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UW Doog Bot's Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator UCLA win Fupdate
UW_Doog_Bot
Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,577 
The probability of going undefeated in PAC 12 play jumped significantly this week from 27% to 36% while having 1 loss only gained 1%. It is however, still the most likely scenario at 40%. The combined probability of going 8-1 or better is now more than 75% and with a Stanford loss puts UW with a similar probability of winning the PAC 12 North. Most likely, this weeks game against Oregon will be the highest probability of a loss left on the schedule. If UW wins this game the probability of going undefeated in conference will for the first time be greater than the probability of incurring 1 loss.
Don't have the time yet to update PPG. Will try to get to it later this week if I get a chance.
Until then, here are some maff gifs
Don't have the time yet to update PPG. Will try to get to it later this week if I get a chance.
Until then, here are some maff gifs
Comments
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Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season
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Hmmmm, good question, brb, yo.WeakarmCobra said:Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season
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UCLA was my top loss possibility
9-0 here we come -
WeakarmCobra said:
Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season
Not that likely according to the model. Keep in mind that it won't account for things like teams quitting on games or being desperate for 1 win etc. though. It's purely a game to game % predictor. -
That got me thinking and I went ahead and plugged in both Stanford and Oregon's FPI probabilities. TLDR we've already won the North unless we? really manage to screw the pooch here.
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Wrong kind of perfect season.UW_Doog_Bot said:WeakarmCobra said:Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season
Not that likely according to the model. Keep in mind that it won't account for things like teams quitting on games or being desperate for 1 win etc. though. It's purely a game to game % predictor. -
What does it look like with just conference games?UW_Doog_Bot said:That got me thinking and I went ahead and plugged in both Stanford and Oregon's FPI probabilities. TLDR we've already won the North unless we? really manage to screw the pooch here.
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Yeah, but still perfect right @TierbsHsotBoobs ?Mad_Son said:
Wrong kind of perfect season.UW_Doog_Bot said:WeakarmCobra said:Hey what is the probability that UCLA has perfect season
Not that likely according to the model. Keep in mind that it won't account for things like teams quitting on games or being desperate for 1 win etc. though. It's purely a game to game % predictor. -
All OOC games have been played and accounted for so are you asking me to do the basic arithmetic for you?Mad_Son said:
What does it look like with just conference games?UW_Doog_Bot said:That got me thinking and I went ahead and plugged in both Stanford and Oregon's FPI probabilities. TLDR we've already won the North unless we? really manage to screw the pooch here.
Stanford 6-3 and Oregon 5-4 most likely scenarios. Both 8-4 overall.
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Oregon going 8-4, not going to happen doog.
