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The "balance" fallacy.

TTJTTJ Member Posts: 4,827
in Hardcore Husky Board
If you just looked at the 2017 season stats, you might assume UW had a pretty "balanced" offense:
  • Avg attempts/gm: 26.8 passes, 36.4 runs.
  • Avg yards/gm: 222.2 yds passing, 183.2 yds rushing.
Of course, anybody with a middle school education who actually watched the games knows that's a load of horseshit. UW's running game feasted on some weak opponents. But at the first sign of resistance (think SC '16, Bammer '16, PedoSt '17), UW panicked, gave up on the run, and over-relied on Browning's noodle arm.

This shit simply has to change. Looking "balanced" against a Cal or an Arizona merely means your running game isn't actually very good. To be truly "balanced" (~50/50) against the top defenses, your running game needs to be so dominant that it utterly steamrolls (~80/20) everybody else. This requires an identity of stubborn, relentless commitment to the ground game, even when it's not working initially. Your linemen have to believe they can grind it out. And they have to trust the coaches not to abandon ship after a couple early three-and-outs.

It can be achieved, and this offseason is the time. UW certainly has the offensive personnel to play a B1G style (including the obligatory shitty QB). Doogs only remember the trick plays and Kellen Moore, but most of Petersen's BSU teams were actually run-first savages. With UW's recent change at OC, spring is the perfect time to roll out a new, run-first tenacity. It just has to happen, for this team to ever win CFBPO or NY6 type games.
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Comments

  • Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 27,645
    It's all downhill after Smith.
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  • BaldwinIVBaldwinIV Member Posts: 797
    I still hate Johnathan Smith so, so much. Fuck him. Surreal he's gone.
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  • JaWarrenJaHookerJaWarrenJaHooker Member Posts: 2,119
    Passing every down is cooler tho brah
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  • AIRWOLFAIRWOLF Member Posts: 1,840
    "To be truly "balanced" (~50/50) against the top defenses, your running game needs to be so dominant that it utterly steamrolls (~80/20) everybody else. This requires an identity of stubborn, relentless commitment to the ground game, even when it's not working initially."

    Not trying to argue effectiveness of various offensive approaches here, but what you are describing above isn't "balanced".
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  • dncdnc Member Posts: 56,827
    Pitchfork51 said:

    How long does it take for you guys to figure out it's not Smith, it's Peterman


    I say 5 plays.

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  • Pitchfork51Pitchfork51 Member Posts: 27,645
    edited January 2018
    dnc said:

    Pitchfork51 said:

    How long does it take for you guys to figure out it's not Smith, it's Peterman


    I say 5 plays.

    Pass run pass punt?

    Auburn will never know what hit them!
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  • AIRWOLFAIRWOLF Member Posts: 1,840
    ToddTurnerLIVES said:

    I'm still a little scared that the inner-QB in Bush Hamdan is going to want to chuck the ball around a little too much the same way Jonny Boy did. Hopefully a year of watching Sark flounder and fuck things up will reinforce the need to keep it simple and just run the fucking ball.

    I think (or hope) that Hamdan is clear-eyed enough to realize that Browning is nothing but a game manager. The fact that Hamdan didn't recruit him (and the apparent fact that Bush isn't FS) gives me some hope on that.
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  • KaepskneeKaepsknee Member Posts: 14,913
    TTJ said:

    If you just looked at the 2017 season stats, you might assume UW had a pretty "balanced" offense:

    • Avg attempts/gm: 26.8 passes, 36.4 runs.
    • Avg yards/gm: 222.2 yds passing, 183.2 yds rushing.
    Of course, anybody with a middle school education who actually watched the games knows that's a load of horseshit. UW's running game feasted on some weak opponents. But at the first sign of resistance (think SC '16, Bammer '16, PedoSt '17), UW panicked, gave up on the run, and over-relied on Browning's noodle arm.

    This shit simply has to change. Looking "balanced" against a Cal or an Arizona merely means your running game isn't actually very good. To be truly "balanced" (~50/50) against the top defenses, your running game needs to be so dominant that it utterly steamrolls (~80/20) everybody else. This requires an identity of stubborn, relentless commitment to the ground game, even when it's not working initially. Your linemen have to believe they can grind it out. And they have to trust the coaches not to abandon ship after a couple early three-and-outs.

    It can be achieved, and this offseason is the time. UW certainly has the offensive personnel to play a B1G style (including the obligatory shitty QB). Doogs only remember the trick plays and Kellen Moore, but most of Petersen's BSU teams were actually run-first savages. With UW's recent change at OC, spring is the perfect time to roll out a new, run-first tenacity. It just has to happen, for this team to ever win CFBPO or NY6 type games.
    Kreist Rinse. Lather. Repeat

    You were down 28-7 and 35-14 against Penn St. But yeah I'm sure the ol 3 yards and a cloud of dust would have brought you back.

    You are a good Pac 12 team but the Pac 12 sucks. So therefore, you're just an above average team on the National stage. Your record against teams with winning records is pedestrian at best these last 2 Seasons. You can blame Babushka all you want, but it doesn't change that. Next year it will all be Hamdens fault and then after that.....

    Just face it, you're a good team but not great. You're good enough to get to a NY6 Bowl but not good enough to win one. Nothing changes anytime soon there.
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  • TTJTTJ Member Posts: 4,827
    AIRWOLF said:

    Not trying to argue effectiveness of various offensive approaches here, but what you are describing above isn't "balanced".

    Executive summary: Achieving "balance" (~50/50) against the big boys requires a running game so dominant that it steamrolls (~80/20) everybody else. Instilling that requires a concerted, season-long effort.
    GreenRiverGatorz said:

    Our play selection and "balance" is really not the problem. If you think you can go up against teams like Bama and just run the ball down their throat, you're going to get the annual result that LSU gets against them.

    Again, I'm not advocating for an 80/20 approach against the Bammers. The goal in those games should be ~50/50. Instead, what we've seen against the big boys is closer to a 20/80 approach, which IMO is a big problem.
    GreenRiverGatorz said:

    We don't currently have a quarterback we can fall back on to make the kind of plays that you need to beat a team that has a defense littered with first rounders who came out of the womb at 6-5 320. Until we have a guy who can actually take over a game against those kinds of teams, you can expect more of the same.

    I don't disagree at all. UW isn't going to win the CFBPOs in 2018 with Browning at QB. But I do think Browning would be most effective if used as a game manager in a run-first offense. I actually think he'd shine in that limited role.
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  • dncdnc Member Posts: 56,827
    You're not going to have an effective passing game when you have to throw it 50 percent against the big boys if you throw it 20 percent against everybody else.
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  • UW_Doog_BotUW_Doog_Bot Member Posts: 17,901
    salemcoog said:

    TTJ said:

    If you just looked at the 2017 season stats, you might assume UW had a pretty "balanced" offense:

    • Avg attempts/gm: 26.8 passes, 36.4 runs.
    • Avg yards/gm: 222.2 yds passing, 183.2 yds rushing.
    Of course, anybody with a middle school education who actually watched the games knows that's a load of horseshit. UW's running game feasted on some weak opponents. But at the first sign of resistance (think SC '16, Bammer '16, PedoSt '17), UW panicked, gave up on the run, and over-relied on Browning's noodle arm.

    This shit simply has to change. Looking "balanced" against a Cal or an Arizona merely means your running game isn't actually very good. To be truly "balanced" (~50/50) against the top defenses, your running game needs to be so dominant that it utterly steamrolls (~80/20) everybody else. This requires an identity of stubborn, relentless commitment to the ground game, even when it's not working initially. Your linemen have to believe they can grind it out. And they have to trust the coaches not to abandon ship after a couple early three-and-outs.

    It can be achieved, and this offseason is the time. UW certainly has the offensive personnel to play a B1G style (including the obligatory shitty QB). Doogs only remember the trick plays and Kellen Moore, but most of Petersen's BSU teams were actually run-first savages. With UW's recent change at OC, spring is the perfect time to roll out a new, run-first tenacity. It just has to happen, for this team to ever win CFBPO or NY6 type games.
    Kreist Rinse. Lather. Repeat

    You were down 28-7 and 35-14 against Penn St. But yeah I'm sure the ol 3 yards and a cloud of dust would have brought you back.

    You are a good Pac 12 team but the Pac 12 sucks. So therefore, you're just an above average team on the National stage. Your record against teams with winning records is pedestrian at best these last 2 Seasons. You can blame Babushka all you want, but it doesn't change that. Next year it will all be Hamdens fault and then after that.....

    Just face it, you're a good team but not great. You're good enough to get to a NY6 Bowl but not good enough to win one. Nothing changes anytime soon there.
    Cuog take. Cuog expectations. Our recruiting has had holes but is still improving. Our national perception as a program is also miles ahead of where it was when we won the Heart of Dallas Bowel. I think 2016 was an anomaly in that lots of the Pac was down and we overachieved but the overall trend is still up and not down.
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  • AIRWOLFAIRWOLF Member Posts: 1,840
    TTJ said:

    AIRWOLF said:

    Not trying to argue effectiveness of various offensive approaches here, but what you are describing above isn't "balanced".

    Executive summary: Achieving "balance" (~50/50) against the big boys requires a running game so dominant that it steamrolls (~80/20) everybody else. Instilling that requires a concerted, season-long effort.
    Again, having balance doesn't require yardage totals (or play call mix, for that matter) being exactly equal. I mean, maybe it does to you, but seeking to achieve that degree of balance is pointless.
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  • 2001400ex2001400ex Member Posts: 29,457
    Balance is often a product of being ahead in the game, or behind causes you to throw the ball more (except for FS Bevell). That being said, take what the defense gives you. Sometimes you have to throw the ball to setup the run. But focus on short quick passes like Brady and Brees do. And an offensive scheme to get them open with pick plays and shit. If they are selling out to stop the run, the middle of the field should be open.
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