Tequilla Study: How BAD was UW's 3rd Down Offense Last Year

Tequilla said:

A few things that stood out to me:

1) After the ASU game, at least in short yardage situation, there was an increased focus on running the ball

2) The play calling was heavy passing on anything outside of 3rd and 3 or less … that's an area where running the ball with more emphasis in both short- and mid-yardage situations could be an opportunity for improvement

3) Early down play calling is another area for major improvement as the balance of 3rd down conversions were mid- and long-yardage situations (short-yardage situations accounted for only 26% of our total 3rd down attempts)

4) A hallmark to me of Babushka's play calling was that he'd panic in situations where the offense got behind the chains trying to get too much of it back … to me that is a big factor in why the pass ratio was so high even though the numbers may not have supported the actual results

5) Browning takes sacks at a really high ratio on downs where he's forced to pass with distance. A lot of his weaknesses come out in these situations. This is also an issue that I suspect also plays out in looking at situations like throwing on 2nd and 9 or whatnot in that instead of taking the drop down pass to get a 4-6 yard gain getting in a much more favorable 3rd down situation he's much more likely to try to get it all back on 1 play and that then leaves these longer 3rd down situations.

6) Particularly after the ASU game, the WR/Bryant injuries combined with Browning's weaknesses basically turned 3rd and long into automatic punt situations

What does that mean for 2018 and the change from Babushka and Bush:

1) There's a lot of opportunity for Bush to come in and with some very small tweaks make some significant gains

2) We convert at a very high rate in 3rd and short situations … focusing the offense in a manner to ensure that we're playing to that strength is a huge win compared to Babushka … Babushka's offense (particularly last year) required the team to be picking up big chunks of yards … many scoring drives had limited, if any, 3rd down conversions. Particularly against good teams, 3rd down conversions are vital and will definitely be against Auburn. Getting into good down/distance situations will be important.

3) Being more willing to run the ball even in mid-yardage situations not only will take advantage of our best offensive players, will likely play better with what the stats/data tells us, but also potentially help the passing game in those situations. Because Babushka did not show a willingness to run, it made it much easier for defenses to drop behind the sticks and magnify Browning's inability to throw with relative anticipation given his lack of arm strength. Forcing defenses to better honor the run will potentially make those pass attempts a little easier for Browning

4) Playing to our team strengths (running game and defense) may result in some additional opportunities to take positive plays on 3rd and long on the ground versus risking disaster as Browning's yet to show a strong willingness on those situations to take say half the yardage and gain field position. Instead, it's more likely that he's going to run around trying to be Fran Tarkenton (he isn't) and take a negative play as looking at many of those sack situations they usually are coming not from our OL getting beat easily but more because of coverage and Browning holding the ball too long. Getting Browning to understand the internal clock and taking the drop down pass can also help.

Even if it's the drop down pass getting the ball in the hands of some of our playmakers(Gaskin, Salvon, Chico) gives them a chance to beat a man and potentially pick up the conversion. Even if it's not optimal it's far better than watching Jake try to do it or taking a deep sack.