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UW Doog Bot's Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator ASU win Fupdate
UW_Doog_Bot
Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,581 
A 10-2 overall record with an 8-1 conference record is still the most likely outcome for the season with increasing likelihoods of 37.7% and 38.8% respectively. The likelihood of doing this well or better has now become roughly 66% for our Dwags with the given expected win probabilities. The odds of going undefeated in Pac12 play have doubled since beating Utah and ASU. The most likely loss left on the schedule is Stanford. While the UCLA game may look like a more likely win games against Oregon and Cal may now be more uncertain. I expect some of the pre-season probabilities to have shifted but the overall averages to have more or less balanced out across the schedule. I will re-poll the boared at the mid-way point of the season to see if there are any significant changes to the predicted outcomes.
As promised, I was told there would be no maff'.gif
As promised, I was told there would be no maff'.gif
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I'm hearing UW improved the scoring defense metric of the 4 teams we've played by scoring higher than their respective averages. Can this be mathematically proven? TIA.
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Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.YellowSnow said:
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Do you mean the defenses we have faced have had their average scores against go up as a result of playing us? or go down? I'm assuming the first but that would mean the opposite of improved.WilburHooksHands said:I'm hearing UW improved the scoring defense metric of the 4 teams we've played by scoring higher than their respective averages. Can this be mathematically proven? TIA.
Off the top of my head, I would guess that we have outscored the average against for every defense we have played and driven their ppg up, yes.
This is fairly easy to show mathematically if it is what you are asking.
It's still early so the UW game would be dragging averages up and down respectively to a larger than normal degree as well as any games against "cupcakes" etc. Still, we? are consistently putting more points up than teams are otherwise allowing and consistently giving up less points than teams are normally scoring.
You can somewhat use this to project outcomes moving forward but it has a high level of variance this early in the season.
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If we lose any Pac12 game burn it to the ground.
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We? could really use a Stanford win this weekend as well.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.YellowSnow said: -
No it was a joke from another thread but you fucked it up hthUW_Doog_Bot said:
Do you mean the defenses we have faced have had their average scores against go up as a result of playing us? or go down? I'm assuming the first but that would mean the opposite of improved.WilburHooksHands said:I'm hearing UW improved the scoring defense metric of the 4 teams we've played by scoring higher than their respective averages. Can this be mathematically proven? TIA.
Off the top of my head, I would guess that we have outscored the average against for every defense we have played and driven their ppg up, yes.
This is fairly easy to show mathematically if it is what you are asking.
It's still early so the UW game would be dragging averages up and down respectively to a larger than normal degree as well as any games against "cupcakes" etc. Still, we? are consistently putting more points up than teams are otherwise allowing and consistently giving up less points than teams are normally scoring.
You can somewhat use this to project outcomes moving forward but it has a high level of variance this early in the season. -
I got into autist math mode. It happens.WilburHooksHands said:
No it was a joke from another thread but you fucked it up hthUW_Doog_Bot said:
Do you mean the defenses we have faced have had their average scores against go up as a result of playing us? or go down? I'm assuming the first but that would mean the opposite of improved.WilburHooksHands said:I'm hearing UW improved the scoring defense metric of the 4 teams we've played by scoring higher than their respective averages. Can this be mathematically proven? TIA.
Off the top of my head, I would guess that we have outscored the average against for every defense we have played and driven their ppg up, yes.
This is fairly easy to show mathematically if it is what you are asking.
It's still early so the UW game would be dragging averages up and down respectively to a larger than normal degree as well as any games against "cupcakes" etc. Still, we? are consistently putting more points up than teams are otherwise allowing and consistently giving up less points than teams are normally scoring.
You can somewhat use this to project outcomes moving forward but it has a high level of variance this early in the season.
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What's really painful to consider is that with an Auburn win this is what the skew would look like and we wouldn't have to give a fuck what anyone else was doing...HillsboroDuck said:
We? could really use a Stanford win this weekend as well.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.YellowSnow said:
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If we can't beat Stanford at home in Nov, we don't deserve to win the North or play in the Rose Bowl and I'm fine with that. Beating OBK would help immensely towards and give Stanford less margin for error. They still have some road games at ASU, WSU and Cal that won't be gimmies but no obvious losses here either.UW_Doog_Bot said:
Just keep winning and most importantly, beat Stanford. The rest of their schedule lines up nicely for them with their road game against us being the obvious largest hurdle. Having already beat USC and Oregon I could see them dropping only one conference game for the year. If we lose to them we could very easily end up with a tied record in the North with them holding onto the tie breaker, see last year, or even worse, losing to them outright. Beat them, and it is super unlikely that we drop 2 more games to allow them to win the North.YellowSnow said:
