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UW Doog Bot's Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator UCLA win Fupdate

UW_Doog_Bot
UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,187 Founders Club
in Hardcore Husky Board
The probability of going undefeated in PAC 12 play jumped significantly this week from 27% to 36% while having 1 loss only gained 1%. It is however, still the most likely scenario at 40%. The combined probability of going 8-1 or better is now more than 75% and with a Stanford loss puts UW with a similar probability of winning the PAC 12 North. Most likely, this weeks game against Oregon will be the highest probability of a loss left on the schedule. If UW wins this game the probability of going undefeated in conference will for the first time be greater than the probability of incurring 1 loss.



Don't have the time yet to update PPG. Will try to get to it later this week if I get a chance.

Until then, here are some maff gifs









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Comments

  • FireCohen
    FireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,187 Founders Club
    WeakarmCobra said:

    Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season

    Hmmmm, good question, brb, yo.
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  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 114,119 Founders Club
    UCLA was my top loss possibility

    9-0 here we come
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,187 Founders Club
    WeakarmCobra said:

    Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season



    Not that likely according to the model. Keep in mind that it won't account for things like teams quitting on games or being desperate for 1 win etc. though. It's purely a game to game % predictor.
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,187 Founders Club
    That got me thinking and I went ahead and plugged in both Stanford and Oregon's FPI probabilities. TLDR we've already won the North unless we? really manage to screw the pooch here.




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  • Mad_Son
    Mad_Son Member Posts: 10,194
    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    WeakarmCobra said:

    Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season



    Not that likely according to the model. Keep in mind that it won't account for things like teams quitting on games or being desperate for 1 win etc. though. It's purely a game to game % predictor.
    Wrong kind of perfect season.
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  • Mad_Son
    Mad_Son Member Posts: 10,194
    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    That got me thinking and I went ahead and plugged in both Stanford and Oregon's FPI probabilities. TLDR we've already won the North unless we? really manage to screw the pooch here.




    What does it look like with just conference games?
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  • FireCohen
    FireCohen Member Posts: 21,823
    Mad_Son said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    WeakarmCobra said:

    Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season



    Not that likely according to the model. Keep in mind that it won't account for things like teams quitting on games or being desperate for 1 win etc. though. It's purely a game to game % predictor.
    Wrong kind of perfect season.
    Yeah, but still perfect right @TierbsHsotBoobs ?
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,187 Founders Club
    Mad_Son said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    That got me thinking and I went ahead and plugged in both Stanford and Oregon's FPI probabilities. TLDR we've already won the North unless we? really manage to screw the pooch here.




    What does it look like with just conference games?
    All OOC games have been played and accounted for so are you asking me to do the basic arithmetic for you?



    Stanford 6-3 and Oregon 5-4 most likely scenarios. Both 8-4 overall.
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  • oregonblitzkrieg
    oregonblitzkrieg Member Posts: 15,288
    Oregon going 8-4, not going to happen doog.
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,187 Founders Club
    oregonblitzkrieg said:

    Oregon going 8-4, not going to happen doog.

    TUFF talk for someone unwilling to make a bet.
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  • DoogCourics
    DoogCourics Member Posts: 5,739
    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    The probability of going undefeated in PAC 12 play jumped significantly this week from 27% to 36% while having 1 loss only gained 1%. It is however, still the most likely scenario at 40%. The combined probability of going 8-1 or better is now more than 75% and with a Stanford loss puts UW with a similar probability of winning the PAC 12 North. Most likely, this weeks game against Oregon will be the highest probability of a loss left on the schedule. If UW wins this game the probability of going undefeated in conference will for the first time be greater than the probability of incurring 1 loss.



    Don't have the time yet to update PPG. Will try to get to it later this week if I get a chance.

    Until then, here are some maff gifs














    Appreciate you.
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  • NEsnake12
    NEsnake12 Member Posts: 3,795
    DoogCourics said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    The probability of going undefeated in PAC 12 play jumped significantly this week from 27% to 36% while having 1 loss only gained 1%. It is however, still the most likely scenario at 40%. The combined probability of going 8-1 or better is now more than 75% and with a Stanford loss puts UW with a similar probability of winning the PAC 12 North. Most likely, this weeks game against Oregon will be the highest probability of a loss left on the schedule. If UW wins this game the probability of going undefeated in conference will for the first time be greater than the probability of incurring 1 loss.



    Don't have the time yet to update PPG. Will try to get to it later this week if I get a chance.

    Until then, here are some maff gifs














    Appreciate you.

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  • Mad_Son
    Mad_Son Member Posts: 10,194
    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    Mad_Son said:

    UW_Doog_Bot said:

    That got me thinking and I went ahead and plugged in both Stanford and Oregon's FPI probabilities. TLDR we've already won the North unless we? really manage to screw the pooch here.




    What does it look like with just conference games?
    All OOC games have been played and accounted for so are you asking me to do the basic arithmetic for you?



    Stanford 6-3 and Oregon 5-4 most likely scenarios. Both 8-4 overall.
    Not everyone knows their ooc a priori. You didn't present the relevant information initially, you presented the relevant information with extra irrelevant information. The both 8-4 overall as shown by the graphs highlights my point.
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