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UW Doog Bot's Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator ASU win Fupdate

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    oregonblitzkriegoregonblitzkrieg Member Posts: 15,288
    First Anniversary 5 Awesomes 5 Up Votes First Comment


    Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.


    If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.
    Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

    You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.
    Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.
    As the kids like to say today, we are punching down at Oregon. We are punching up at Stanford thanks to last year

    We just punched up ASU as well

    Doog POTW.
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    UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 14,180
    First Anniversary First Comment 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes
    Swaye's Wigwam


    Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.


    If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.
    Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

    You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.
    Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.
    As the kids like to say today, we are punching down at Oregon. We are punching up at Stanford thanks to last year

    We just punched up ASU as well

    Doog POTW.
    Make the bet or gtfo.
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    oregonblitzkriegoregonblitzkrieg Member Posts: 15,288
    First Anniversary 5 Awesomes 5 Up Votes First Comment
    edited September 2018

    Doogles said:


    Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.


    If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.
    Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

    You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.
    Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.
    With you Yella.

    Oregon game is the hardest remaining and I don't think it's really close.

    They have the Best QB, a bye week to prepare, at home.

    Someone posted a stat that the record for P12 teams going back to back on the road against any team not named Oregon State is 1-14???

    Game is huge.
    It's a YUGE competitive disadvantage game for us. We'll probably be favored by between 4 and 7 pts but still
    This entirely depends on what happens at Cal. We win that game and we go into the UW game favored, provided we also have our healthy starting QB.
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    whlinderwhlinder Member Posts: 4,268
    5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes First Anniversary First Comment
    Standard Supporter
    In addition to the Oregon game being the 2nd road game in a row for us vs them coming off a bye, at that point in the season they will have played 2 real games (2 conference) vs 5 for us (3 conf plus Auburn and BYU). We will be way more beat up.

    That game is at best a toss up.
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    oregonblitzkriegoregonblitzkrieg Member Posts: 15,288
    First Anniversary 5 Awesomes 5 Up Votes First Comment


    Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.


    If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.
    Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

    You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.
    Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.
    As the kids like to say today, we are punching down at Oregon. We are punching up at Stanford thanks to last year

    We just punched up ASU as well

    Doog POTW.
    Make the bet or gtfo.
    Talk to J about that, he's scared of Herbert.
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    DooglesDoogles Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 12,466
    First Anniversary First Comment 5 Awesomes 5 Up Votes
    Swaye's Wigwam

    Doogles said:


    Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.


    If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.
    Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

    You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.
    Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.
    With you Yella.

    Oregon game is the hardest remaining and I don't think it's really close.

    They have the Best QB, a bye week to prepare, at home.

    Someone posted a stat that the record for P12 teams going back to back on the road against any team not named Oregon State is 1-14???

    Game is huge.
    It's a YUGE competitive disadvantage game for us. We'll probably be favored by between 4 and 7 pts but still
    This entirely depends on what happens at Cal. We win that game and we go into the UW game favored, provided we also have our healthy starting QB.
    I predict the national champion depends on if they make the playoffs, won the semi final, then win the final.
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    UWhuskytskeetUWhuskytskeet Member Posts: 7,108
    First Anniversary 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes First Answer


    Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.


    If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.
    Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

    You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.
    Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.
    As the kids like to say today, we are punching down at Oregon. We are punching up at Stanford thanks to last year

    We just punched up ASU as well

    Doog POTW.
    Make the bet or gtfo.
    Talk to J about that, he's scared of Herbert.
    Herbert isn't nearly as TUFF as Browning. He's always hurt. Sad.
  • Options
    oregonblitzkriegoregonblitzkrieg Member Posts: 15,288
    First Anniversary 5 Awesomes 5 Up Votes First Comment


    Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.


    If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.
    Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

    You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.
    Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.
    As the kids like to say today, we are punching down at Oregon. We are punching up at Stanford thanks to last year

    We just punched up ASU as well

    Doog POTW.
    Make the bet or gtfo.
    Talk to J about that, he's scared of Herbert.
    Herbert isn't nearly as TUFF as Browning. He's always hurt. Sad.
    Yeah he sometimes gets hurt.


    As he slams through an opposing team's defense to score a touchdown.

    Less of that, more precision accuracy throws is what we want.
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    TierbsHsotBoobsTierbsHsotBoobs Member Posts: 39,680
    Combo Breaker 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes First Anniversary
    The BYE game doesn't look like a 91% win right now.

    Should be 81%
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    CFetters_Nacho_LoverCFetters_Nacho_Lover Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 28,838
    First Anniversary First Comment 5 Up Votes Combo Breaker
    Founders Club

    I'm hearing UW improved the scoring defense metric of the 4 teams we've played by scoring higher than their respective averages. Can this be mathematically proven? TIA.

    Do you mean the defenses we have faced have had their average scores against go up as a result of playing us? or go down? I'm assuming the first but that would mean the opposite of improved.

    Off the top of my head, I would guess that we have outscored the average against for every defense we have played and driven their ppg up, yes.

    This is fairly easy to show mathematically if it is what you are asking.



    It's still early so the UW game would be dragging averages up and down respectively to a larger than normal degree as well as any games against "cupcakes" etc. Still, we? are consistently putting more points up than teams are otherwise allowing and consistently giving up less points than teams are normally scoring.

    You can somewhat use this to project outcomes moving forward but it has a high level of variance this early in the season.
    Poast this as the season goes on. I could do the work myself, but I enjoy when others make charts for me.
    Projected out for the rest of the season with current averages. I can update on a weekly basis since that was super easy. Currently Colorado projecting as the toughest opponent by this metric but like I said, it's super early. Even another couple of weeks should make the numbers settle a bit more close to their "true" value.


    @TheChart??? True??!!??
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    KaepskneeKaepsknee Member Posts: 14,750
    5 Up Votes First Anniversary 5 Awesomes First Comment


    Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.


    We? could really use a Stanford win this weekend as well.
    Why?
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    KaepskneeKaepsknee Member Posts: 14,750
    5 Up Votes First Anniversary 5 Awesomes First Comment


    Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.


    If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.
    Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

    You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.
    Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.
    As the kids like to say today, we are punching down at Oregon. We are punching up at Stanford thanks to last year

    We just punched up ASU as well

    Doog POTW.
    Make the bet or gtfo.
    Talk to J about that, he's scared of Herbert.
    Herbert isn't nearly as TUFF as Browning. He's always hurt. Sad.
    Yeah he sometimes gets hurt.


    As he slams through an opposing team's defense to score a touchdown.

    Less of that, more precision accuracy throws is what we want.
    Noted sackless pussy weighs in.
  • Options
    DoogCouricsDoogCourics Member Posts: 5,739
    First Anniversary First Comment 5 Awesomes 5 Up Votes


    Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.


    If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.
    Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

    You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.
    Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.
    As the kids like to say today, we are punching down at Oregon. We are punching up at Stanford thanks to last year

    We just punched up ASU as well

    Doog POTW.
    Make the bet or gtfo.
    Talk to J about that, he's scared of Herbert.
    Herbert isn't nearly as TUFF as Browning. He's always hurt. Sad.
    Yeah he sometimes gets hurt.


    As he slams through an opposing team's defense to score a touchdown.

    Less of that, more precision accuracy throws is what we want.
    So you’re sayin, he’s willing to take a bet on himself and go for the score.

    But you’d rather him puss out and wait for right time.
  • Options
    oregonblitzkriegoregonblitzkrieg Member Posts: 15,288
    First Anniversary 5 Awesomes 5 Up Votes First Comment


    Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.


    If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.
    Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

    You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.
    Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.
    As the kids like to say today, we are punching down at Oregon. We are punching up at Stanford thanks to last year

    We just punched up ASU as well

    Doog POTW.
    Make the bet or gtfo.
    Talk to J about that, he's scared of Herbert.
    Herbert isn't nearly as TUFF as Browning. He's always hurt. Sad.
    Yeah he sometimes gets hurt.


    As he slams through an opposing team's defense to score a touchdown.

    Less of that, more precision accuracy throws is what we want.
    So you’re sayin, he’s willing to take a bet on himself and go for the score.

    But you’d rather him puss out and wait for right time.
    Save those type of plays for the bigger games when it's needed. If it's not needed, don't do it. I don't want Shitmeister taking another meaningful snap in other words.
  • Options
    oregonblitzkriegoregonblitzkrieg Member Posts: 15,288
    First Anniversary 5 Awesomes 5 Up Votes First Comment
    salemcoog said:


    Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.


    If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.
    Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

    You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.
    Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.
    As the kids like to say today, we are punching down at Oregon. We are punching up at Stanford thanks to last year

    We just punched up ASU as well

    Doog POTW.
    Make the bet or gtfo.
    Talk to J about that, he's scared of Herbert.
    Herbert isn't nearly as TUFF as Browning. He's always hurt. Sad.
    Yeah he sometimes gets hurt.


    As he slams through an opposing team's defense to score a touchdown.

    Less of that, more precision accuracy throws is what we want.
    Noted sackless pussy weighs in.
    You understood the betting terms and didn't deliver. You're the sackless pussy. I'll give you another out though if you decide to change your mind and want to be a big boy.
  • Options
    UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 14,180
    First Anniversary First Comment 5 Up Votes 5 Awesomes
    Swaye's Wigwam

    salemcoog said:


    Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.


    If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.
    Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).

    You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.
    Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.
    As the kids like to say today, we are punching down at Oregon. We are punching up at Stanford thanks to last year

    We just punched up ASU as well

    Doog POTW.
    Make the bet or gtfo.
    Talk to J about that, he's scared of Herbert.
    Herbert isn't nearly as TUFF as Browning. He's always hurt. Sad.
    Yeah he sometimes gets hurt.


    As he slams through an opposing team's defense to score a touchdown.

    Less of that, more precision accuracy throws is what we want.
    Noted sackless pussy weighs in.
    You understood the betting terms and didn't deliver. You're the sackless pussy. I'll give you another out though if you decide to change your mind and want to be a big boy.
    All I read is gutless quooking. Quook-a-doodle-doo mother fucker.


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