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Tequilla Study: How BAD was UW's 3rd Down Offense Last Year
Tequilla
Member Posts: 20,098
It's been talked about dating back to last year regarding how pathetic the UW offense was on 3rd down ranging from Browning's play to Babushka's play calling. There's a very relevant NFL Films segment tied to Bart Starr and the Packers dating back to either Super Bowl I or II where it talks about the worth of a QB is how they perform on 3rd down … I think that that is particularly true. And in this regard, the data below becomes quite telling with respect to Browning. How bad was it? Let's take a look (note, I plan on doing a similar study on the Defense before the season):
METHODOLOGY
Rutgers
METHODOLOGY
- Includes all 3rd downs for drives started during first 3 quarters of games
- Includes any drive in the 4th quarter where the drive started with a margin of 3 scores or less
- The play call type is defined as what was actually called on a play (sacks and scrambles are considered passes)
- In the event that the 3rd down conversion was picked up via penalty, the original result of the play (sans penalty) was included in ALL stats (the penalties will be called out separately)
- UW had 138 3rd down attempts last year fitting the above criteria and converted 60 of them (before penalties) for a conversion rate of 43.5% (an additional 6 1st downs were picked up by penalty bringing the effective conversion rate up to 47.8%)
- The average 3rd down distance for UW was 6.69 yards; on average UW gained 4.96 yards on 3rd down
- Of the 138 attempts on 3rd down, UW called a pass play on 104 of those attempts, or 75.4% of the time
- Of those 104 pass attempts on 3rd down, UW converted at a 35.6% clip
- Of the 34 times UW ran the ball on 3rd down, the conversion rate was at a 67.6% clip
- Of the 67 times UW did not pick up a 1st down via throwing, 14 of those attempts resulted in sacks
- In total, UW allowed 20 sacks last year
Rutgers
- 3 of 11 on 3rd down for a 27% conversion rate
- 3 of 9 conversion via pass
- 0 for 2 conversions via run (run attempts were early in the game on a 3rd and 19 and towards the end of the game when running out the clock)
- Average 3rd down distance needed was 8.91 yards
- Average yards gained on 3rd down was 3.18 yards
- 2 for 4 on 3rd down for a 50% conversion rate
- All 4 attempts came via pass
- Average 3rd down distance needed was 6.25 yards
- Average yards gained on 3rd down was 10.0 yards
- 4 for 7 on 3rd down for a 57% conversion rate
- 6 of 7 attempts came via pass; converted 3 of those 6
- Average 3rd down distance needed was 7.43 yards
- Average yards gained on 3rd down was 4.43 yards
- 5 of 10 on 3rd down for a 50% conversion rate
- 2 of 6 in conversions via pass
- 3 of 4 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed was 5.20 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained was 3.30 yards
- 5 of 12 on 3rd down for a 42% conversion rate
- 4 of 10 in conversions via pass
- 1 of 2 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed was 7.00 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained was 4.83 yards
- 12 of 18 on 3rd down for a 67% conversion rate
- 8 of 14 in conversions via pass
- 4 of 4 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed was 6.33 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained was 5.39 yards
- 3 of 14 on 3rd down for a 21% conversion rate
- 2 of 11 in conversions via pass
- 1 of 3 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed was 8.21 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained was 1.21 yards
- 3 of 9 on 3rd down for a 33% conversion rate
- 1 of 5 in conversions via pass
- 2 of 4 in conversions via run (includes a very piss poor decision by Browning to keep it on a 3rd and short read option)
- Average 3rd down yardage needed was 4.33 yards (by far the lowest number of the season - should convert at a far higher % than 3 of 9 if average conversion in this range)
- Average 3rd down yards gained was 3.89 yards
- 5 of 9 on 3rd down for a 56% conversion rate
- 4 of 8 in conversions via pass
- 1 of 1 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed was 9.00 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained was 16.22 yards
- 2 of 8 on 3rd down for a 25% conversion rate
- 1 of 6 in conversions via pass
- 1 of 2 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed of 6.50 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained of 2.50 yards
- 6 of 12 on 3rd down for a 50% conversion rate
- 3 of 8 in conversions via pass
- 3 of 4 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed of 5.17 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained of 2.42 yards
- 2 of 9 on 3rd down for a 22% conversion rate
- 0 of 7 in conversions via pass
- 2 of 2 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed of 6.44 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained of 0.78 yards (that's comically bad)
- 8 of 15 on 3rd down for a 53% conversion rate
- 4 of 10 in conversions via pass
- 4 of 5 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed of 6.07 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained of 9.07 yards (includes the long Gaskin TD run and TD pass to Fuller)
Comments
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How do you motherfuckers got time for all this research and shit?
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Because if you know what/how to look for the data it doesn't take that long to summarize it … it actually took me longer to put the post together then it did for me to do the research
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Sad!!Tequilla said:Because if you know what/how to look for the data it doesn't take that long to summarize it … it actually took me longer to put the post together then it did for me to do the research
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Jk I actually love you
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Good stuff.
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He used the tools learned at TCU.skinned said:How do you motherfuckers got time for all this research and shit?
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Combine this with the defense’s untimely ability to not get off the field on 3rd down in crucial situations, made for a frustrating season
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He was born with this burden.Pitchfork51 said:
Sad!!Tequilla said:Because if you know what/how to look for the data it doesn't take that long to summarize it … it actually took me longer to put the post together then it did for me to do the research
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What was the distance to gain on the runs versus the passes?
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Good chit Teqboat.
I don't even understand maff and I can still see that running Gaskin on third down = good, and letting Shitstainsox throw on third down = terrible.
I am really happy Ngata made a decison so I can call Browning Shitstainsox again. We'd be better off on every third and long running a draw to Gaskin or just punting than letting that retard throw. -
Since you have the data, can you give a breakdown of run/pass% and sack% by ytg in your subset of 3rd downs? I don't know what the natural breaks are or sample size in different buckets but maybe 2 yard increments makes sense.
I suspect this will highlight 1) how "tricky" our play calling was and 2) how we know browning "performs" under pressure -
I'll take 'things everyone but Jonathan Smith already knows' for $100.
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Good chit
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This, we need to see the run/pass success % adjusted for ytg before resuming our regularly scheduled hate.Mad_Son said:Since you have the data, can you give a breakdown of run/pass% and sack% by ytg in your subset of 3rd downs?
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DisagreeTequilla said:It's been talked about dating back to last year regarding how pathetic the UW offense was on 3rd down ranging from Browning's play to Babushka's play calling. There's a very relevant NFL Films segment tied to Bart Starr and the Packers dating back to either Super Bowl I or II where it talks about the worth of a QB is how they perform on 3rd down … I think that that is particularly true. And in this regard, the data below becomes quite telling with respect to Browning. How bad was it? Let's take a look (note, I plan on doing a similar study on the Defense before the season):
METHODOLOGY- Includes all 3rd downs for drives started during first 3 quarters of games
- Includes any drive in the 4th quarter where the drive started with a margin of 3 scores or less
- The play call type is defined as what was actually called on a play (sacks and scrambles are considered passes)
- In the event that the 3rd down conversion was picked up via penalty, the original result of the play (sans penalty) was included in ALL stats (the penalties will be called out separately)
- UW had 138 3rd down attempts last year fitting the above criteria and converted 60 of them (before penalties) for a conversion rate of 43.5% (an additional 6 1st downs were picked up by penalty bringing the effective conversion rate up to 47.8%)
- The average 3rd down distance for UW was 6.69 yards; on average UW gained 4.96 yards on 3rd down
- Of the 138 attempts on 3rd down, UW called a pass play on 104 of those attempts, or 75.4% of the time
- Of those 104 pass attempts on 3rd down, UW converted at a 35.6% clip
- Of the 34 times UW ran the ball on 3rd down, the conversion rate was at a 67.6% clip
- Of the 67 times UW did not pick up a 1st down via throwing, 14 of those attempts resulted in sacks
- In total, UW allowed 20 sacks last year
Rutgers- 3 of 11 on 3rd down for a 27% conversion rate
- 3 of 9 conversion via pass
- 0 for 2 conversions via run (run attempts were early in the game on a 3rd and 19 and towards the end of the game when running out the clock)
- Average 3rd down distance needed was 8.91 yards
- Average yards gained on 3rd down was 3.18 yards
- 2 for 4 on 3rd down for a 50% conversion rate
- All 4 attempts came via pass
- Average 3rd down distance needed was 6.25 yards
- Average yards gained on 3rd down was 10.0 yards
- 4 for 7 on 3rd down for a 57% conversion rate
- 6 of 7 attempts came via pass; converted 3 of those 6
- Average 3rd down distance needed was 7.43 yards
- Average yards gained on 3rd down was 4.43 yards
- 5 of 10 on 3rd down for a 50% conversion rate
- 2 of 6 in conversions via pass
- 3 of 4 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed was 5.20 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained was 3.30 yards
- 5 of 12 on 3rd down for a 42% conversion rate
- 4 of 10 in conversions via pass
- 1 of 2 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed was 7.00 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained was 4.83 yards
- 12 of 18 on 3rd down for a 67% conversion rate
- 8 of 14 in conversions via pass
- 4 of 4 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed was 6.33 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained was 5.39 yards
- 3 of 14 on 3rd down for a 21% conversion rate
- 2 of 11 in conversions via pass
- 1 of 3 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed was 8.21 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained was 1.21 yards
- 3 of 9 on 3rd down for a 33% conversion rate
- 1 of 5 in conversions via pass
- 2 of 4 in conversions via run (includes a very piss poor decision by Browning to keep it on a 3rd and short read option)
- Average 3rd down yardage needed was 4.33 yards (by far the lowest number of the season - should convert at a far higher % than 3 of 9 if average conversion in this range)
- Average 3rd down yards gained was 3.89 yards
- 5 of 9 on 3rd down for a 56% conversion rate
- 4 of 8 in conversions via pass
- 1 of 1 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed was 9.00 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained was 16.22 yards
- 2 of 8 on 3rd down for a 25% conversion rate
- 1 of 6 in conversions via pass
- 1 of 2 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed of 6.50 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained of 2.50 yards
- 6 of 12 on 3rd down for a 50% conversion rate
- 3 of 8 in conversions via pass
- 3 of 4 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed of 5.17 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained of 2.42 yards
- 2 of 9 on 3rd down for a 22% conversion rate
- 0 of 7 in conversions via pass
- 2 of 2 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed of 6.44 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained of 0.78 yards (that's comically bad)
- 8 of 15 on 3rd down for a 53% conversion rate
- 4 of 10 in conversions via pass
- 4 of 5 in conversions via run
- Average 3rd down yardage needed of 6.07 yards
- Average 3rd down yards gained of 9.07 yards (includes the long Gaskin TD run and TD pass to Fuller)
- Includes all 3rd downs for drives started during first 3 quarters of games
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Here it is in table format for easier reading:
Game Conversions Conversion Rate Conversion via Pass Average 3rd Down Distance Average 3rd Down Gain Rutgers 3/11 27% 3/9 8.91 3.18 Montana 2/4 50% 2/4 6.25 10.0 Fresno St. 4/7 57% 3/6 7.43 4.43 Colorado 5/10 50% 2/6 5.20 3.30 Oregon St. 5/12 42% 4/10 7.00 4.83 Cal 12/18 67% 8/14 6.33 5.39 Arizona St. 3/14 21% 2/11 8.21 1.21 UCLA 3/9 33% 1/5 4.33 3.89 Oregon 5/9 56% 4/8 9.00 16.22 Stanford 2/8 25% 1/6 6.50 2.50 Utah 6/12 50% 3/8 5.17 2.42 Washington St. 2/9 22% 0/7 6.44 0.78 Penn St. 8/15 53% 4/10 6.07 9.07 -
To many numberswhatshouldicareabout said:Here it is in table format for easier reading:
Game Conversions Conversion Rate Conversion via Pass Average 3rd Down Distance Average 3rd Down Gain Rutgers 3/11 27% 3/9 8.91 3.18 Montana 2/4 50% 2/4 6.25 10.0 Fresno St. 4/7 57% 3/6 7.43 4.43 Colorado 5/10 50% 2/6 5.20 3.30 Oregon St. 5/12 42% 4/10 7.00 4.83 Cal 12/18 67% 8/14 6.33 5.39 Arizona St. 3/14 21% 2/11 8.21 1.21 UCLA 3/9 33% 1/5 4.33 3.89 Oregon 5/9 56% 4/8 9.00 16.22 Stanford 2/8 25% 1/6 6.50 2.50 Utah 6/12 50% 3/8 5.17 2.42 Washington St. 2/9 22% 0/7 6.44 0.78 Penn St. 8/15 53% 4/10 6.07 9.07 -
How did you put it in table format?
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avg gain on 3rd down vs. ASU... 1.2 yards
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Breaking the conversions based on distance type I broke into 3 categories:
Short Yardage: 3rd and 3 or less
Mid Yardage: 3rd and 4 to 3rd and 7
Long Yardage: 3rd and 8 or more
Short Yardage:- 28 of 36 for a conversion rate of 78%
- 15 of 36 of those conversions were pass plays (42% of our play calls were passes)
- Of those 15 pass plays, we converted on 9 of them (60% conversion rate)
- Of the 21 run attempts that we had in these situations, we converted on 19 of them
- 21 of 51 for a conversion rate of 41%
- 43 of 51 of those conversions were pass plays (84% of our play calls were passes)
- Of those 43 pass plays, 17 of them were converted (39.5% conversion rate)
- Of the 8 run attempts, 4 of those attempts were converted
- 11 of 51 for a conversion rate of 22%
- 46 of 51 conversions were pass plays (90% of the play calls)
- All 11 conversions were via pass (converted on 24% of the pass calls)
- The 5 attempts were largely throw away calls (3rd and 19 at Rutgers, 3rd and 9 at Colorado in 4th quarter up a bunch, 3rd and 26 at ASU, 3rd and 8 vs Utah, 3rd and 19 vs Pedo)
- 28 of 36 for a conversion rate of 78%
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One of the things that I thought would be worth looking into was what things looked like early in the season and late in the season using the ASU game as a time period where "things changed" with our offense … the results actually support that:
Season up to and including the ASU Game:
Short Yardage:- 14 of 18 for a conversion rate of 78%
- 10 of 18 of those conversions were pass plays (56% of our play calls were passes)
- Of those 10 pass plays, we converted on 6 of them (60% conversion rate)
- Of the 8 run attempts that we had in these situations, we converted all of them
- 11 of 28 for a conversion rate of 39%
- 23 of 28 of those conversions were pass plays (82% of our play calls were passes)
- Of those 23 pass plays, 9 of them were converted (39.1% conversion rate)
- Of the 5 run attempts, 2 of those attempts were converted
- 9 of 30 for a conversion rate of 30%
- 27 of 30 conversions were pass plays (90% of the play calls)
- All 9 conversions were via pass (converted on 33% of the pass calls)
- 14 of 18 for a conversion rate of 78%
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One of the things that I thought would be worth looking into was what things looked like early in the season and late in the season using the ASU game as a time period where "things changed" with our offense … the results actually support that:
Season after the ASU Game:
Short Yardage:- 14 of 18 for a conversion rate of 78%
- 5 of 18 of those attempts were pass plays (28% of our play calls were passes)
- Of those 5 pass plays, we converted on 3 of them (60% conversion rate)
- Of the 13 run attempts that we had in these situations, we converted 11 of them
- 10 of 23 for a conversion rate of 43.5%
- 20 of 23 of those attempts were pass plays (87% of our play calls were passes)
- Of those 20 pass plays, 8 of them were converted (40% conversion rate)
- Of the 3 run attempts, 2 of those attempts were converted
- 2 of 21 for a conversion rate of 9.5%
- 19 of 21 conversions were pass plays (90% of the play calls)
- All 2 conversions were via pass (converted on 10.5% of the pass calls)
- 14 of 18 for a conversion rate of 78%
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Regarding Sacks:
14 total sacks on 3rd down- 1 sack on short yardage situations (15 total pass attempts
- 7 sacks on mid yardage situations (43 total pass attempts)
- 6 sacks on long yardage situations (46 total pass attempts)
- 1 sack on short yardage situations (15 total pass attempts
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Definition of clutch … and to think that the 1.2 yards against ASU includes a 25 yard or so gain to Coleman on a play that was the definition of broken … it's just amazingly piss poor how bad the offensive performance was in that gameDerekJohnson said:avg gain on 3rd down vs. ASU... 1.2 yards
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A few things that stood out to me:
1) After the ASU game, at least in short yardage situation, there was an increased focus on running the ball
2) The play calling was heavy passing on anything outside of 3rd and 3 or less … that's an area where running the ball with more emphasis in both short- and mid-yardage situations could be an opportunity for improvement
3) Early down play calling is another area for major improvement as the balance of 3rd down conversions were mid- and long-yardage situations (short-yardage situations accounted for only 26% of our total 3rd down attempts)
4) A hallmark to me of Babushka's play calling was that he'd panic in situations where the offense got behind the chains trying to get too much of it back … to me that is a big factor in why the pass ratio was so high even though the numbers may not have supported the actual results
5) Browning takes sacks at a really high ratio on downs where he's forced to pass with distance. A lot of his weaknesses come out in these situations. This is also an issue that I suspect also plays out in looking at situations like throwing on 2nd and 9 or whatnot in that instead of taking the drop down pass to get a 4-6 yard gain getting in a much more favorable 3rd down situation he's much more likely to try to get it all back on 1 play and that then leaves these longer 3rd down situations.
6) Particularly after the ASU game, the WR/Bryant injuries combined with Browning's weaknesses basically turned 3rd and long into automatic punt situations
What does that mean for 2018 and the change from Babushka and Bush:
1) There's a lot of opportunity for Bush to come in and with some very small tweaks make some significant gains
2) We convert at a very high rate in 3rd and short situations … focusing the offense in a manner to ensure that we're playing to that strength is a huge win compared to Babushka … Babushka's offense (particularly last year) required the team to be picking up big chunks of yards … many scoring drives had limited, if any, 3rd down conversions. Particularly against good teams, 3rd down conversions are vital and will definitely be against Auburn. Getting into good down/distance situations will be important.
3) Being more willing to run the ball even in mid-yardage situations not only will take advantage of our best offensive players, will likely play better with what the stats/data tells us, but also potentially help the passing game in those situations. Because Babushka did not show a willingness to run, it made it much easier for defenses to drop behind the sticks and magnify Browning's inability to throw with relative anticipation given his lack of arm strength. Forcing defenses to better honor the run will potentially make those pass attempts a little easier for Browning
4) Playing to our team strengths (running game and defense) may result in some additional opportunities to take positive plays on 3rd and long on the ground versus risking disaster as Browning's yet to show a strong willingness on those situations to take say half the yardage and gain field position. Instead, it's more likely that he's going to run around trying to be Fran Tarkenton (he isn't) and take a negative play as looking at many of those sack situations they usually are coming not from our OL getting beat easily but more because of coverage and Browning holding the ball too long. Getting Browning to understand the internal clock and taking the drop down pass can also help. -
Hacks.Tequilla said:How did you put it in table format?
Or you can quote my post and see the HTML code. -
Overachiever
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It probably took less time than to write it out in your post. Just a lot of copy/paste.Tequilla said:Overachiever
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Looks like the gloves came off.
