NOC
They have pretty much zero chance. Michigan, Ohio State (play each other, winner goes) is ahead of them. Notre Dame (unless they lose to USC El oh el). Georgia.
They have pretty much zero chance. Michigan, Ohio State (play each other, winner goes) is ahead of them. Notre Dame (unless they lose to USC El oh el). Georgia. If you actually look at the source you would see that 538 has all those teams ahead of WSU along with Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Clemson.You're just underestimating the number of losses still potentially out there the next two weeks plus championship games.For example Notre Dame is about 25% to lose at home to Syracuse this Saturday. I estimate a similar line for next week @USC maybe slightly higher chances for USC. So Notre Dame is around 45% to lose a game. They probably aren't getting in over 12-1 WSU at 11-1 with no conference championship game and their shit schedule (unlucky that FSU, Stanford, and USC all suck this year.)
They have pretty much zero chance. Michigan, Ohio State (play each other, winner goes) is ahead of them. Notre Dame (unless they lose to USC El oh el). Georgia. If you actually look at the source you would see that 538 has all those teams ahead of WSU along with Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Clemson.You're just underestimating the number of losses still potentially out there the next two weeks plus championship games.For example Notre Dame is about 25% to lose at home to Syracuse this Saturday. I estimate a similar line for next week @USC maybe slightly higher chances for USC. So Notre Dame is around 45% to lose a game. They probably aren't getting in over 12-1 WSU at 11-1 with no conference championship game and their shit schedule (unlucky that FSU, Stanford, and USC all suck this year.) That would be real interesting. One loss Notre Dame or one loss WSU. They could have the same loss or ND could have a win over USC who beat WSU which would give ESPN the cover they need to get Notre Dame in thereI think the committee gives credit to a ND schedule despite the perfect storm of shittiness those teams were this year. WSU didn't even try.
They have pretty much zero chance. Michigan, Ohio State (play each other, winner goes) is ahead of them. Notre Dame (unless they lose to USC El oh el). Georgia. If you actually look at the source you would see that 538 has all those teams ahead of WSU along with Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Clemson.You're just underestimating the number of losses still potentially out there the next two weeks plus championship games.For example Notre Dame is about 25% to lose at home to Syracuse this Saturday. I estimate a similar line for next week @USC maybe slightly higher chances for USC. So Notre Dame is around 45% to lose a game. They probably aren't getting in over 12-1 WSU at 11-1 with no conference championship game and their shit schedule (unlucky that FSU, Stanford, and USC all suck this year.) That would be real interesting. One loss Notre Dame or one loss WSU. They could have the same loss or ND could have a win over USC who beat WSU which would give ESPN the cover they need to get Notre Dame in thereI think the committee gives credit to a ND schedule despite the perfect storm of shittiness those teams were this year. WSU didn't even try. Agree. One loss ND is getting in over one loss WSU almost assuredly. ND has the Michigan win, WSU doesn't have anything close to that and isn't going to have the chance to add anything like it. The committee stresses over and over it's about who you beat more than anything else. Hypothetical one loss ND's wins are going to look better than hypothetical one loss WSU's. I don't know about that. If ND loses @USC they would have the same loss. ND would have the best win but WSU would have the second through fifth best wins. And the only two wins of note that weren't at home.Despite their affiliation with the ACC and 5 game quasi-conferemce schedule Notre Dame faced just ONE of the top SEVEN ACC teams- and that game was at hime.vs. Michigan (Sagarin #3) NDvs. UW (#10) WSU@Stanford (#22) WSUNeutral Utah (#14) WSUvs. Utah (#14) WSUvs. Stanford (#22) ND@Northwestern (#33) NDvs. Syracuse (#34) ND@Colorado(#62) WSU@VTech (#63) ND@Wake (#73) NDvs. Pitt (#42) NDvs. Oregon (#44) WSUvs. Arizona (#55) WSUvs. Cal (#56) WSUvs. FSU (#65) NDvs. Vanderbilt (#66) ND@Wyoming (#100) WSUvs. EWash (#80) WSU@Navy (#110) ND@OSU (#116) WSUvs. Ball State (#137) NDvs. SJSU (#158) WSU
They have pretty much zero chance. Michigan, Ohio State (play each other, winner goes) is ahead of them. Notre Dame (unless they lose to USC El oh el). Georgia. If you actually look at the source you would see that 538 has all those teams ahead of WSU along with Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Clemson.You're just underestimating the number of losses still potentially out there the next two weeks plus championship games.For example Notre Dame is about 25% to lose at home to Syracuse this Saturday. I estimate a similar line for next week @USC maybe slightly higher chances for USC. So Notre Dame is around 45% to lose a game. They probably aren't getting in over 12-1 WSU at 11-1 with no conference championship game and their shit schedule (unlucky that FSU, Stanford, and USC all suck this year.) That would be real interesting. One loss Notre Dame or one loss WSU. They could have the same loss or ND could have a win over USC who beat WSU which would give ESPN the cover they need to get Notre Dame in thereI think the committee gives credit to a ND schedule despite the perfect storm of shittiness those teams were this year. WSU didn't even try. Agree. One loss ND is getting in over one loss WSU almost assuredly. ND has the Michigan win, WSU doesn't have anything close to that and isn't going to have the chance to add anything like it. The committee stresses over and over it's about who you beat more than anything else. Hypothetical one loss ND's wins are going to look better than hypothetical one loss WSU's.
They have pretty much zero chance. Michigan, Ohio State (play each other, winner goes) is ahead of them. Notre Dame (unless they lose to USC El oh el). Georgia. If you actually look at the source you would see that 538 has all those teams ahead of WSU along with Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Clemson.You're just underestimating the number of losses still potentially out there the next two weeks plus championship games.For example Notre Dame is about 25% to lose at home to Syracuse this Saturday. I estimate a similar line for next week @USC maybe slightly higher chances for USC. So Notre Dame is around 45% to lose a game. They probably aren't getting in over 12-1 WSU at 11-1 with no conference championship game and their shit schedule (unlucky that FSU, Stanford, and USC all suck this year.) That would be real interesting. One loss Notre Dame or one loss WSU. They could have the same loss or ND could have a win over USC who beat WSU which would give ESPN the cover they need to get Notre Dame in thereI think the committee gives credit to a ND schedule despite the perfect storm of shittiness those teams were this year. WSU didn't even try. Agree. One loss ND is getting in over one loss WSU almost assuredly. ND has the Michigan win, WSU doesn't have anything close to that and isn't going to have the chance to add anything like it. The committee stresses over and over it's about who you beat more than anything else. Hypothetical one loss ND's wins are going to look better than hypothetical one loss WSU's. I don't know about that. If ND loses @USC they would have the same loss. ND would have the best win but WSU would have the second through fifth best wins. And the only two wins of note that weren't at home.Despite their affiliation with the ACC and 5 game quasi-conferemce schedule Notre Dame faced just ONE of the top SEVEN ACC teams- and that game was at hime.vs. Michigan (Sagarin #3) NDvs. UW (#10) WSU@Stanford (#22) WSUNeutral Utah (#14) WSUvs. Utah (#14) WSUvs. Stanford (#22) ND@Northwestern (#33) NDvs. Syracuse (#34) ND@Colorado(#62) WSU@VTech (#63) ND@Wake (#73) NDvs. Pitt (#42) NDvs. Oregon (#44) WSUvs. Arizona (#55) WSUvs. Cal (#56) WSUvs. FSU (#65) NDvs. Vanderbilt (#66) ND@Wyoming (#100) WSUvs. EWash (#80) WSU@Navy (#110) ND@OSU (#116) WSUvs. Ball State (#137) NDvs. SJSU (#158) WSU Why use Sagarin when you can use the playoff committees actual rankings at least for the top 25? I get using Sagarin as a proxy for what the playoff committee doesn't rank but the committee sees things fairly different from Sagarin (Sagarin is superior IMO but that's a different argument).ND4 - Michigan12 - Syracuse @sure to drop in this case)22 - @ NorthwesternWSU18 - Washington (sure to drop in this case)19 - Utah (neutral)WSU's mid tier wins might be better but by the committee rankings ND has wins 1 and 2 and the best true road win. Now Syracuse could drop below Utah I suppose but they're not dropping below UW so at best WSU has wins 2 and 5 while ND gets wins 1, 3 and 4.Not sure why you're using Sagarin but it's a very flawed process if you're trying to predict what the committee going to do IMO.
