I have an unbiased 6-sided die. I say there's a 33% chance that a 1 or a 2 comes up when I roll it. A 1 or a 2 comes up. You: "durrrrrrrrrrrrr" (View Post)
Yeah. What's the problem? Even Trump's camp didn't think they were favorites to win. 538 gave Trump a better chance of winning than pretty much every polls-based website out there and also better tha… (View Post)
You have a really poor grasp on how probabilities work, particularly when it comes to events that have a high degree of correlation, i.e. non-independent events. And he did change his model to reflec… (View Post)