Welcome to the Hardcore Husky Forums. Folks who are well-known in Cyberland and not that dumb.
Oh the humanity!
Comments
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Just wait until China bubble really collapses. There's going to be bidding wars for things like spare engine parts like spark plugs. It's going to be a shit show.Bob_C said:
Prices and what makes sense is so out of whack in other stuff too. Just got back some shipping quotes to move 10 pallets of goods from Italy to the US. 2 day air shipping is cheaper than ocean. Have never seen that before, usually air is like 5-6x ocean. Economy is so strange, everything is weird.UW_Doog_Bot said:
It will be investors/sellers just like any commodity market once it starts to slip it will have to find bottom. First out wins.Bob_C said:
Sellers need prices to go up or stay relatively flat to justify trading into a higher rate mortgage and maintain a similar lifestyle. Buyers need them to go down to justify the current rates in monthly payments. Lack of economic mobility is a very bad thing when an economy is already stalled out. As @UW_Doog_Bot said in another thread recently, there's a complete mismatch in the market (also in other financial markets for similar reasons) and something will have to give.BleachedAnusDawg said:
You should take a look at your home price then versus today's dollars. The first home my parents bought for $165,000 in 1993 would be about $350,000 in 2023 dollars. Zillow says it's worth $1,042,000. 300% increase over 30 years doesn't seem very normal or healthy. That's 10% a year, on average, with the bulk of it coming over the past 6-7 years.HHusky said:
In fact, those two conditions cannot co-exist for very long.Sources said:
Great, and what was the cost of that home? It doesn't work when home prices are incredibly inflated and rates are skyrocketingHHusky said:
10.25% was an issue when I bought my first home too.thechatch said:
You’re such a dishonest little shit. Look at the median cost of a home.HHusky said:
Mortgage rates can go all the way to 7?!?!Bob_C said:
Only worth like $1000/month to the buyer on a $400k mortgage. No biggie.HHusky said:
Oh no!Fire_Marshall_Bill said:Mortgage rates are over 7. Not that long ago they were 3.5 or something. Winning!
Over 7%!!!
unprecedented
if you're under 30
I realize you don’t give a fuck because at 65 or whatever you’re across the finish line on your home loan, but this is a huge problem for people in their 20s and 30s wanting to own their own house.
But keep up with the snark and glib replies that always fall flat. Even the dummies on this board see right through your bullshit.
You seem to ignore the fact that sellers are also impacted by rising rates.
But rates at 3 - 4% was always going to be the aberration.
If you think the macroeconomic climate is remotely comparable to whenever you were young, you're as addled as Biden
I bought into the year 1990's "incredibly inflated" home values and paid 10.25% for the loan. The price then seemed just as absurd then as prices do now and within the year there was a "correction". And interest rates came all the way down to 6 - 7% too by 1993.
Nothing new under the sun.
I don't think you're very aware of just how short on supply the housing market is, nor the other external factors present today which were not around in 1993. In the example above, the house would have to lose half of its value to become close to "affordable" for the average household in Snohomish County with where rates are right now.
There's something like 14 million investor owned vacant homes. Why hold real estate when a bond will make a better return? Even a 5% divestment of that stock would crash the shit out of the market.
That plus a credit crunch and maybe deflation, capital destruction? Idk we are sailing into new and dangerous waters similar to when stagflation first happened and we needed new models to explain it.
But hey guys! Inflation is now only 3.9%! -
Where'd the economic genius go? Piss Boy working overtime?UW_Doog_Bot said:
Just wait until China bubble really collapses. There's going to be bidding wars for things like spare engine parts like spark plugs. It's going to be a shit show.Bob_C said:
Prices and what makes sense is so out of whack in other stuff too. Just got back some shipping quotes to move 10 pallets of goods from Italy to the US. 2 day air shipping is cheaper than ocean. Have never seen that before, usually air is like 5-6x ocean. Economy is so strange, everything is weird.UW_Doog_Bot said:
It will be investors/sellers just like any commodity market once it starts to slip it will have to find bottom. First out wins.Bob_C said:
Sellers need prices to go up or stay relatively flat to justify trading into a higher rate mortgage and maintain a similar lifestyle. Buyers need them to go down to justify the current rates in monthly payments. Lack of economic mobility is a very bad thing when an economy is already stalled out. As @UW_Doog_Bot said in another thread recently, there's a complete mismatch in the market (also in other financial markets for similar reasons) and something will have to give.BleachedAnusDawg said:
You should take a look at your home price then versus today's dollars. The first home my parents bought for $165,000 in 1993 would be about $350,000 in 2023 dollars. Zillow says it's worth $1,042,000. 300% increase over 30 years doesn't seem very normal or healthy. That's 10% a year, on average, with the bulk of it coming over the past 6-7 years.HHusky said:
In fact, those two conditions cannot co-exist for very long.Sources said:
Great, and what was the cost of that home? It doesn't work when home prices are incredibly inflated and rates are skyrocketingHHusky said:
10.25% was an issue when I bought my first home too.thechatch said:
You’re such a dishonest little shit. Look at the median cost of a home.HHusky said:
Mortgage rates can go all the way to 7?!?!Bob_C said:
Only worth like $1000/month to the buyer on a $400k mortgage. No biggie.HHusky said:
Oh no!Fire_Marshall_Bill said:Mortgage rates are over 7. Not that long ago they were 3.5 or something. Winning!
Over 7%!!!
unprecedented
if you're under 30
I realize you don’t give a fuck because at 65 or whatever you’re across the finish line on your home loan, but this is a huge problem for people in their 20s and 30s wanting to own their own house.
But keep up with the snark and glib replies that always fall flat. Even the dummies on this board see right through your bullshit.
You seem to ignore the fact that sellers are also impacted by rising rates.
But rates at 3 - 4% was always going to be the aberration.
If you think the macroeconomic climate is remotely comparable to whenever you were young, you're as addled as Biden
I bought into the year 1990's "incredibly inflated" home values and paid 10.25% for the loan. The price then seemed just as absurd then as prices do now and within the year there was a "correction". And interest rates came all the way down to 6 - 7% too by 1993.
Nothing new under the sun.
I don't think you're very aware of just how short on supply the housing market is, nor the other external factors present today which were not around in 1993. In the example above, the house would have to lose half of its value to become close to "affordable" for the average household in Snohomish County with where rates are right now.
There's something like 14 million investor owned vacant homes. Why hold real estate when a bond will make a better return? Even a 5% divestment of that stock would crash the shit out of the market.
That plus a credit crunch and maybe deflation, capital destruction? Idk we are sailing into new and dangerous waters similar to when stagflation first happened and we needed new models to explain it.
But hey guys! Inflation is now only 3.9%! -
RoadTrip said:
Where'd the economic genius go? Piss Boy working overtime?UW_Doog_Bot said:
Just wait until China bubble really collapses. There's going to be bidding wars for things like spare engine parts like spark plugs. It's going to be a shit show.Bob_C said:
Prices and what makes sense is so out of whack in other stuff too. Just got back some shipping quotes to move 10 pallets of goods from Italy to the US. 2 day air shipping is cheaper than ocean. Have never seen that before, usually air is like 5-6x ocean. Economy is so strange, everything is weird.UW_Doog_Bot said:
It will be investors/sellers just like any commodity market once it starts to slip it will have to find bottom. First out wins.Bob_C said:
Sellers need prices to go up or stay relatively flat to justify trading into a higher rate mortgage and maintain a similar lifestyle. Buyers need them to go down to justify the current rates in monthly payments. Lack of economic mobility is a very bad thing when an economy is already stalled out. As @UW_Doog_Bot said in another thread recently, there's a complete mismatch in the market (also in other financial markets for similar reasons) and something will have to give.BleachedAnusDawg said:
You should take a look at your home price then versus today's dollars. The first home my parents bought for $165,000 in 1993 would be about $350,000 in 2023 dollars. Zillow says it's worth $1,042,000. 300% increase over 30 years doesn't seem very normal or healthy. That's 10% a year, on average, with the bulk of it coming over the past 6-7 years.HHusky said:
In fact, those two conditions cannot co-exist for very long.Sources said:
Great, and what was the cost of that home? It doesn't work when home prices are incredibly inflated and rates are skyrocketingHHusky said:
10.25% was an issue when I bought my first home too.thechatch said:
You’re such a dishonest little shit. Look at the median cost of a home.HHusky said:
Mortgage rates can go all the way to 7?!?!Bob_C said:
Only worth like $1000/month to the buyer on a $400k mortgage. No biggie.HHusky said:
Oh no!Fire_Marshall_Bill said:Mortgage rates are over 7. Not that long ago they were 3.5 or something. Winning!
Over 7%!!!
unprecedented
if you're under 30
I realize you don’t give a fuck because at 65 or whatever you’re across the finish line on your home loan, but this is a huge problem for people in their 20s and 30s wanting to own their own house.
But keep up with the snark and glib replies that always fall flat. Even the dummies on this board see right through your bullshit.
You seem to ignore the fact that sellers are also impacted by rising rates.
But rates at 3 - 4% was always going to be the aberration.
If you think the macroeconomic climate is remotely comparable to whenever you were young, you're as addled as Biden
I bought into the year 1990's "incredibly inflated" home values and paid 10.25% for the loan. The price then seemed just as absurd then as prices do now and within the year there was a "correction". And interest rates came all the way down to 6 - 7% too by 1993.
Nothing new under the sun.
I don't think you're very aware of just how short on supply the housing market is, nor the other external factors present today which were not around in 1993. In the example above, the house would have to lose half of its value to become close to "affordable" for the average household in Snohomish County with where rates are right now.
There's something like 14 million investor owned vacant homes. Why hold real estate when a bond will make a better return? Even a 5% divestment of that stock would crash the shit out of the market.
That plus a credit crunch and maybe deflation, capital destruction? Idk we are sailing into new and dangerous waters similar to when stagflation first happened and we needed new models to explain it.
But hey guys! Inflation is now only 3.9%!
@HHusky why don't you want to talk about how great 3.9% inflation is? -
Math, it's hard. -
Thanks Captain Obvious!UW_Doog_Bot said:
Math, it's hard. -
I felt you needed a hand explaining why cumulative inflation is different from the current rate.HHusky said:
Thanks Captain Obvious!UW_Doog_Bot said:
Math, it's hard.
Do elaborate on your op for us though. I'm giddy with anticipation. -
Golly! It's like compounding interest! You're quite the insightful bastard, aren't you?UW_Doog_Bot said:
I felt you needed a hand explaining why cumulative inflation is different from the current rate.HHusky said:
Thanks Captain Obvious!UW_Doog_Bot said:
Math, it's hard.
Do elaborate on your op for us though. I'm giddy with anticipation. -
Still, seems like a hard concept for you to grasp.HHusky said:
Golly! It's like compounding interest! You're quite the insightful bastard, aren't you?UW_Doog_Bot said:
I felt you needed a hand explaining why cumulative inflation is different from the current rate.HHusky said:
Thanks Captain Obvious!UW_Doog_Bot said:
Math, it's hard.
Do elaborate on your op for us though. I'm giddy with anticipation.
Please, whenever you're ready, expand on the op.
