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OFFICIAL: Mariners TSIO thread

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  • WilburHooksHandsWilburHooksHands Posts: 4,192
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    dnc said:

    dnc said:


    Why hasn't anyone pointed that out yet?!
    Im a big sabermetrics guy, M's fans are probably still phillistines talking about home runs and rbis.
    I'm also a big sabermetrics guy. Yes, the M's are playing over their heads. They are well constructed to win close games at an above average pace though (not the current pace obviously), and that run differential includes 44 AB's given to Ichiro which thankfully will not be hurting the team going forward.

    All that is to say the M's are better than their run differential. Though not as good as the Astros. But weird shit happens in baseball.
    They are good enough to make the playoffs, the central is dogshit.
    They're going to make the playoffs and then lose at the Yankees or Red Sox in the wild card play in game.

    #Script
    The top of the AL is just really fucking good this year.
    dncDeepDawgRoadDawg55backthepack
  • CuntWaffleCuntWaffle Posts: 15,974
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    They are obviously not catching the Astros and nor should they. The Astros are the best team in baseball. One game playoff anything can happen.
    dncRoadDawg55backthepack
  • WilburHooksHandsWilburHooksHands Posts: 4,192
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    They are obviously not catching the Astros and nor should they. The Astros are the best team in baseball. One game playoff anything can happen.

    Interesting article about their run differential today. I haven't really seen this angle on them yet:

    https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/6/19/17474200/astros-pythagorean-win-loss-modern-era
  • RoadDawg55RoadDawg55 Posts: 19,759
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    They are obviously not catching the Astros and nor should they. The Astros are the best team in baseball. One game playoff anything can happen.

    The Astros have crazy pitching. Their hitters are hitting below their normal level and they still are dominant because of their pitching.
  • WilburHooksHandsWilburHooksHands Posts: 4,192
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    Their hitters are hitting below their normal level

    It seems like it, but they still lead MLB in hits and runs.


  • dncdnc Posts: 36,688
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    They are obviously not catching the Astros and nor should they. The Astros are the best team in baseball. One game playoff anything can happen.

    Interesting article about their run differential today. I haven't really seen this angle on them yet:

    https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/6/19/17474200/astros-pythagorean-win-loss-modern-era
    Anytime you can share a list with the 2001 Mariners you have to feel good about yourselves!
    WilburHooksHandsbackthepack
  • WilburHooksHandsWilburHooksHands Posts: 4,192
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    dnc said:

    They are obviously not catching the Astros and nor should they. The Astros are the best team in baseball. One game playoff anything can happen.

    Interesting article about their run differential today. I haven't really seen this angle on them yet:

    https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/6/19/17474200/astros-pythagorean-win-loss-modern-era
    Anytime you can share a list with the 2001 Mariners you have to feel good about yourselves!
    I was going to set myself on fire after losing to Tampa last night but this brought be back from the brink.
    dnc
  • CuntWaffleCuntWaffle Posts: 15,974
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    Fuck you Colome and your 5 pitch walk you stupid fucking bitch
  • CirrhosisDawgCirrhosisDawg Posts: 2,286
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    They are obviously not catching the Astros and nor should they. The Astros are the best team in baseball. One game playoff anything can happen.

    “Anything can happen.” Mariners’ marketing campaign. 1980 or so. Fucking embarrassing. Another reminder of why if it wasn’t for KGJ the whole shit show would have Howard schultzed itself 30 years ago. I am quietly enjoying this run recognizing the all star break is forthcoming. It’s always the all star break...
    CuntWaffle
  • CuntWaffleCuntWaffle Posts: 15,974
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    They are obviously not catching the Astros and nor should they. The Astros are the best team in baseball. One game playoff anything can happen.

    “Anything can happen.” Mariners’ marketing campaign. 1980 or so. Fucking embarrassing. Another reminder of why if it wasn’t for KGJ the whole shit show would have Howard schultzed itself 30 years ago. I am quietly enjoying this run recognizing the all star break is forthcoming. It’s always the all star break...
    I really hate that this is happening right now because I know eventually they will shit their pants and lose 13-1 in the 1 game wildcard after being the hottest team at the end of the season or some bullshit like that.
    dncCirrhosisDawg
  • TequillaTequilla Posts: 14,269
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    Run differential is nice in theory but it's where you get square pegs and round holes to me.

    The Mariners (with the exception of Paxton) basically have a ton of SPs that are 5-6 inning guys and then they turn it over to a pen that since they brought on Colome has essentially 2 closers in it.

    I know that there's a logic that winning close games is a complete coin flip. I don't completely agree with that. When you purposely build a strong pen, I think it 1-run wins go from being less about luck and more about providing yourself the right pieces to do so. The mid-90 forward Yankees were really the first team that I thought really built their roster around this strategy and their record in 1-run games seemed to have a relatively constant thread to them:

    '96: 25-16
    '97: 23-16
    '98: 21-10
    '99: 22-12
    '00: 20-18
    '01: 30-18
    '02: 21-21
    '03: 22-14
    '04: 24-16
    '05: 27-16

    So far this year, the Mariners are 25-11 in 1-run games.

    So really, when you think about it, yes, they are perhaps a little better off than you might think but it's not really that out of line with what you'd expect out of a team that has built it's roster around winning close games. What IS strange with the Mariners is the pure number of close games that they play.

    It'd be a shock if they beat out the Astros for the Division but you never know with baseball … it's a funny game. I doubt the Mariners play .630 ball for the entire year and got to 100+ wins. But it wouldn't shock me if they ended up at 95+ wins at all given how their roster is constructed and how bad the AL is at large (nobody is trying to win). Moreover, I actually am willing to buy in that the strategy that they've built around the bullpen may actually be sustainable over the next couple of years.
  • DerekJohnsonDerekJohnson Posts: 20,048
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    They are obviously not catching the Astros and nor should they. The Astros are the best team in baseball. One game playoff anything can happen.

    Anything can happen.” Mariners’ marketing campaign. 1980 or so. Fucking embarrassing. Another reminder of why if it wasn’t for KGJ the whole shit show would have Howard schultzed itself 30 years ago. I am quietly enjoying this run recognizing the all star break is forthcoming. It’s always the all star break...
    I remember that. The M's finished something like 61-101
    CirrhosisDawgDeepSeaZ
  • dncdnc Posts: 36,688
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    dnc said:

    June will be a telling month. So far the Mariners have beat up a bunch of shitty teams. Now they get to play the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels in 4 of 5 series. If they can get through June playing .500 then it might be time to start thinking the drought could end.

    The bullpen is really good. A lot of power arms which is what you want. Adding Elias as a guy who can give you 3 to 4 innings if your starter shits the best is nice. Colome was a really good addition to have a set up guy.

    The rotation has been playing way better than expected (and will most likely cool off a bit). Leblanc will come back down to earth but Marco Gonzalez looks like he learned how to pitch in the majors finally. His breaking balls are nasty as long as he can frame them on the outside part of the plate. Felix will pitch better than he has been too, he won't be King Felix anymore but he could be a really solid #2/3 guy.

    The lineup is 1 bad injury away from being mediocre again which is the scary part. They are about middle of the pack as is so if you lose a Segura, Haniger, or Cruz then that is a problem. Segura has been incredible.

    I'm with you on most of this but Felix has no fucking chance of being a solid #2. I'd be thrilled if he's ever a solid #4 at this poont. At current pace he's not even going to be worth one win on the season.
    Felix still has a knee buckling circle change. One pitch that drops hot off the plate like that at the last second will always be devastating. His issue is that his ego tells him that he can gas it by people at 97 MPH still with his fastball. He use to be able to let it rip anywhere in the strike zone and fan guys, now he has to locate it and keep it low. I think he ends up the year sub 4 ERA when all said and done, Sunday was exactly what he needs to do every time out on the bump.
    bump
    greenblood
  • Mariners gonna Mariner.
    dnc
  • RaceBannonRaceBannon Posts: 32,820
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    My Angels put the beat down on them
  • RoadDawg55RoadDawg55 Posts: 19,759
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    Nice to see the M's implode right afternoon extending the GM and manager. The script.
    DeepDawgdnc
  • DeepDawgDeepDawg Posts: 71
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    Nice to see the M's implode right afternoon extending the GM and manager. The script.

    Water is wet
    dnc
  • CuntWaffleCuntWaffle Posts: 15,974
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    Once Nicasio gets his reads down things will get ugly quick.
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