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Here is a preview that makes sense. Actual data and analysis
Auburndawg
Member Posts: 362
http://cfbmatrix.com/20-washington-huskies-preview-2014/
My favorite parts:
Most fans may not realize that heading into 2013, Washington was the No. 18 recruiter (post-attrition) of the previous four years. Considering that all of the national title participants of the last nine years were teams ranked in the top 16 in terms of talent coming into their national title game season, UW was a fringe elite program for a season. However, the talent under-performed the schedule for the fifth straight year under former coach Steve Sarkisian.
The bottom line is Washington has a higher potential win ceiling with Petersen. Sarkisian maxed out at minus-1 coach effect, meaning he averaged 1 game under CFB Matrix talent/schedule projections each year. If Petersen can replicate his even or plus-1 game coach effect seasons he had at Boise then this program will be winning 9 to 11 games per year.
They have a higher talent ranking than ten of the teams on their schedule for a talent only baseline record of 10-3. Adjust up 2 games for home wins versus Stanford and UCLA and the record is 12-1. Down -1 games for a new head coach and have 11-2 with my favorite middle number at 10.5.
11-2
My favorite parts:
Most fans may not realize that heading into 2013, Washington was the No. 18 recruiter (post-attrition) of the previous four years. Considering that all of the national title participants of the last nine years were teams ranked in the top 16 in terms of talent coming into their national title game season, UW was a fringe elite program for a season. However, the talent under-performed the schedule for the fifth straight year under former coach Steve Sarkisian.
The bottom line is Washington has a higher potential win ceiling with Petersen. Sarkisian maxed out at minus-1 coach effect, meaning he averaged 1 game under CFB Matrix talent/schedule projections each year. If Petersen can replicate his even or plus-1 game coach effect seasons he had at Boise then this program will be winning 9 to 11 games per year.
They have a higher talent ranking than ten of the teams on their schedule for a talent only baseline record of 10-3. Adjust up 2 games for home wins versus Stanford and UCLA and the record is 12-1. Down -1 games for a new head coach and have 11-2 with my favorite middle number at 10.5.
11-2
Comments
Washington has a higher potential win ceiling with Petersen.
Water is wet.
I'LL TAKE IT!!!111!
Also said that once you are a top 25 recruiter for awhile (like UW) you will most likely be a top 25 recruiter going forward. WIW