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UW Doog Bot's Season Wins Probability Distribution Calculator @Auburn

2

Comments

  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,855
    Unlikely to win
    I'm at like 45/55. True neutral site I'd flip those numbers. But Auburn's going to have a lot more fans there, they travel a lot less distance, and UW is going to be playing a much earlier game than they are accustomed to (thanks Larry Scott!). Lot of little factors helping Aubby in this one.
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,583 Founders Club
    50/50 to win
    dnc said:

    I'm at like 45/55. True neutral site I'd flip those numbers. But Auburn's going to have a lot more fans there, they travel a lot less distance, and UW is going to be playing a much earlier game than they are accustomed to (thanks Larry Scott!). Lot of little factors helping Aubby in this one.

    It's fine to vote "close enough" as with a large enough sample the percentages should reflect this. I'm just hoping for over 30 respondents(that aren't fucktarded voting) because that will really help with outliers and in decreasing the "noise". Don't stress too much between 2 choices as they should cancel out over the sample size of respondents and bc you have 12 games to vote on individually.

    Ex. if you and 5 other people vote "Unlikely to win" and myself and 5 other people vote "50/50" my method would provide an answer in the range of 40-50% probability for a win.
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  • Gladstone
    Gladstone Member Posts: 16,425
    Unlikely to win
    level up game
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  • LesGrossman
    LesGrossman Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 1,522 Founders Club
    Unlikely to win
    dnc said:

    I'm at like 45/55. True neutral site I'd flip those numbers. But Auburn's going to have a lot more fans there, they travel a lot less distance, and UW is going to be playing a much earlier game than they are accustomed to (thanks Larry Scott!). Lot of little factors helping Aubby in this one.

    I’m thinking similarly. Maybe 40/60. If this was in 2 years when the new Inglewood stadium might host one of these “neutral site” games, it would be flipped.

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  • LesGrossman
    LesGrossman Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 1,522 Founders Club
    Unlikely to win
    LesGrossman said:

    dnc said:

    I'm at like 45/55. True neutral site I'd flip those numbers. But Auburn's going to have a lot more fans there, they travel a lot less distance, and UW is going to be playing a much earlier game than they are accustomed to (thanks Larry Scott!). Lot of little factors helping Aubby in this one.

    I’m thinking similarly. Maybe 40/60. If this was in 2 years when the new Inglewood stadium might host one of these “neutral site” games, it would be flipped.

    Not that Auburn would actually travel for that game...
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  • minion_doog
    minion_doog Member Posts: 2,024
    50/50 to win
    dnc said:

    I'm at like 45/55. True neutral site I'd flip those numbers. But Auburn's going to have a lot more fans there, they travel a lot less distance, and UW is going to be playing a much earlier game than they are accustomed to (thanks Larry Scott!). Lot of little factors helping Aubby in this one.


    I don't mean to ruin your weekend but...





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  • oregonblitzkrieg
    oregonblitzkrieg Member Posts: 15,288
    No way we win

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  • Pitchfork51
    Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 27,686
    No way we win
    The season is about to be over in T-minus 7 days.
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  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,583 Founders Club
    50/50 to win

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  • GreenRiverGatorz
    GreenRiverGatorz Member Posts: 10,168
    50/50 to win
    minion_doog said:

    dnc said:

    I'm at like 45/55. True neutral site I'd flip those numbers. But Auburn's going to have a lot more fans there, they travel a lot less distance, and UW is going to be playing a much earlier game than they are accustomed to (thanks Larry Scott!). Lot of little factors helping Aubby in this one.


    I don't mean to ruin your weekend but...





    I don't know why, but I'm very surprised to learn that Atlanta is that high above sea level.
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