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PGOS "guarantees" of the week - Vol. 4
PostGameOrangeSlices
Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 26,151 
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
I got stoned and forgot to poast what the analyst team came up with. But fear not, PGOS was still in the green on his wagers. My lawyers did enjoy the week off.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
South Carolina (+8) @ Florida - South Carolina is somehow putting together a decent season. They are 5-1 in their last 6 games, including a great win @ Kentucky. Florida is decent, but inconsistent. I don't really know who wins and Florida is at home, but my entire betting philosophy is about looking at money lines and saying "what if". You don't have to even go .500 to make money with picks, probably closer to .350...Cocks are +260 underdogs which seems a little stiff.
#4 TCU (+7) @ #18 (el oh el) Texas - Sonny Dykes of all people is undefeated at TCU. There have been some close games, but this team is actually good and has an awesome QB. Sark is Sark, and while it wouldn't be crazy for him to get the win at home...TCU is a ridiculous +230 on the moneyline as the #4 team in the CFP. Doesn't make much sense, and this is your esteemed CapriSun Lock of the Week. Perhaps Mr. MBA himself can chime in? @Tequilla
#25 Washington (+13) @ #6 Oregon - I know what you are thinking..."doog"...and while that is definitely true, hear me out. Our fightin' DAWGS are a +360 underdog, DeBoner almost won last year in Autzen with a midget UW reject, and Bo Nix is gonna regress at some point. Might as well be this week. I like the +360 line but don't throw the farm at it. $50 or so to make $180 in profit is decent.
There are some interesting pro lines this week:
San Diego Anaheim Chargers (+7) @ San Francisco Santa Clara - The Chargers kind of suck - don't twist. They are the most injured team in football and when they win, they barely win. But...they are still finding a way to be 5-3 and always seem to have a punchers chance. The 49ers are okay, maybe even "good" until McCaffery inevitably gets hurt, but the Chargers being a +255 moneyline underdog seems off. I like @YellowSnow's Boltz in this one.
Seattle (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay - Fun fact - if the Hawks win at 2am on Sunday then they will be the only NFL team with a winning record against Tom Brady. The Buccs suck, Brady finally looks 45, and the Hooks are playing with their hair on fire on both offense and defense. Geno threw a pick six last week, then proceeded to get TDs on 3 straight drives. I have made money betting on the Seahawks 4 out of the last 5 weeks. The only game I didn't touch was the Giants game as they were favored and I didn't like the line. +125 seems like a no brainer here.
Thanks for reading.
I got stoned and forgot to poast what the analyst team came up with. But fear not, PGOS was still in the green on his wagers. My lawyers did enjoy the week off.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
South Carolina (+8) @ Florida - South Carolina is somehow putting together a decent season. They are 5-1 in their last 6 games, including a great win @ Kentucky. Florida is decent, but inconsistent. I don't really know who wins and Florida is at home, but my entire betting philosophy is about looking at money lines and saying "what if". You don't have to even go .500 to make money with picks, probably closer to .350...Cocks are +260 underdogs which seems a little stiff.
#4 TCU (+7) @ #18 (el oh el) Texas - Sonny Dykes of all people is undefeated at TCU. There have been some close games, but this team is actually good and has an awesome QB. Sark is Sark, and while it wouldn't be crazy for him to get the win at home...TCU is a ridiculous +230 on the moneyline as the #4 team in the CFP. Doesn't make much sense, and this is your esteemed CapriSun Lock of the Week. Perhaps Mr. MBA himself can chime in? @Tequilla
#25 Washington (+13) @ #6 Oregon - I know what you are thinking..."doog"...and while that is definitely true, hear me out. Our fightin' DAWGS are a +360 underdog, DeBoner almost won last year in Autzen with a midget UW reject, and Bo Nix is gonna regress at some point. Might as well be this week. I like the +360 line but don't throw the farm at it. $50 or so to make $180 in profit is decent.
There are some interesting pro lines this week:
Seattle (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay - Fun fact - if the Hawks win at 2am on Sunday then they will be the only NFL team with a winning record against Tom Brady. The Buccs suck, Brady finally looks 45, and the Hooks are playing with their hair on fire on both offense and defense. Geno threw a pick six last week, then proceeded to get TDs on 3 straight drives. I have made money betting on the Seahawks 4 out of the last 5 weeks. The only game I didn't touch was the Giants game as they were favored and I didn't like the line. +125 seems like a no brainer here.
Thanks for reading.
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Comments
The logic with Texas is that the metrics love them and that TCU has to lose at some point … that logic is foolish to me on a number of fronts.
TCU was bound for a let down and had one last week against Tech before playing a solid 4th to win going away. Also important to note that TCUs top WR basically didn’t play in the game because of his ankle (which I think was more a sign of precaution) … if he’s anywhere close to normal that changes the entire offense.
I’d definitely jump on the +7 and even see if the public money on Texas pushes to +7.5
Seahawks then Brazil GP.
Also alerting @MikeSeaver for the counter-jinx move.