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Allstate Playoff Predictor on ESPN.com

QuackingduckQuackingduck Member Posts: 5
in Duck Refuge
Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Texas + Oregon winning= Oregon having 94% chance at playoff. The predictor predicts the SEC to probably completely get shut out of the playoffs in that scenario, with Texas having a 57% chance at the playoffs to Alabama's 43%

Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Oklahoma State + Oregon= Oregon 98% chance at playoffs. Alabama has 88% chance at playoffs, and Ohio State has a 12% chance.


I wish I was as confident as this playoff predictor is.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor
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Comments

  • QuackingduckQuackingduck Member Posts: 5
    Who should we root for in the Texas vs Ok State game? (Which only has an 11% chance at an upset per this model.)

    Should we somewhat counter-intuively actually root for Texas, so that Georgia and Alabama would both end up stuck behind Texas if the committee follows head to head results? And of course Texas has several unimpressive wins, a loss to a good but not great OU team, and their CCG win would be almost meaningless.

    This model says we should root for Oklahoma State, but I wonder if that's correct.
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  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 106,804 Founders Club
    Quackingduck said:

    Who should we root for in the Texas vs Ok State game? (Which only has an 11% chance at an upset per this model.)

    Should we somewhat counter-intuively actually root for Texas, so that Georgia and Alabama would both end up stuck behind Texas if the committee follows head to head results? And of course Texas has several unimpressive wins, a loss to a good but not great OU team, and their CCG win would be almost meaningless.

    This model says we should root for Oklahoma State, but I wonder if that's correct.

    Here's a quarter


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  • BlueduckBlueduck Member Posts: 1,493
    "The predictor predicts the SEC to probably completely get shut out of the playoffs in that scenario"

    And a cry shall be heard out of that land like never before, such a cry shall shake the very foundation of the earth.
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  • Fire_Marshall_BillFire_Marshall_Bill Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 24,148 Founders Club
    edited November 2023
    They don't want the SEC to be shut out in any scenario. I'm surprised that was even published. The winner of the Bammer/GA game will get in. Even though Texas beat the Elephants.

    Remember, one loss Bammer "won" the NC the same year Ohio State was 12-0 but was being punished for shit 10 of those teams do constantly.
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  • QuackingduckQuackingduck Member Posts: 5
    edited November 2023
    Fire_Marshall_Bill said:

    They don't want the SEC to be shut out in any scenario. I'm surprised that was even published. The winner of the Bammer/GA game will get in. Even though Texas beat the Elephants.

    Remember, one loss Bammer "won" the NC the same year Ohio State was 12-0 but was being punished for shit 10 of those teams do constantly.


    Ohio State that year was kind of like Washington this year, except with a far weaker schedule, and certainly no win akin to Washington's win over Oregon.

    It's not clear if OSU or Alabama would have gotten into the title game if OSU had been eligible. Alabama was #2 in the final regular season AP Poll (OSU wasn't eligible for the coach's poll at all), but the AP voters might have been penalizing OSU for their NCAA “violations.”

    Of course, those "violations", which seemed like a big enough joke in the early 2010s, seem like an even bigger joke now.
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  • 46XiJCAB46XiJCAB Member Posts: 20,967
    Quackingduck said:

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Texas + Oregon winning= Oregon having 94% chance at playoff. The predictor predicts the SEC to probably completely get shut out of the playoffs in that scenario, with Texas having a 57% chance at the playoffs to Alabama's 43%

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Oklahoma State + Oregon= Oregon 98% chance at playoffs. Alabama has 88% chance at playoffs, and Ohio State has a 12% chance.


    I wish I was as confident as this playoff predictor is.

    https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

    After Oregon inserts the plunger for 4 quarters on Friday, they're in. Bama isn't beating UGA. FSU is going to lose to UL. Texas is gonna murder Okie St. tOSU got their mulligan when they lost to Michigan last year. It's not gonna happen two years running for them. They're out.

    UGA
    Michigan
    Oregon
    Texas
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  • haiehaie Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 21,999 Swaye's Wigwam
    46XiJCAB said:

    Quackingduck said:

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Texas + Oregon winning= Oregon having 94% chance at playoff. The predictor predicts the SEC to probably completely get shut out of the playoffs in that scenario, with Texas having a 57% chance at the playoffs to Alabama's 43%

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Oklahoma State + Oregon= Oregon 98% chance at playoffs. Alabama has 88% chance at playoffs, and Ohio State has a 12% chance.


    I wish I was as confident as this playoff predictor is.

    https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

    After Oregon inserts the plunger for 4 quarters on Friday, they're in. Bama isn't beating UGA. FSU is going to lose to UL. Texas is gonna murder Okie St. tOSU got their mulligan when they lost to Michigan last year. It's not gonna happen two years running for them. They're out.

    UGA
    Michigan
    Oregon
    Texas
    Profiles in Courage.
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  • SFGbobSFGbob Member Posts: 32,604
    haie said:

    46XiJCAB said:

    Quackingduck said:

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Texas + Oregon winning= Oregon having 94% chance at playoff. The predictor predicts the SEC to probably completely get shut out of the playoffs in that scenario, with Texas having a 57% chance at the playoffs to Alabama's 43%

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Oklahoma State + Oregon= Oregon 98% chance at playoffs. Alabama has 88% chance at playoffs, and Ohio State has a 12% chance.


    I wish I was as confident as this playoff predictor is.

    https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

    After Oregon inserts the plunger for 4 quarters on Friday, they're in. Bama isn't beating UGA. FSU is going to lose to UL. Texas is gonna murder Okie St. tOSU got their mulligan when they lost to Michigan last year. It's not gonna happen two years running for them. They're out.

    UGA
    Michigan
    Oregon
    Texas
    Profiles in Courage.
    A kunt that runs and hides from answering questions on an anonymous message board really shouldn't be questioning anyone's else's courage.
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  • 46XiJCAB46XiJCAB Member Posts: 20,967
    SFGbob said:

    haie said:

    46XiJCAB said:

    Quackingduck said:

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Texas + Oregon winning= Oregon having 94% chance at playoff. The predictor predicts the SEC to probably completely get shut out of the playoffs in that scenario, with Texas having a 57% chance at the playoffs to Alabama's 43%

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Oklahoma State + Oregon= Oregon 98% chance at playoffs. Alabama has 88% chance at playoffs, and Ohio State has a 12% chance.


    I wish I was as confident as this playoff predictor is.

    https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

    After Oregon inserts the plunger for 4 quarters on Friday, they're in. Bama isn't beating UGA. FSU is going to lose to UL. Texas is gonna murder Okie St. tOSU got their mulligan when they lost to Michigan last year. It's not gonna happen two years running for them. They're out.

    UGA
    Michigan
    Oregon
    Texas
    Profiles in Courage.
    A kunt that runs and hides from answering questions on an anonymous message board really shouldn't be questioning anyone's else's courage.
    I was here immediately after the game and in the game thread. What more needed to be said. uw won by 3, again. Hats off. Mission accomplished. One game season. Hang the banner. BONEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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  • haiehaie Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 21,999 Swaye's Wigwam
    SFGbob said:

    haie said:

    46XiJCAB said:

    Quackingduck said:

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Texas + Oregon winning= Oregon having 94% chance at playoff. The predictor predicts the SEC to probably completely get shut out of the playoffs in that scenario, with Texas having a 57% chance at the playoffs to Alabama's 43%

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Oklahoma State + Oregon= Oregon 98% chance at playoffs. Alabama has 88% chance at playoffs, and Ohio State has a 12% chance.


    I wish I was as confident as this playoff predictor is.

    https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

    After Oregon inserts the plunger for 4 quarters on Friday, they're in. Bama isn't beating UGA. FSU is going to lose to UL. Texas is gonna murder Okie St. tOSU got their mulligan when they lost to Michigan last year. It's not gonna happen two years running for them. They're out.

    UGA
    Michigan
    Oregon
    Texas
    Profiles in Courage.
    A kunt that runs and hides from answering questions on an anonymous message board really shouldn't be questioning anyone's else's courage.

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  • SFGbobSFGbob Member Posts: 32,604
    haie said:

    SFGbob said:

    haie said:

    46XiJCAB said:

    Quackingduck said:

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Texas + Oregon winning= Oregon having 94% chance at playoff. The predictor predicts the SEC to probably completely get shut out of the playoffs in that scenario, with Texas having a 57% chance at the playoffs to Alabama's 43%

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Oklahoma State + Oregon= Oregon 98% chance at playoffs. Alabama has 88% chance at playoffs, and Ohio State has a 12% chance.


    I wish I was as confident as this playoff predictor is.

    https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

    After Oregon inserts the plunger for 4 quarters on Friday, they're in. Bama isn't beating UGA. FSU is going to lose to UL. Texas is gonna murder Okie St. tOSU got their mulligan when they lost to Michigan last year. It's not gonna happen two years running for them. They're out.

    UGA
    Michigan
    Oregon
    Texas
    Profiles in Courage.
    A kunt that runs and hides from answering questions on an anonymous message board really shouldn't be questioning anyone's else's courage.

    Posting memes instead of simply answering the questions you were asked also qualifies as running and hiding like a bitch haie.
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  • haiehaie Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 21,999 Swaye's Wigwam
    SFGbob said:

    haie said:

    SFGbob said:

    haie said:

    46XiJCAB said:

    Quackingduck said:

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Texas + Oregon winning= Oregon having 94% chance at playoff. The predictor predicts the SEC to probably completely get shut out of the playoffs in that scenario, with Texas having a 57% chance at the playoffs to Alabama's 43%

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Oklahoma State + Oregon= Oregon 98% chance at playoffs. Alabama has 88% chance at playoffs, and Ohio State has a 12% chance.


    I wish I was as confident as this playoff predictor is.

    https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

    After Oregon inserts the plunger for 4 quarters on Friday, they're in. Bama isn't beating UGA. FSU is going to lose to UL. Texas is gonna murder Okie St. tOSU got their mulligan when they lost to Michigan last year. It's not gonna happen two years running for them. They're out.

    UGA
    Michigan
    Oregon
    Texas
    Profiles in Courage.
    A kunt that runs and hides from answering questions on an anonymous message board really shouldn't be questioning anyone's else's courage.

    Posting memes instead of simply answering the questions you were asked also qualifies as running and hiding like a bitch haie.

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  • 46XiJCAB46XiJCAB Member Posts: 20,967
    SFGbob said:

    haie said:

    SFGbob said:

    haie said:

    46XiJCAB said:

    Quackingduck said:

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Texas + Oregon winning= Oregon having 94% chance at playoff. The predictor predicts the SEC to probably completely get shut out of the playoffs in that scenario, with Texas having a 57% chance at the playoffs to Alabama's 43%

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Oklahoma State + Oregon= Oregon 98% chance at playoffs. Alabama has 88% chance at playoffs, and Ohio State has a 12% chance.


    I wish I was as confident as this playoff predictor is.

    https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

    After Oregon inserts the plunger for 4 quarters on Friday, they're in. Bama isn't beating UGA. FSU is going to lose to UL. Texas is gonna murder Okie St. tOSU got their mulligan when they lost to Michigan last year. It's not gonna happen two years running for them. They're out.

    UGA
    Michigan
    Oregon
    Texas
    Profiles in Courage.
    A kunt that runs and hides from answering questions on an anonymous message board really shouldn't be questioning anyone's else's courage.

    Posting memes instead of simply answering the questions you were asked also qualifies as running and hiding like a bitch haie.
    So childlike?
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  • haiehaie Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 21,999 Swaye's Wigwam
    46XiJCAB said:

    SFGbob said:

    haie said:

    SFGbob said:

    haie said:

    46XiJCAB said:

    Quackingduck said:

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Texas + Oregon winning= Oregon having 94% chance at playoff. The predictor predicts the SEC to probably completely get shut out of the playoffs in that scenario, with Texas having a 57% chance at the playoffs to Alabama's 43%

    Alabama + FSU + Michigan + Oklahoma State + Oregon= Oregon 98% chance at playoffs. Alabama has 88% chance at playoffs, and Ohio State has a 12% chance.


    I wish I was as confident as this playoff predictor is.

    https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

    After Oregon inserts the plunger for 4 quarters on Friday, they're in. Bama isn't beating UGA. FSU is going to lose to UL. Texas is gonna murder Okie St. tOSU got their mulligan when they lost to Michigan last year. It's not gonna happen two years running for them. They're out.

    UGA
    Michigan
    Oregon
    Texas
    Profiles in Courage.
    A kunt that runs and hides from answering questions on an anonymous message board really shouldn't be questioning anyone's else's courage.

    Posting memes instead of simply answering the questions you were asked also qualifies as running and hiding like a bitch haie.
    So childlike?
    You fled after Oregon lost and then showed back up days before the championship game after Oregon qualified to get back in.

    If that isn't childlike I don't know what is.
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