Early look at 2019 numbers

dnc said:

dnc said:

The esteemed TSIO hosts postulated early in this recruiting season that this could be a disappointing class for us thanks to the strengths of the class not lining up with our strengths (geographic and recruiters). 17 commits in, this might not be a monster class, but it is looking likely very good, with a shot at better if a few notables hop on bored down the stretch.

Obviously, some things have changed since their warning, perhaps most notably the hires of Matt Lubick and Scott Huff, who between them have brought in almost half of the real BRB, YO caliber talent in this class.

But the other chinteresting development, and the one I want to dig into just a bit here, is where this class is coming from. OTOH, traditionally Washington (like everyone else in the conference) has gotten at least 60% of its kids from California, roughly 30% from Washington and filled in 10% from Hawaii, Oregon, and the occasional kid from somewhere else.

This class looks different. A lot different. Of the 17 commits, here's where they come from:

Washington - 4 (Sirmon, Culp, Ale, Liu)
California - 3 (Newton, Osborne, Spiker)
Oregon - 2 (Bynum, Lowe)
Utah - 2 (Taimani, Tafisi)
Arizona - 2 (Mele, Hampton)
Hawaii - 1 (Zion)
Idaho - 1 Yankoff
Tennessee - 1 (Sirmon 2)
Texas - 1 (Curne)

As it currently stands, Washington recruits account for 23.5% of the class and California recruits account for only 17.6% (!). Combined, our two primary states make up 40.1% of the class.

81% of the time (probably more) that would be a death sentence for UW. But somehow we? have successfully expanded the footprint to put together a strong class despite a below average year for us in state and a WAY below average year for us in California. With no research to back this up I'd venture this is by far the fewest kids we've ever pulled from Cali, even if we finish with Tremblay, Irving and Tuliapupu (we won't).

While I would expect us? to do much better in Cali moving forward, the rise of the WAC states in UW recruiting is really fascinating, and seems to be more likely a trend than a blip. Arizona has become a state we consistently pluck a kid from under Pete, Utah had a historic class this year but we've now gotten 3 kids from there in 2 years, and Hawaii appears to be a priority state next class.

I don't know how much of this has to do with increasing talent from those states (particularly Utah and Arizona) and how much has to do with Petersen prioritizing them more/better than previous UW coaches, but it appears our recruiting footprint is expanding, and not just into the much discussed Texas.

Maybe hiring a coach who knew the WAC recruiting base wasn't so bad after all.

Fupdate

Washington - 4 (Sirmon, Culp, Ale, Liu)
California - 3 (Newton, Osborne, Spiker)
Oregon - 2 (Bynum, Lowe)
Utah - 2 (Taimani, Tafisi)
Arizona - 2 (Mele, Hampton)
Hawaii - 1 (Zion)
Idaho - 1 Yankoff
Tennessee - 1 (Sirmon 2)
Texas - 1 (Curne)
Nevada - 1 (Kaho)

Washington at 22.2%, Cali at 16.7%

Final fupdate:

Washington - 5 (Sirmon, Culp, Ale, Liu, Gordon)
California - 5 (Newton, Osborne, Spiker, Irvin, Tuli)
Oregon - 2 (Bynum, Lowe)
Utah - 2 (Taimani, Tafisi)
Arizona - 2 (Mele, Hampton)
Hawaii - 1 (Zion)
Idaho - 1 Yankoff
Tennessee - 1 (Sirmon 2)
Texas - 1 (Curne)
Nevada - 1 (Kaho)

Washington and Cali both at 23.8%, for a total of 47.6% of the class from our two core states.

I highly doubt we've ever gone below 50% aggregate from those two states before. Chinteresting shit.

Notable - our first three commits for 2019 are all Washington (2) and Cali (1), and it appears we have a strong start on a number of other Cali kids (Ngata, Criddel, Austin Jones, Sean Dollars). We also seem to be hitting Hawaii a lot harder for 2019 than ever in the Pete era.

This next class could look a lot more like a DJ or even RN class geographically.

Murphy hasn’t done shit yet. You can see the talent but he is small for the nfl currently. Didn’t look great after the injury. I think he is here at least 2 more seasons.

Swaye said:

dnc said:

Dennis_DeYoung said:

Murphy has a kid and played lights out after the Stanford game. He gone.

Didn't realize he had a kid. That changes the calculus a bit.

Da fuq is a calculus?

I believe it's one of the toys Murphy's kid plays with, maybe I got it mixed up with something.

@Dennis_DeYoung do you expect UW to offer Justus Legg, Darien Chase or any other WA players for the 2019 class anytime soon?

New title "The USC future leftover initiative"

Dennis_DeYoung said:

Murphy has a kid and played lights out after the Stanford game. He gone.

Murphy fucks

Fear_Boner said:

Jordan Miller fucks too.

Losing him might have been the biggest blow of the ASU game. With him I think we beat Stanford. Fuck JJ Arcega-Whiteside.