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UW Doog Bot's Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator BYU win Fupdate
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Shut down Bryce love but still allow Stanford to score 11.4 points more than their average.oregonblitzkrieg said:Shutting down Bryce Love, two defensive touchdowns and five takeaways against Cal. Oregon's defense sucks. Sure.
Get two defensive touchdowns and and five takeaways, yet Cal only scores 4.5 points less than they normally do.
Sure, Oregon’s defense sucks. -
I'm not smart enough for this
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We are probably dropping one of either @ Oregon or vs. Stanford the rest of the way(but that's it). HH polling beginning of the season says Stanford. ESPN FPI and PPG metrics would say Oregon is the bigger toss up. From a "winning the North" perspective it's probably better to beat Stanford and lose to Oregon. We are still favored in both games though and have a decent probability of winning out. We could also drop a game that we "should" really win while beating both of those teams but that is less likely.phineas said:I'm not smart enough for this
10-2 overall and 8-1 conference records are what the maf' is predicting. -
I thight obk was taking a break to prepare for the disappointing rest of the season
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It would be better if we won both games like we should.UW_Doog_Bot said:
We are probably dropping one of either @ Oregon or vs. Stanford the rest of the way(but that's it). HH polling beginning of the season says Stanford. ESPN FPI and PPG metrics would say Oregon is the bigger toss up. From a "winning the North" perspective it's probably better to beat Stanford and lose to Oregon. We are still favored in both games though and have a decent probability of winning out. We could also drop a game that we "should" really win while beating both of those teams but that is less likely.phineas said:I'm not smart enough for this
10-2 overall and 8-1 conference records are what the maf' is predicting. -
Of course, I'm just telling you what the math predicts as a probability distribution. Alabama is usually favored in every single game they play but they still usually drop one.backthepack said:
It would be better if we won both games like we should.UW_Doog_Bot said:
We are probably dropping one of either @ Oregon or vs. Stanford the rest of the way(but that's it). HH polling beginning of the season says Stanford. ESPN FPI and PPG metrics would say Oregon is the bigger toss up. From a "winning the North" perspective it's probably better to beat Stanford and lose to Oregon. We are still favored in both games though and have a decent probability of winning out. We could also drop a game that we "should" really win while beating both of those teams but that is less likely.phineas said:I'm not smart enough for this
10-2 overall and 8-1 conference records are what the maf' is predicting.
Even if you are at 90% to win every game, over a ten game schedule that means the most likely outcome is that you are 9-1 even though in a vacuum you should have also won that 1 game. -
UW_Doog_Bot said:
Of course, I'm just telling you what the math predicts as a probability distribution. Alabama is usually favored in every single game they play but they still usually drop one.backthepack said:
It would be better if we won both games like we should.UW_Doog_Bot said:
We are probably dropping one of either @ Oregon or vs. Stanford the rest of the way(but that's it). HH polling beginning of the season says Stanford. ESPN FPI and PPG metrics would say Oregon is the bigger toss up. From a "winning the North" perspective it's probably better to beat Stanford and lose to Oregon. We are still favored in both games though and have a decent probability of winning out. We could also drop a game that we "should" really win while beating both of those teams but that is less likely.phineas said:I'm not smart enough for this
10-2 overall and 8-1 conference records are what the maf' is predicting.
Even if you are at 90% to win every game, over a ten game schedule that means the most likely outcome is that you are 9-1 even though in a vacuum you should have also won that 1 game.
