They have pretty much zero chance. Michigan, Ohio State (play each other, winner goes) is ahead of them. Notre Dame (unless they lose to USC El oh el). Georgia.
If you actually look at the source you would see that 538 has all those teams ahead of WSU along with Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Clemson.
You're just underestimating the number of losses still potentially out there the next two weeks plus championship games.
For example Notre Dame is about 25% to lose at home to Syracuse this Saturday. I estimate a similar line for next week @USC maybe slightly higher chances for USC. So Notre Dame is around 45% to lose a game. They probably aren't getting in over 12-1 WSU at 11-1 with no conference championship game and their shit schedule (unlucky that FSU, Stanford, and USC all suck this year.)
That would be real interesting. One loss Notre Dame or one loss WSU. They could have the same loss or ND could have a win over USC who beat WSU which would give ESPN the cover they need to get Notre Dame in there
I think the committee gives credit to a ND schedule despite the perfect storm of shittiness those teams were this year. WSU didn't even try.
Agree. One loss ND is getting in over one loss WSU almost assuredly. ND has the Michigan win, WSU doesn't have anything close to that and isn't going to have the chance to add anything like it. The committee stresses over and over it's about who you beat more than anything else. Hypothetical one loss ND's wins are going to look better than hypothetical one loss WSU's.
I don't know about that. If ND loses @USC they would have the same loss. ND would have the best win but WSU would have the second through fifth best wins. And the only two wins of note that weren't at home.
Despite their affiliation with the ACC and 5 game quasi-conferemce schedule Notre Dame faced just ONE of the top SEVEN ACC teams- and that game was at hime.
vs. Michigan (Sagarin #3) ND vs. UW (#10) WSU @Stanford (#22) WSU Neutral Utah (#14) WSU vs. Utah (#14) WSU vs. Stanford (#22) ND @Northwestern (#33) ND vs. Syracuse (#34) ND @Colorado(#62) WSU @VTech (#63) ND @Wake (#73) ND vs. Pitt (#42) ND vs. Oregon (#44) WSU vs. Arizona (#55) WSU vs. Cal (#56) WSU vs. FSU (#65) ND vs. Vanderbilt (#66) ND @Wyoming (#100) WSU vs. EWash (#80) WSU @Navy (#110) ND @OSU (#116) WSU vs. Ball State (#137) ND vs. SJSU (#158) WSU
Why use Sagarin when you can use the playoff committees actual rankings at least for the top 25? I get using Sagarin as a proxy for what the playoff committee doesn't rank but the committee sees things fairly different from Sagarin (Sagarin is superior IMO but that's a different argument).
ND 4 - Michigan 12 - Syracuse @sure to drop in this case) 22 - @ Northwestern
WSU 18 - Washington (sure to drop in this case) 19 - Utah (neutral)
WSU's mid tier wins might be better but by the committee rankings ND has wins 1 and 2 and the best true road win. Now Syracuse could drop below Utah I suppose but they're not dropping below UW so at best WSU has wins 2 and 5 while ND gets wins 1, 3 and 4.
Not sure why you're using Sagarin but it's a very flawed process if you're trying to predict what the committee going to do IMO.
Accidentally deleted my post while editing but you caught it.
I get your point but the committee's rankings fluctuate wildly and I think today's Sagarin ratings are a better approximation of the final committee rankings than today's committee rankings.
I guess Northwestern's final two or three games would be crucial as well as Syracuse @ BC.
They have pretty much zero chance. Michigan, Ohio State (play each other, winner goes) is ahead of them. Notre Dame (unless they lose to USC El oh el). Georgia.
If you actually look at the source you would see that 538 has all those teams ahead of WSU along with Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Clemson.
You're just underestimating the number of losses still potentially out there the next two weeks plus championship games.
For example Notre Dame is about 25% to lose at home to Syracuse this Saturday. I estimate a similar line for next week @USC maybe slightly higher chances for USC. So Notre Dame is around 45% to lose a game. They probably aren't getting in over 12-1 WSU at 11-1 with no conference championship game and their shit schedule (unlucky that FSU, Stanford, and USC all suck this year.)
That would be real interesting. One loss Notre Dame or one loss WSU. They could have the same loss or ND could have a win over USC who beat WSU which would give ESPN the cover they need to get Notre Dame in there
I think the committee gives credit to a ND schedule despite the perfect storm of shittiness those teams were this year. WSU didn't even try.
Agree. One loss ND is getting in over one loss WSU almost assuredly. ND has the Michigan win, WSU doesn't have anything close to that and isn't going to have the chance to add anything like it. The committee stresses over and over it's about who you beat more than anything else. Hypothetical one loss ND's wins are going to look better than hypothetical one loss WSU's.
I don't know about that. If ND loses @USC they would have the same loss. ND would have the best win but WSU would have the second through fifth best wins. And the only two wins of note that weren't at home.
Despite their affiliation with the ACC and 5 game quasi-conferemce schedule Notre Dame faced just ONE of the top SEVEN ACC teams- and that game was at hime.
vs. Michigan (Sagarin #3) ND vs. UW (#10) WSU @Stanford (#22) WSU Neutral Utah (#14) WSU vs. Utah (#14) WSU vs. Stanford (#22) ND @Northwestern (#33) ND vs. Syracuse (#34) ND @Colorado(#62) WSU @VTech (#63) ND @Wake (#73) ND vs. Pitt (#42) ND vs. Oregon (#44) WSU vs. Arizona (#55) WSU vs. Cal (#56) WSU vs. FSU (#65) ND vs. Vanderbilt (#66) ND @Wyoming (#100) WSU vs. EWash (#80) WSU @Navy (#110) ND @OSU (#116) WSU vs. Ball State (#137) ND vs. SJSU (#158) WSU
Why use Sagarin when you can use the playoff committees actual rankings at least for the top 25? I get using Sagarin as a proxy for what the playoff committee doesn't rank but the committee sees things fairly different from Sagarin (Sagarin is superior IMO but that's a different argument).
ND 4 - Michigan 12 - Syracuse @sure to drop in this case) 22 - @ Northwestern
WSU 18 - Washington (sure to drop in this case) 19 - Utah (neutral)
WSU's mid tier wins might be better but by the committee rankings ND has wins 1 and 2 and the best true road win. Now Syracuse could drop below Utah I suppose but they're not dropping below UW so at best WSU has wins 2 and 5 while ND gets wins 1, 3 and 4.
Not sure why you're using Sagarin but it's a very flawed process if you're trying to predict what the committee going to do IMO.
Accidentally deleted my post while editing but you caught it.
I get your point but the committee's rankings fluctuate wildly and I think today's Sagarin ratings are a better approximation of the final committee rankings than today's committee rankings.
I guess Northwestern's final two or three games would be crucial as well as Syracuse @ BC.
That seems highly unlikely to me but we'll see.
Well the committe significantly overrated Syracuse and Northwestern and underrated UW.
Northwestern likely to go 1-2 or worse and Syracuse likely to go 0-2. UW should be favored @WSU but of course we are discussing the scenario where WSU wins.
They have pretty much zero chance. Michigan, Ohio State (play each other, winner goes) is ahead of them. Notre Dame (unless they lose to USC El oh el). Georgia.
If you actually look at the source you would see that 538 has all those teams ahead of WSU along with Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Clemson.
You're just underestimating the number of losses still potentially out there the next two weeks plus championship games.
For example Notre Dame is about 25% to lose at home to Syracuse this Saturday. I estimate a similar line for next week @USC maybe slightly higher chances for USC. So Notre Dame is around 45% to lose a game. They probably aren't getting in over 12-1 WSU at 11-1 with no conference championship game and their shit schedule (unlucky that FSU, Stanford, and USC all suck this year.)
That would be real interesting. One loss Notre Dame or one loss WSU. They could have the same loss or ND could have a win over USC who beat WSU which would give ESPN the cover they need to get Notre Dame in there
I think the committee gives credit to a ND schedule despite the perfect storm of shittiness those teams were this year. WSU didn't even try.
Agree. One loss ND is getting in over one loss WSU almost assuredly. ND has the Michigan win, WSU doesn't have anything close to that and isn't going to have the chance to add anything like it. The committee stresses over and over it's about who you beat more than anything else. Hypothetical one loss ND's wins are going to look better than hypothetical one loss WSU's.
I don't know about that. If ND loses @USC they would have the same loss. ND would have the best win but WSU would have the second through fifth best wins. And the only two wins of note that weren't at home.
Despite their affiliation with the ACC and 5 game quasi-conferemce schedule Notre Dame faced just ONE of the top SEVEN ACC teams- and that game was at hime.
vs. Michigan (Sagarin #3) ND vs. UW (#10) WSU @Stanford (#22) WSU Neutral Utah (#14) WSU vs. Utah (#14) WSU vs. Stanford (#22) ND @Northwestern (#33) ND vs. Syracuse (#34) ND @Colorado(#62) WSU @VTech (#63) ND @Wake (#73) ND vs. Pitt (#42) ND vs. Oregon (#44) WSU vs. Arizona (#55) WSU vs. Cal (#56) WSU vs. FSU (#65) ND vs. Vanderbilt (#66) ND @Wyoming (#100) WSU vs. EWash (#80) WSU @Navy (#110) ND @OSU (#116) WSU vs. Ball State (#137) ND vs. SJSU (#158) WSU
Why use Sagarin when you can use the playoff committees actual rankings at least for the top 25? I get using Sagarin as a proxy for what the playoff committee doesn't rank but the committee sees things fairly different from Sagarin (Sagarin is superior IMO but that's a different argument).
ND 4 - Michigan 12 - Syracuse @sure to drop in this case) 22 - @ Northwestern
WSU 18 - Washington (sure to drop in this case) 19 - Utah (neutral)
WSU's mid tier wins might be better but by the committee rankings ND has wins 1 and 2 and the best true road win. Now Syracuse could drop below Utah I suppose but they're not dropping below UW so at best WSU has wins 2 and 5 while ND gets wins 1, 3 and 4.
Not sure why you're using Sagarin but it's a very flawed process if you're trying to predict what the committee going to do IMO.
Accidentally deleted my post while editing but you caught it.
I get your point but the committee's rankings fluctuate wildly and I think today's Sagarin ratings are a better approximation of the final committee rankings than today's committee rankings.
I guess Northwestern's final two or three games would be crucial as well as Syracuse @ BC.
That seems highly unlikely to me but we'll see.
Well the committe significantly overrated Syracuse and Northwestern and underrated UW.
Northwestern likely to go 1-2 or worse and Syracuse likely to go 0-2. UW should be favored @WSUbut of course we are discussing the scenario where WSU wins.
Exactly. If the committee is underrating UW (and I think they are though not as badly as Sagarin does), an Apple Cup loss to Cuog isn't going to correct that. There's very little way the committee sees a win over UW as significant, which means WSU's best hope is Utah, which means WSU is screwed.
They have pretty much zero chance. Michigan, Ohio State (play each other, winner goes) is ahead of them. Notre Dame (unless they lose to USC El oh el). Georgia.
If you actually look at the source you would see that 538 has all those teams ahead of WSU along with Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Clemson.
You're just underestimating the number of losses still potentially out there the next two weeks plus championship games.
For example Notre Dame is about 25% to lose at home to Syracuse this Saturday. I estimate a similar line for next week @USC maybe slightly higher chances for USC. So Notre Dame is around 45% to lose a game. They probably aren't getting in over 12-1 WSU at 11-1 with no conference championship game and their shit schedule (unlucky that FSU, Stanford, and USC all suck this year.)
That would be real interesting. One loss Notre Dame or one loss WSU. They could have the same loss or ND could have a win over USC who beat WSU which would give ESPN the cover they need to get Notre Dame in there
I think the committee gives credit to a ND schedule despite the perfect storm of shittiness those teams were this year. WSU didn't even try.
Agree. One loss ND is getting in over one loss WSU almost assuredly. ND has the Michigan win, WSU doesn't have anything close to that and isn't going to have the chance to add anything like it. The committee stresses over and over it's about who you beat more than anything else. Hypothetical one loss ND's wins are going to look better than hypothetical one loss WSU's.
I don't know about that. If ND loses @USC they would have the same loss. ND would have the best win but WSU would have the second through fifth best wins. And the only two wins of note that weren't at home.
Despite their affiliation with the ACC and 5 game quasi-conferemce schedule Notre Dame faced just ONE of the top SEVEN ACC teams- and that game was at hime.
vs. Michigan (Sagarin #3) ND vs. UW (#10) WSU @Stanford (#22) WSU Neutral Utah (#14) WSU vs. Utah (#14) WSU vs. Stanford (#22) ND @Northwestern (#33) ND vs. Syracuse (#34) ND @Colorado(#62) WSU @VTech (#63) ND @Wake (#73) ND vs. Pitt (#42) ND vs. Oregon (#44) WSU vs. Arizona (#55) WSU vs. Cal (#56) WSU vs. FSU (#65) ND vs. Vanderbilt (#66) ND @Wyoming (#100) WSU vs. EWash (#80) WSU @Navy (#110) ND @OSU (#116) WSU vs. Ball State (#137) ND vs. SJSU (#158) WSU
Why use Sagarin when you can use the playoff committees actual rankings at least for the top 25? I get using Sagarin as a proxy for what the playoff committee doesn't rank but the committee sees things fairly different from Sagarin (Sagarin is superior IMO but that's a different argument).
ND 4 - Michigan 12 - Syracuse @sure to drop in this case) 22 - @ Northwestern
WSU 18 - Washington (sure to drop in this case) 19 - Utah (neutral)
WSU's mid tier wins might be better but by the committee rankings ND has wins 1 and 2 and the best true road win. Now Syracuse could drop below Utah I suppose but they're not dropping below UW so at best WSU has wins 2 and 5 while ND gets wins 1, 3 and 4.
Not sure why you're using Sagarin but it's a very flawed process if you're trying to predict what the committee going to do IMO.
Accidentally deleted my post while editing but you caught it.
I get your point but the committee's rankings fluctuate wildly and I think today's Sagarin ratings are a better approximation of the final committee rankings than today's committee rankings.
I guess Northwestern's final two or three games would be crucial as well as Syracuse @ BC.
That seems highly unlikely to me but we'll see.
Well the committe significantly overrated Syracuse and Northwestern and underrated UW.
Northwestern likely to go 1-2 or worse and Syracuse likely to go 0-2. UW should be favored @WSU but of course we are discussing the scenario where WSU wins.
No, I was making fun of myself. I made a great joke making fun of Browning, but thought I was in the game thread. By the time I realized it, the window of opportunity had closed. Sad!
Comments
Northwestern likely to go 1-2 or worse and Syracuse likely to go 0-2. UW should be favored @WSU but of course we are discussing the scenario where WSU wins.
ND beatng Cuse comvinvingly.
WSU ain’t getting in.