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Figured out what's going on at the Fed

creepycoug
creepycoug Member Posts: 24,282
edited September 2022 in Tug Tavern


@HoustonHusky

@UW_Doog_Bot

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  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,282
    edited September 2022
    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    The fed is going to continue to raise rates to stop inflation and because "employment numbers are great" in a classic delusion of soft landing.

    Then the economy will begin to crash, they will make a surprised pikachu face, and pivot to try to recover.



    But it's going to be too late.

    Take all the screenshots you need.

    All this because they let one Cuog in the club.

    @Salemcoogredux

    The good news is that CDs may soon be a viable retirement vehicle.

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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,553 Founders Club
    creepycoug said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    The fed is going to continue to raise rates to stop inflation and because "employment numbers are great" in a classic delusion of soft landing.

    Then the economy will begin to crash, they will make a surprised pikachu face, and pivot to try to recover.



    But it's going to be too late.

    Take all the screenshots you need.

    All this because they let one Cuog in the club.

    @Salemcoogredux

    The good news is that CDs may soon be a viable retirement vehicle.

    Going to be a great time to be cash heavy and ready to buy so long as you haven't already been buying into the dip like H.

    I tell my friends looking at retirement to look at where they might want a vacation home.

    Personally, I'm looking at land where I want to move my family to.

    But yes, CD's are going to hit at least 5%+ which should be good enough for retirement if the FED kills inflation.
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  • creepycoug
    creepycoug Member Posts: 24,282
    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    creepycoug said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    The fed is going to continue to raise rates to stop inflation and because "employment numbers are great" in a classic delusion of soft landing.

    Then the economy will begin to crash, they will make a surprised pikachu face, and pivot to try to recover.



    But it's going to be too late.

    Take all the screenshots you need.

    All this because they let one Cuog in the club.

    @Salemcoogredux

    The good news is that CDs may soon be a viable retirement vehicle.

    Going to be a great time to be cash heavy and ready to buy so long as you haven't already been buying into the dip like H.

    I tell my friends looking at retirement to look at where they might want a vacation home.

    Personally, I'm looking at land where I want to move my family to.

    But yes, CD's are going to hit at least 5%+ which should be good enough for retirement if the FED kills inflation.
    Is the theory on second home / land based on a price crash? Can't finance a significant balance right now. I wonder how this will affect new builds. I have the land and was close to pulling the trigger on building before this happened. OTOH, builders will be easier to find and negotiate with. The prevailing attitude to date has been, "why should I build your house?" That will change soon.

    Been sitting on cash and didn't buy the dip fortunately.
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,553 Founders Club
    creepycoug said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    creepycoug said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    The fed is going to continue to raise rates to stop inflation and because "employment numbers are great" in a classic delusion of soft landing.

    Then the economy will begin to crash, they will make a surprised pikachu face, and pivot to try to recover.



    But it's going to be too late.

    Take all the screenshots you need.

    All this because they let one Cuog in the club.

    @Salemcoogredux

    The good news is that CDs may soon be a viable retirement vehicle.

    Going to be a great time to be cash heavy and ready to buy so long as you haven't already been buying into the dip like H.

    I tell my friends looking at retirement to look at where they might want a vacation home.

    Personally, I'm looking at land where I want to move my family to.

    But yes, CD's are going to hit at least 5%+ which should be good enough for retirement if the FED kills inflation.
    Is the theory on second home / land based on a price crash? Can't finance a significant balance right now. I wonder how this will affect new builds. I have the land and was close to pulling the trigger on building before this happened. OTOH, builders will be easier to find and negotiate with. The prevailing attitude to date has been, "why should I build your house?" That will change soon.

    Been sitting on cash and didn't buy the dip fortunately.
    Rates are going to go high and there's going to be a yuge glut of inventory(nationally) with a ton of builds in progress that have no buyers waiting on the other side. That's going to make buyers desperate for liquidity in an environment where credit is tightening. It's also going to crash the speculative land markets quickly(hence I will swoop). Plenty of building commodities are already coming back down to earth as well. In a year or two when builders are hungry I'll probably build.

    It will be a regional housing price crash IMO. Places that are easy to build out and have rushed to do so with inter-state migration. Boise, Vegas, Phoenix, Nashville, West Texas etc. The trouble is they thought it would continue that way forever. They always do.

    Places like Cali (or Washington) haven't really built since the last crash *overall. Not enough demand, too many restrictions, NIMBY-ism. No one wants to live in LA but the OC market is still relatively hot with sellers still able to take best offer and sell places "as is" etc.

    It won't be a good time to finance a yuge new house even if that house is cheap BUT vacation homes are almost always some of the first things to crash in these circumstances and often you don't need financing to purchase or can do so through existing equity.
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  • CFetters_Nacho_Lover
    CFetters_Nacho_Lover Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 32,750 Founders Club
    YellowSnow said:

    Is my board the new finance board or something @creepycoug ?

    STSTTT
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  • BleachedAnusDawg
    BleachedAnusDawg Member Posts: 13,739 Standard Supporter
    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    The fed is going to continue to raise rates to stop inflation and because "employment numbers are great" in a classic delusion of soft landing.

    Then the economy will begin to crash, they will make a surprised pikachu face, and pivot to try to recover.



    But it's going to be too late.

    Take all the screenshots you need.

    Yep. All we need to do is allow domestic energy production and half or more of the inflation problems goes away without jacking rates and forcing people in to poverty.
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  • PurpleThrobber
    PurpleThrobber Member Posts: 48,545 Standard Supporter
    edited September 2022
    BleachedAnusDawg said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    The fed is going to continue to raise rates to stop inflation and because "employment numbers are great" in a classic delusion of soft landing.

    Then the economy will begin to crash, they will make a surprised pikachu face, and pivot to try to recover.



    But it's going to be too late.

    Take all the screenshots you need.

    Yep. All we need to do is allow domestic energy production and half or more of the inflation problems goes away without jacking rates and forcing people in to poverty.
    And quit fighting/funding endless proxy wars in foreign lands in which we have no reason to be involved.

    I ain't got no quarrel with the Viet Cong.
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