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We "are getting killed on the trail" - UO vs UW commitment analysis

dnc
dnc Member Posts: 56,839


Let's dig a little deeper into this disturbing claim shall we?

Oregon has 11 incoming frosh commitments and UW has 9. Oregon has 7 incoming frosh (63.7%) who are currently rated 4 stars (via 247, which we will use throughout this analysis). UW has only 5 (55.6%). Each has a JUCO OL and Oregon's appears by all indications to be better, so advantage Oregon on that. But this analysis will look at kids who will have full eligibility upon arriving on campus (assuming everyone qualifies of course).

Oregon's 4 stars, position (national rank)
Mase Funa, OLB (I'm guessing he's an inside LB but whatever) (47)
Jeremiah Criddell, CB (76)
Mykael Wright, CB (95)
Sean Dollars, RB (120)
Josh Delgado, WR (191)
Jayvaun Wilson, ATH (301)
Patrick Herbert, WTE (313)

Washington's 4 stars, position (national rank)
Dylan Morris, QB (154)
Kamren Fabiculanan, CB (243)
Cameron Davis, RB (254)
Nathaniel Fuck BallzDeep Kalepo, OT (308)
Sama Paama, DT (329)

Off the top you notice Oregon has 4 kids rated higher than UW's top kid, and a fifth higher than UW's second. Advantage Oregon.

Let's go position by position:

QB: Cale Millen (3 *, 521) vs Dylan Morris (4*, 154)
No way to spin this as anything but a major UW victory unless you're a serious Quook.
Advantage: UW (large)

RB: Sean Dollars (4*, 120) vs Cameron Davis (4*, 254)
UW offered both Oregon only offered Dollars. UW clearly prioritized Davis. Oregon obviously prioritized Dollars. Based on rankings it's a win for Oregon but Dollars better be much faster than he timed at the Opening or this is a massive UW win. If we add Jayvaun Wilson (4*, 301) who might play on the other side of the ball it's a big win for Oregon. Unless a Duck fan talks me out of it I'm putting Wilson here since he seems more likely to play RB to me.
Advantage: Oregon

WR: Josh Delgado (4*, 191) and JR Waters (3*, 1034) vs Taj Davis (3*, 408)
UW kept pushing Delgado off and took Davis' commitment as soon as he was ready. Looks like both schools got the kid they wanted. UW DWJRWA.
Advantage: UW (Waters is a big anchor here)

TE: Patrick Herbert, (4*, 313) vs nobody
Once Herbert gets his reads down this thing will get ugly quick.
Advantage: Oregon (I doubt any UW fan really thinks we're getting one of the superior TE's we are currently in on)

OL: Nobody vs Nathaniel Kalepo (4*, 308)
Oregon clearly wanted Kalepo, offering him before UW did and pushing hard for his commit which they nearly got. But they didn't.
Advantage: UW

(Again, JUCO OL Oregon has the edge)

Offense - UW wins QB and OL, Oregon wins RB and TE, and gets the rankings win at WR.

DL: Keyon Ware Hudson (3* 550 [Composite 4 star]), Suaava Poti (3* 427) and Isaac Townsend (3* 377) vs Sama Paama (4*, 329) and Noa Ngalu (3*, 472)
UW offered Hudson. Oregon offered Paama. If I were confident in Paama's commit this would be a win for UW, but since it's a little shaky we'll call it a draw.
Advantage: Push

LB: Mase Funa (4*, 47) vs Alphonzo Tuputala (3*, 853) Miki Ah You (3*, 861)
Funa doesn't list a UW offer but considering he does list offers from USC, Oklahoma, ND, Texas and Florida State I'm going to assume we either didn't think we haswtg, or he just didn't bother listing our? offer. Either way, kid's a stud. Ah You lists an Oregon offer, Tuputala does not. UW is in on some big time LBs and may be able to close ground, but right now this is a big Oregon win.
Advantage: Oregon (large)

DB: Jeremiah Criddell (4*, 76), Mykael Wright (4*, 95) and Marques Caldwell (3* 694) vs Kamren Fabiculanan (4*, 243)
Criddell is rated higher but I think Wright is the bigger catch here, he tests very well whereas Criddell does not. I'd take either of them. Caldwell doesn't seem that impressive but UT is trying to make a run to keep him home so who knows? Fabiculanaananana is the next Jimmy Lake special. Oregon gets the big edge here but does anyone really think their DB class is going to look better in 2023? Not as long as the GOAT is on the UW sidelines.
Advantage: Oregon

After digging into it, Oregon's class is stronger than I expected but not where I expected. With Cristalballz I thought they'd be real strong up front but their frosh OL class is non existent and their DL class isn't special at this point despite allocating three schollies to it. It looks like another year of good to great skill players at everything but QB, but another year of falling behind UW at incoming QB talent can't be exciting for Quook nation. I like UW's chances of finding an underrated WTE to be just as good as Herbert redux if not better.

Will be interesting to see if UW can keep Paama and Oregon can keep Caldwell.

Obviously it's June 27 so LIFPO, just thought a position by position comparison would be chinteresting as we hit the dead period.

Assuming Crystoballz sticks around I would guess UO stays ahead of UW in the recruiting rankings this year but I don't think they'll continue to lead by 20 spots or so. And I definitely don't think Lake and Co are getting killed on the trail. Both schools seem to be getting their kind of kids. I like it.
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Comments

  • bananasnblondes
    bananasnblondes Member Posts: 15,509
    1 - Davis > Dollars
    2 - its fucking June
  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,839

    1 - Davis > Dollars
    2 - its fucking June

    1. I agree. Davis was the #2 RB on my bored (after Austin Jones who is on another level and before Charboner)

    2. "Obviously it's June 27 so LIFPO"

    hth

  • blackmamba
    blackmamba Member Posts: 184
    dnc said:





    WR: Josh Delgado (4*, 191) and JR Waters (3*, 1034) vs Taj Davis (3*, 408)
    UW kept pushing Delgado off and took Davis' commitment as soon as he was ready. Looks like both schools got the kid they wanted. UW DWJRWA.
    Advantage: UW (Waters is a big anchor here)


    DL: Keyon Ware Hudson (3* 550 [Composite 4 star]), Suaava Poti (3* 427) and Isaac Townsend (3* 377) vs Sama Paama (4*, 329) and Noa Ngalu (3*, 472)
    UW offered Hudson. Oregon offered Paama. If I were confident in Paama's commit this would be a win for UW, but since it's a little shaky we'll call it a draw.
    Advantage: Push

    Ridiculous analysis
  • dnc
    dnc Member Posts: 56,839

    dnc said:





    WR: Josh Delgado (4*, 191) and JR Waters (3*, 1034) vs Taj Davis (3*, 408)
    UW kept pushing Delgado off and took Davis' commitment as soon as he was ready. Looks like both schools got the kid they wanted. UW DWJRWA.
    Advantage: UW (Waters is a big anchor here)


    DL: Keyon Ware Hudson (3* 550 [Composite 4 star]), Suaava Poti (3* 427) and Isaac Townsend (3* 377) vs Sama Paama (4*, 329) and Noa Ngalu (3*, 472)
    UW offered Hudson. Oregon offered Paama. If I were confident in Paama's commit this would be a win for UW, but since it's a little shaky we'll call it a draw.
    Advantage: Push

    Ridiculous analysis
    Go on
  • whuggy
    whuggy Member Posts: 2,088
    So it basically comes down to Oregon has about 5-6 commits we would like to have and UW has about 5-6 commits
    Oregon would want. As always it comes down to how the class closes out.
  • blackmamba
    blackmamba Member Posts: 184
    dnc said:

    dnc said:





    WR: Josh Delgado (4*, 191) and JR Waters (3*, 1034) vs Taj Davis (3*, 408)
    UW kept pushing Delgado off and took Davis' commitment as soon as he was ready. Looks like both schools got the kid they wanted. UW DWJRWA.
    Advantage: UW (Waters is a big anchor here)


    DL: Keyon Ware Hudson (3* 550 [Composite 4 star]), Suaava Poti (3* 427) and Isaac Townsend (3* 377) vs Sama Paama (4*, 329) and Noa Ngalu (3*, 472)
    UW offered Hudson. Oregon offered Paama. If I were confident in Paama's commit this would be a win for UW, but since it's a little shaky we'll call it a draw.
    Advantage: Push

    Ridiculous analysis
    Go on
    Your data is way off, some of the bigger mistakes;

    Keyon Ware Hudson is a 4* and ranked nationally at 305 not 505
    Ngalu is 646 not 472

    Waters is ranked at 765 not 1034

    Point of showing this is the ridiculousness of drawing any sort of conclusions....


  • blackmamba
    blackmamba Member Posts: 184
    dnc said:

    dnc said:

    dnc said:





    WR: Josh Delgado (4*, 191) and JR Waters (3*, 1034) vs Taj Davis (3*, 408)
    UW kept pushing Delgado off and took Davis' commitment as soon as he was ready. Looks like both schools got the kid they wanted. UW DWJRWA.
    Advantage: UW (Waters is a big anchor here)


    DL: Keyon Ware Hudson (3* 550 [Composite 4 star]), Suaava Poti (3* 427) and Isaac Townsend (3* 377) vs Sama Paama (4*, 329) and Noa Ngalu (3*, 472)
    UW offered Hudson. Oregon offered Paama. If I were confident in Paama's commit this would be a win for UW, but since it's a little shaky we'll call it a draw.
    Advantage: Push

    Ridiculous analysis
    Go on
    Your data is way off, some of the bigger mistakes;

    Keyon Ware Hudson is a 4* and ranked nationally at 305 not 505
    Ngalu is 646 not 472

    Waters is ranked at 765 not 1034

    Point of showing this is the ridiculousness of drawing any sort of conclusions....


    You're using composite rankings, I'm using the actual 247 rankings (this was addressed in the post).

    Try again.
    Your numbers are all off...

    https://247sports.com/college/washington/Season/2019-Football/Commits/

  • FKA_Mousecop
    FKA_Mousecop Member Posts: 2,054

    dnc said:

    dnc said:

    dnc said:





    WR: Josh Delgado (4*, 191) and JR Waters (3*, 1034) vs Taj Davis (3*, 408)
    UW kept pushing Delgado off and took Davis' commitment as soon as he was ready. Looks like both schools got the kid they wanted. UW DWJRWA.
    Advantage: UW (Waters is a big anchor here)


    DL: Keyon Ware Hudson (3* 550 [Composite 4 star]), Suaava Poti (3* 427) and Isaac Townsend (3* 377) vs Sama Paama (4*, 329) and Noa Ngalu (3*, 472)
    UW offered Hudson. Oregon offered Paama. If I were confident in Paama's commit this would be a win for UW, but since it's a little shaky we'll call it a draw.
    Advantage: Push

    Ridiculous analysis
    Go on
    Your data is way off, some of the bigger mistakes;

    Keyon Ware Hudson is a 4* and ranked nationally at 305 not 505
    Ngalu is 646 not 472

    Waters is ranked at 765 not 1034

    Point of showing this is the ridiculousness of drawing any sort of conclusions....


    You're using composite rankings, I'm using the actual 247 rankings (this was addressed in the post).

    Try again.
    Your numbers are all off...

    https://247sports.com/college/washington/Season/2019-Football/Commits/

    You're still wrong. Those are the composite rankings. Go to the individual player page and it shows 247s ranking.
  • RaceBannon
    RaceBannon Member, Moderator, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 113,883 Founders Club
  • DoogCourics
    DoogCourics Member Posts: 5,739
    dnc said:



    DB: Jeremiah Criddell (4*, 76), Mykael Wright (4*, 95) and Marques Caldwell (3* 694) vs Kamren Fabiculanan (4*, 243)
    Criddell is rated higher but I think Wright is the bigger catch here, he tests very well whereas Criddell does not. I'd take either of them. Caldwell doesn't seem that impressive but UT is trying to make a run to keep him home so who knows? Fabiculanaananana is the next Jimmy Lake special. Oregon gets the big edge here but does anyone really think their DB class is going to look better in 2023? Not as long as the GOAT is on the UW sidelines.
    Advantage: Oregon




    Speaking of Quook site, take a look at this gem (it is in regards to Cameron Williams):



    DMV duck - Jun 26, 7:49 PM

    Yeah Jimmy Lake has been getting his ass kicked on the trail lately. The confidence level with him has to be really low right now. I'm sure Eklund and lil Kim already have the insider piece written up about how they didn't really want him.

    Kevin is right this is basically about trying to keep him away from usc.




    Resident HH Quooks, true?!?



  • IPukeOregonGrellow
    IPukeOregonGrellow Member Posts: 2,183
    AZDuck said:

    I'm still trying to translate that fucking wall of text into Swahili on my flip phone

    I want a complete rewrite taking the Caldwell decommitment into account.
  • Mosster47
    Mosster47 Member Posts: 6,246
    I hate these kind of write ups. In a 25 man class the most you will ever get are 10 kids that produce. Some will be highly rated and some will be kids you were pissed at the coaches for even recruiting.

    UW is doing a good job recruiting and developing. It's not elite by any stretch and won't be until they start beating some elite teams, which they have done none of since Peterman took over.

    Oregon is in a reset from the ground up. It's a complete LIPO.

    Anything outside of that is a waste of time.
  • UW_Doog_Bot
    UW_Doog_Bot Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 18,090 Founders Club
    edited June 2018
    Mosster47 said:

    I hate these kind of write ups. In a 25 man class the most you will ever get are 10 kids that produce. Some will be highly rated and some will be kids you were pissed at the coaches for even recruiting.

    UW is doing a good job recruiting and developing. It's not elite by any stretch and won't be until they start beating some elite teams, which they have done none of since Peterman took over.

    Oregon is in a reset from the ground up. It's a complete LIPO.

    Anything outside of that is a waste of time.

    sooner Herbert Oregon gets his studies under this point he will soon get it.