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UW Doog Bot's Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator ASU win Fupdate
Comments
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Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).YellowSnow said:
If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.YellowSnow said:
You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference. -
Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).YellowSnow said:
If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.YellowSnow said:
You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference. -
As the kids like to say today, we are punching down at Oregon. We are punching up at Stanford thanks to last yearYellowSnow said:
Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).YellowSnow said:
If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.YellowSnow said:
You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.
We just punched up ASU as well
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With you Yella.YellowSnow said:
Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).YellowSnow said:
If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.YellowSnow said:
You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.
Oregon game is the hardest remaining and I don't think it's really close.
They have the Best QB, a bye week to prepare, at home.
Someone posted a stat that the record for P12 teams going back to back on the road against any team not named Oregon State is 1-14???
Game is huge.
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It's a YUGE competitive disadvantage game for us. We'll probably be favored by between 4 and 7 pts but stillDoogles said:
With you Yella.YellowSnow said:
Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).YellowSnow said:
If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.YellowSnow said:
You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.
Oregon game is the hardest remaining and I don't think it's really close.
They have the Best QB, a bye week to prepare, at home.
Someone posted a stat that the record for P12 teams going back to back on the road against any team not named Oregon State is 1-14???
Game is huge. -
But how does Larry Scott deserve 0-8 Bowl Season?YellowSnow said:
It's a YUGE competitive disadvantage game for us. We'll probably be favored by between 4 and 7 pts but stillDoogles said:
With you Yella.YellowSnow said:
Oregon is the benchmark game. They have equal talent to us (based on TBS metrics), a better QB, and are playing us at home after a bye. We win that one and it's good sign that we might be able to run the table.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Ironically, I would say beating Oregon is the least pivotal game for us to win. It's the most likely game aside from Stanford for us to drop so if we beat Stanford and go 8-1 we would still win the North. There aren't a lot of other Pac games than that that we are likely to drop. Lose to Stanford and Oregon doesn't matter either way unless Stanford manages to drop two or more(low odds of that happening).YellowSnow said:
If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.YellowSnow said:
You can argue that the Oregon game is an "indicator" of how good we are but then that is pulling down the "indepent" assumption built into these probabilities and we are having a bigger discussion of relative strengths of all the teams in the conference.
Oregon game is the hardest remaining and I don't think it's really close.
They have the Best QB, a bye week to prepare, at home.
Someone posted a stat that the record for P12 teams going back to back on the road against any team not named Oregon State is 1-14???
Game is huge. -
I am old and constipated - think I will go upstairs and work all this out with my slide rule
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Poast this as the season goes on. I could do the work myself, but I enjoy when others make charts for me.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Do you mean the defenses we have faced have had their average scores against go up as a result of playing us? or go down? I'm assuming the first but that would mean the opposite of improved.WilburHooksHands said:I'm hearing UW improved the scoring defense metric of the 4 teams we've played by scoring higher than their respective averages. Can this be mathematically proven? TIA.
Off the top of my head, I would guess that we have outscored the average against for every defense we have played and driven their ppg up, yes.
This is fairly easy to show mathematically if it is what you are asking.
It's still early so the UW game would be dragging averages up and down respectively to a larger than normal degree as well as any games against "cupcakes" etc. Still, we? are consistently putting more points up than teams are otherwise allowing and consistently giving up less points than teams are normally scoring.
You can somewhat use this to project outcomes moving forward but it has a high level of variance this early in the season. -
Projected out for the rest of the season with current averages. I can update on a weekly basis since that was super easy. Currently Colorado projecting as the toughest opponent by this metric but like I said, it's super early. Even another couple of weeks should make the numbers settle a bit more close to their "true" value.DoogCourics said:
Poast this as the season goes on. I could do the work myself, but I enjoy when others make charts for me.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Do you mean the defenses we have faced have had their average scores against go up as a result of playing us? or go down? I'm assuming the first but that would mean the opposite of improved.WilburHooksHands said:I'm hearing UW improved the scoring defense metric of the 4 teams we've played by scoring higher than their respective averages. Can this be mathematically proven? TIA.
Off the top of my head, I would guess that we have outscored the average against for every defense we have played and driven their ppg up, yes.
This is fairly easy to show mathematically if it is what you are asking.
It's still early so the UW game would be dragging averages up and down respectively to a larger than normal degree as well as any games against "cupcakes" etc. Still, we? are consistently putting more points up than teams are otherwise allowing and consistently giving up less points than teams are normally scoring.
You can somewhat use this to project outcomes moving forward but it has a high level of variance this early in the season.
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Appreciate you.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Projected out for the rest of the season with current averages. I can update on a weekly basis since that was super easy. Currently Colorado projecting as the toughest opponent by this metric but like I said, it's super early. Even another couple of weeks should make the numbers settle a bit more close to their "true" value.DoogCourics said:
Poast this as the season goes on. I could do the work myself, but I enjoy when others make charts for me.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Do you mean the defenses we have faced have had their average scores against go up as a result of playing us? or go down? I'm assuming the first but that would mean the opposite of improved.WilburHooksHands said:I'm hearing UW improved the scoring defense metric of the 4 teams we've played by scoring higher than their respective averages. Can this be mathematically proven? TIA.
Off the top of my head, I would guess that we have outscored the average against for every defense we have played and driven their ppg up, yes.
This is fairly easy to show mathematically if it is what you are asking.
It's still early so the UW game would be dragging averages up and down respectively to a larger than normal degree as well as any games against "cupcakes" etc. Still, we? are consistently putting more points up than teams are otherwise allowing and consistently giving up less points than teams are normally scoring.
You can somewhat use this to project outcomes moving forward but it has a high level of variance this early in the season.
