and state stopped it enough to where the hedge funds bought the houses leading to our rental economy. Artificial raising of value
The short sellers in 08 couldn't believe how long it took for mortgage securities to crash because the banks kept trying to rig the game until they couldn't
This is different because rates were low and not a lot of ARMs
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If something catastrophic were to happen to your finance, wouldnt you rather have that extra 400,000 in equity? You didn't answer the question on whether you would take the 2020 price or the 2024 price?
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The mortgage rates WERE NOT low in 2008. I think its finally happened. Race has gone senile on us.
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Relative to the actual risk of default rate leading up to 2008, they were very cheap.
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Buck can't read. Mortgage rates were low now. Until Biden
Compared to 11 percent when we bought in 87 rates were low in 05. Cash machine on re fi
The adjustable rates kicking in tipped the crash over
Before you were born. Dumbass
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People forget that the biggest impetus for balancing the housing market after ‘08 was hedge funds stepping in and buying 10’s of thousands of homes. People forget that.
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Why did you hate depreciation?
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Then maybe you should use the words "ARE" low instead of "WERE" low. Most people have at least mortages at 3.5 And if you think, that mortgage rates are biden's fault, you're mistaken. The FED determines mortgage rates and they should have been climbing a decade ago.
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Maybe you should go fuck yourself
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Inflation raised the rates and that's on Biden
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I did point it out
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Actually the Fed rates don't dictate mortgage rates. The risk free rate of return does, which is widely accepted as the ten year T-bill (for now). We went over the fact a couple of weeks ago that fed rates and T-bill rates aren't always connected, depending on demand. See Obama's term where banks just bought t-bills at 3.5% using ~0% fed funds rates and didn't loan it out to the general economy and we still had ~5.5% mortgage rates. Keep working on this finance thing, you'll get it when you are in your 40's maybe.
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You guys are talking about IRs and home equity to a child who rents an apartment in South Lake Union 2 blocks from the bar he plays shuffleboard at.
just FYI -
The Fed determines mortgage rates.
LOL
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He'd need to I'm betting his love life is nonexistent. With women anyway.
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Actually, it's upon you to read what is written, I didn't have an issue understanding what he said.
Slow down and stop trying to win everything and gotcha everyone and quit being an ass.
It's a discussion not a competition!
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Reply @Bob_C
New builds in some states far outstrip demand(Nevada) while others(Cali) still have restricted supply propping prices up.
Then you have weird demographics with boomers snatching up larger and larger empty nests instead of downsizing or buying entry-level rentals and pricing out young couples.
A shrinking population but we just added millions of illegals.
Lotta confounding variables doing weird stuff. When recessions hit everything correlates to -1 though so I'd bet on prices going down. Regional differences will be massive though.
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The indicators are all over the place as you said. Conventional methods of pulling levers won’t clean this up. Central planning gone wrong. Who could have predicted this.
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Sounds like an economy on fire.
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Kid thinks if you bought a house for $600,000 and it’s worth $1,000,000 now on Zillow you have an extra $400,000 in equity.
Fascinating naïveté.
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For the record, housing supply was massively short prior to the record low rates. Golden handcuffs for 75% of homeowners are clearly a massive drag on supply, though. If rates drop under 6, and closer to 5, people will start selling again. Right now selling out of that low of a rate only makes sense if you have to move for work, divorce, or someone died.
Wildcard in this is many people with the locked in low rates have a lot of equity and can HELOC in to a new home and keep the current place as a rental. Could also continue to keep supply low.
I don't see the market shifting much until a lot of people who bought in the last 5 years lose their jobs and can't pay the mortgage. Only issue there is those people also have a lot of equity and can pull a second mortgage or to float until they find work.
I also heard recently that Fannie or Freddie are about to make some rules changes to allow more people to pull second mortgages at lower rates. I can't remember the exact mechanics of it, but it basically sounded like another driver of inflation waiting to happen.
Local to WA, I think the state's inability to enact meaningful condo liability reform is a huge problem. People won't stop building apartments and shift to condos until those laws are fixed. That's a huge gap in the first time buyer market.
