Title odds

Tequilla said:

To @dnc

Here's why I disagree with you that UW should be viewed as having Top 3 relative odds in this year's preseason national title odds ... start by looking around the conferences. There won't be a non-P5 school that gets into the top 4 and Notre Dame is more likely to fire Brian Kelly than get in the Top 4. So that's likely going to come down to 4 P5 conference winners ...

SEC

Alabama is the clear favorite despite all of their losses as they reload. I'll believe Auburn when I see them although getting a transfer QB from Baylor may give them more of a passing game ... but Baylor QBs kind of suck. LSU is a QB away from being able to even think of beating Alabama and Ed O isn't in the same area code as Saban as a coach. Nobody in the East is worth a shit.

ACC

Florida State should be in the best pre-season position but they open with Alabama ... so that's going to likely immediately take either their or Bama's margin of error away. They should be able to run through the ACC (it will be down versus last year) but there are still challenging games against both Louisville and at Clemson to contend with. Francois needs to take another step to not be in a potential upset situation. Clemson likely loses too much to get through unscathed as a 4 week streak where they play Auburn, at Louisville, and at Virginia Tech will probably result in a loss. Louisville is a dark horse contender but their non-conference schedule isn't worth a damn and they are out of the picture if they get to 2 losses.

Big 10

Many are going to peg Ohio State as #1 or #2 preseason. JT Barrett is still their QB which puts them in a bad position (until proven otherwise) against any team that defensively can force them to throw the football. An early season game against Oklahoma burdens somebody with a loss and starts reducing their margin of error. The schedule also includes a tricky 3 week stretch late in the season where they play at Nebraska, home to Penn St, and at Iowa. Then they have the trip to Michigan. Pedo State has a game against Pitt that they should win easily before they enter their difficult portion of the schedule with a 4 game stretch of at Northwestern, Michigan, at Ohio State, and at Michigan St. They should cruise the rest of the way. Michigan opens with Florida, has a trip to Pedo State, and a closing 2 game stretch of at Wisconsin and home to Ohio State. I don't see any of the 3 teams in the East getting through the conference undefeated ... which likely means that the winner is looking at 10-2 plus a conference title game. Wisconsin is the team to look out for as their non-conference schedule is pretty easy (toughest game is at BYU), they play in the West (which generally sucks), miss Pedo & Ohio State, and get Michigan at home. The real risk is that Wisconsin gets through 11-1 or 12-0, is massively over ranked, and gives up a massive resume boosting win.

Big 12

I think that there's going to be a very good chance that the Big 12's depth this year is going to be stout. I don't think Oklahoma (or anybody else) is going to get through the league at 9-0 this year. 8-1 would be pretty good. So at that point, you're looking at needing to get through the non-conference schedule undefeated to be assured of being in. Oklahoma has the game at Ohio State (likely losing that game). Okie State should be ok playing at Pitt against Max Browne or whoever Pitt has ... but still a tricky game. West Virginia could be just as good as last year and starts with Va Tech. KState will likely be pretty good but plays nobody OOC ... so their margin for error gets that much smaller. TCU will be better but has to go to Arkansas. Texas should get a bump but has to travel to USC. That's 6 of the 10 teams that I expect to be varying forms of good and then with the Big 12 having a title game this year, that's another possible loss. I could see a 11-2 team getting in ...

PAC 12

USC's non-conference schedule includes both Notre Dame and Texas. They miss UW but will likely see them for the PAC12 title. But they'll win the South and should be able to get through their schedule with no more than 2 losses. If they do that and win the conference they'll be in. Problem is that they have to beat Washington to do that. The OOC is a layup drill. I'm not sure that we'll go 9-0 in conference but fairly sure that we won't go 7-2 in conference. An 11-1 regular season with a victory in the PAC12 title game over USC will be enough to get in considering that I think it's very likely that I think it is likely that 3 of the other 4 conference winners will have 2 or more losses.

So really, the bet for UW comes down to the following:

1) What are the odds that UW will beat USC?

2) Let's assume that the Final Four (in order) is Alabama, Ohio State, Washington, and Oklahoma ... what are the odds that UW beats Ohio State? Alabama? Oklahoma?

To me, I'll say it's no worse than 50/50 that we'll beat USC ... and to be conservative, I'll say 40% to beat Ohio State (I don't trust any Big 10 team), 25% to beat Alabama, and 50% to beat Oklahoma.

That puts the odds of winning the national championship as follows:

USC-Ohio State-Alabama route: 50% x 40% x 20% = 5%
USC-Ohio State-Oklahoma route: 50% x 40% x 50% = 10%

Depending on how you tweak the percentages obviously the likelihood of winning the title shifts. But one of the reasons that I put UW higher than most is that the path for them to be in the playoffs is much cleaner. The only cleaner route to me is Alabama as they will be in as long as they win the SEC and have 2 or fewer losses (barring all the other 4 conference winners having 0-1 losses). Florida St, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Ohio State will total 2 losses just because they play each other. The concentration of teams in the Big 10 East will make it hard for anybody to get through at 9-0 in conference. The title game in the Big 12 plus what should be a relative up year there will result in losses accumulating. There's a decided question mark of who will win the Big 10 and Big 12 ... it's far from a certainty. There's a path for more teams in the ACC than the PAC12 ... and perhaps more importantly the teams in the ACC are all accumulated in the same division ... so lose the division and you don't have a chance to win the conference.

You can't win the National Championship if you don't get into the Final Four ... and I have a hard time coming up with teams that are more likely than UW to be there in the end.