Some math shit about recruiting

He started to lose me at

[The correlation between the 2-year recruiting rankings I used for 2018 S&P+ projections and the current year-end 2018 S&P+ rankings was a solid 0.609. That’s a strong correlation, and it’s why I use recruiting rankings in my projections.]

That's not that solid of a correlation. It's the type of correlation that someone that's used to seeing high-variance data jumps at but it's not all that meaningful when considering countable data.

I'd call that a moderate positive relationship. It's also super highly susceptible to another confounding variable. i.e. good coaches tend to attract good recruits and tend to perform better in S&P while the inverse is also true.

If you tested this against the 20% of winning-est coaches you'd probably find a much stronger causal relationship. Surprise! Good coaches win and have good S&P and attract good recruits!

This is where he completely lost me.

[The correlation between these new Pareto recruiting rankings and 2018 S&P+: 0.640. Better.]

Difference of .031 of .609 on an already moderate correlation? Probably statistically meaningless.

All of that said, Thanks for the FREE PUB!