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2018 Recruiting Class Update

Member Posts: 56,839
in The Fisching Hole (Recruiting)
With two commits in just a couple days I thought some might enjoy a look at where we are currently at. With 5 teen bois in on an expected 18ish member class, we're over 25% of the way there (and I feel very good about keeping all 5 kids on bored). So far we're offense heavy with 4 expected offensive players and just one on defense at this point. We also have moved away this week from a white power class to one DDY can take some pride in.

QB - Jacob Sirmon: Scout 4 star (44 overall)/Rivals 4 star (67 overall)/ESPN 4 star (16 overall)/24 4 star (28 overall). Average = 4 star (38.75 overall)
WR1a -Austin Osbourne: Scout 4 star (105 overall)/Rivals 4 star (142 overall)/ESPN 4 star (205 overall)/247 4 star (197 overall). Average = 4 star (162.25 overall)
WR1b - Marquis Spiker: Scout 4 star (87 overall)/Rivals 4 star (104 overall)/ESPN 4 star (91 overall)/247 4 star (82 overall). Average = 4 star (90 overall)
Slot receiver - Trey Lowe (tend to agree with the TSIO guys that he ends up at RB but for now he's being told he's going to play the Chico role and other recruits are being told he's recruited as a WR): Scout 4 star (259 overall)/ Rivals 4 star (230 overall)/ESPN not rated/247 4 star (106 overall). Average = 4 stars (205.8 overall) (on the 3 sites who rank him)
LB - Jackson Sirmon Scout 3 star (unranked)/Rivals 3 star (unranked)/ESPN 3 star (254 overall)/247 4 star (177 overall). Average = 3.25 stars (can't compute overall average with him unranked on half the sites)

Scout and Rivals agree that these guys rank Jake S, Spiker, Osbourne, Lowe, Jack S. ESPN bumps Jack ahead of Lowe. And 247 is the total outlier with their order being Jake S, Spiker, Lowe, Jack S, Osbourne.

This is a great start on a great class. Ultimately I think Jacob Sirmon ends up a 5 star on most sites, with everyone else solid 4 stars besides Jackson. So 1 5 star, 3 4 stars and a 3 star, for a solid 4 star average from these five. Obviously there will be surprises, but here's what I roughly expect to see for the next 13 spots:

QB - none
RB - TreShaun Harrison (also could play safety, or corner)
WR - Michael Wilson
BTE - Devon Culp (ultimately I don't think they take Ezeike and Wilson, and I think Wilson's more likely to commit so I went with him)
WTE - Jake Peters. Guessing his rehab checks out and he moves back up to a 4 star TE.
OL - I'm guessing we take 3 since it's a down year on the WC. Would love Dawson Jaramillo, Justin Dedich and Steven Jones but that's highly unlikely. I'll say Lubick wins over Jaramillo, Huff pulls Chris Murray and we settle for MJ Ale. This wouldn't be a home run but would be a really strong OL class.

That's 11 total recruits on offense which might be one or two too high, but if Harrison or Lowe ends up on defense you're probably fine .

The defensive side is a lot fuzzier for me. Not real confident in most of these calls to follow.

CB - Kyler Gordon becomes my biggest non OL desire in this class. I think he's really important, and they ultimately get him on bored, but probably not until deep into football season. Looks like one of the last two or three commits to me. I'll also predict Braden Lenzy flips to us after Brian Kelly gets fired.
S - Bryan Addison. Really want this kid.
LB - I think we go hard after Jack Lamb but end up settling for Ben Wilson. We'll take one more LB in this class, he'll probably be poly and from Utah, but I have no idea which one.
Buck - Zion Tupuola-Fetui. Learn it. Love it.
DL - We wont' get Togiai unfortunately unless SC self destructs, which I don't see happening until after Darnold goes pro. If Darnold gets hurt early enough Togiai is ours. But that's unlikely, and I don't see a home run DT in the class for us outside of him, so let's say we'll settle for two other Polys here Sam Vakalahi for one and let's hope Hale Motu'apuaka passes the height test for the other.

Obviously this will be mostly wrong, and I cheated and took one more than I aimed for to give us a class of 19. Maybe one of the Utah kids takes a mission. Of those 19, that would be 11 current Scout 4 stars (and I'm guessing at least Peters and Murray will move up).

So yeah that's not all going to come together but I think we get to 10 four stars rather easily. I wouldn't be shocked if this class has 12 or 13. The recruiting lag is real and Petersen is building a monster.
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Comments

  • Member, Swaye's Wigwam Posts: 8,346 Founders Club
    Serious question @Dennis_DeYoung, is this Sirmon kid mentally and physically tough enough to deserve the high ranking? Not to knock Browning, the kid gives it his all, but this team might have beat Bama and Clemson with a slobber knocking Billy Joe Hobert type under center. IMO, that is what they need to get over the top. Is Sirmon potentially that guy?
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  • Member Posts: 20,098
    I agree that we get Lamb ... it's a numbers thing ... lucky us
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  • Member Posts: 20,098
    Harrison needs to embrace being a Milliy clone at S and having a 15 year NFL career ... you just don't teach what he has from size/speed/skill

    Lowe is likely a RB ... but if they are telling him WR then they are done at WR for this class

    Cult and Peters are the haul at TE and that's boner inducing ...

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  • Member Posts: 20,098
    OL/DL/OLB will be the big questions in this class as mentioned ...

    Results here would put this class at another level ...

    We'll learn a bit about Malloe and Huff after this year ... IF they deliver @CokeGreaterThanPepsi should go to the glory hole located at the bathroom of the 7-11 on Aurora
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  • Member Posts: 20,098
    Lake is the other wild card with the secondary ... I'm cautiously optimistic
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  • Member Posts: 20,098
    I expect all that we have at this point will end up 4 star plus with at least 2 as 5 stars
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  • Member Posts: 13,326
    It's twitter tequilla. Still manage to write 5 paragraphs but do it consecutive poasts rather than all at once
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  • Member Posts: 24
    edited March 2017
    Tequilla said:

    I agree that we get Lamb ... it's a numbers thing ... lucky us

    Probably, but watch out for if Penn State offers. Both Lamb's parents went there, so there is a good chance he would strongly consider them.
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  • Member Posts: 7,113
    24/7 lists Simon as a 5 star.
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  • Member Posts: 56,839
    UWhuskytskeet said:

    24/7 lists Simon as a 5 star.

    In their composite rankings. But in their actual 24/7 rankings he's a 4.

    Also *Sirmon
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  • Member Posts: 7,113
    dnc said:

    show previous quotes
    In their composite rankings. But in their actual 24/7 rankings he's a 4.

    Also *Sirmon
    Ah didn't catch that. Weird that s composite of 4 stars makes a five star.
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  • Member Posts: 56,839
    UWhuskytskeet said:

    show previous quotes
    Ah didn't catch that. Weird that s composite of 4 stars makes a five star.
    They're obviously using some more obscure rankings in there as well
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  • Member Posts: 3,795
    dnc said:

    show previous quotes
    They're obviously using some more obscure rankings in there as well
    247 themselves has only given 7 kids a 5* ranking, but 26 are composite 5*. The composite must work in some way where they aggregate the overall rankings and then rank the kids by that... then give out 5* to a set number of kids.
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  • Member Posts: 7,646
    AH92 said:

    show previous quotes
    Probably, but watch out for if Penn State offers. Both Lamb's parents went there, so there is a good chance he would strongly consider them.
    The twitter handle for one of Lamb's Dad is "nittanylambs", so yeah, Penn State will be tuff to beat.
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  • Member Posts: 20,098
    edited April 2017
    @dnc

    I think we're seeing a couple of things here (per your latest series of posts) ...

    1) Whether it was Pepsi/Dennis predicting 6 4-stars or higher or my call of 8, we were looking at what our needs in the class were with what was available on the West Coast and the needs/matches didn't really match up well ... it caused us to be a bit pessimistic in general

    2) We got 2 commits so far (Yankoff and Lowe) that we really didn't have any expectation of getting for a couple of reasons ... for Yankoff, we really weren't thinking 2 top end QBs were in play (whether we would take 2 QBs in this class was debatable ... Dennis may go find a 1970 Plymouth Superbird and finish the job if I mention the need for 2 QBs because of Jake Haener again ... Haener Haener Haener) ... for Lowe, the primary link was Lubick and we had just hired him on prior to making the prediction ... simply put he wasn't on the radar as being realistic and a miss on our end ... things are fluid in recruiting ... there will be ups and downs ... blah blah blah

    3) The biggest variable in recruiting this year that we didn't really know what the impact would be comes in the form of how much of a bump do we get from the 2016 season with recruiting. Because of the needs/matches of the class, we didn't anticipate really getting that bump until next year and in the 2019 class. Instead, it looks like we're starting to see it in the 2018 class. There's still a long way to go and the reality is that at this point we've largely gotten the guys we expected to get in this class (outside of Yankoff and Lowe ... and there's always the potential that Sirmon could leave so in that case Yankoff/Sirmon is essentially a zero sum swap). For us to get 10+ 4-stars, that means we're going to have to have done some good work on both sides of the line ...

    4) Probably the last part of the pessimism that we had for the class was that we took a "prove it" to us stance with both Huff and Malloe ... Malloe's 2017 recruiting class performance was a borderline disaster. Huff's coming over from Boise and how quickly he can get up to speed with the P12 recruiting wars is a complete unknown. There could be some room for optimism in 2018 given that USC's massive 2017 haul could make the depth chart more attractive at UW for 2018 kids. The OL targets on the West Coast this year is a concern and we'll see where we end up there ... getting on MJ Ale in the Spring period compared to waiting until really late like we did in year's past under Strausser probably puts us in a pretty good position to get him before he decides to go elsewhere. It Jaxon Kirkland wasn't a legacy recruit last year, there's a good chance that we would have lost him given how we offered late.

    In your list above, what I see us taking:

    1) I do think we'll ultimately take 2 QBs in this class and it will be Sirmon and Yankoff ... without trying to steal @Dennis_DeYoung caliber thunder, but in TSIO sexting conversations both Dennis and I can envision scenarios where it is harder for him to LEAVE UW and go elsewhere than it is for him to stay ... that's probably contrary to popular belief.

    2) Where Lowe ultimately fits in our offense is TBD and how many guys that we take in a class will also be fluid. I'm sure we'll take one more RB ... this is an area to watch how the Spring goes as both McGrew and Pleasant have been in the reports so far for their fumbling. Remember that in 2016 Gaskin/Coleman did not have a single fumble (not lost, but fumble period).

    3) Assuming that Jake Peters is 100% recovered and healthy ... which we'll see during some summer camps and probably during the first handful of games during his senior year, we'll take him. If it wasn't for the injury, we probably would have already confirmed on both ends.

    4) The OL is the major question mark offensively ... as stated earlier, getting on Ale in the Spring will help us here. Securing an in-state OL will be one of the first major tests for Huff. At this point, I'm cautiously optimistic here.

    5) On the DL, we're getting a lot of names up here so that's encouraging. Until Malloe closes on and gets some high end DL prospects to put their name on a LOI I'm not going to predict anything here.

    6) We're not going to get Jack Lamb ... he's going to Pedo State. We will end up with 1-2 more good LBs outside of Sirmon ... we are so deep at this position right now that we should be very selective at who we take in this class at this position. If they don't fall in the category of rare and special we don't want them.

    7) The DB class is going to be the last major question mark we have ... on one hand, as long as we have Jimmy Lake on staff we're going to be in great shape to get a great class. On the other, we know he's leaving sooner or later and how that gets used against us is an issue ... and we were cautious in our predictions of the talent that we'll get here as a result. I think we'll get Harrison to play S (which is a priority to me ... he's got a chance to be very special). What else we'll get is one thing ... what we hold onto is another because if Lake leaves he's likely going to be staying somewhere in the conference. What we need to look for here is how many can we get on board and secured during the new early signing day period BEFORE the potential for Lake leaving becomes a reality. Worst case scenario is that we don't get many signed on the early signing day, UCLA tanks, Mora gets fired, UCLA hires Lake, and we lose the balance of our DB class to UCLA as they follow Lake.
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  • Member Posts: 5,999
    Jimmy Lake isn't going in-conference if/when he does leave...he's going to take over at a Boise St/Colorado St/Utah St type school when their coach move up the ladder or get fired. Which may mean we get him for a couple more years until one of those jobs open up.
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  • Member Posts: 56,839
    HoustonHusky said:

    Jimmy Lake isn't going in-conference if/when he does leave...he's going to take over at a Boise St/Colorado St/Utah St type school when their coach move up the ladder or get fired. Which may mean we get him for a couple more years until one of those jobs open up.

    You think he's going straight to an HC gig without calling plays? I doubt that. He'll go in conference for a playcalling (REAL) DC position.
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  • Member Posts: 5,999
    dnc said:

    show previous quotes
    You think he's going straight to an HC gig without calling plays? I doubt that. He'll go in conference for a playcalling (REAL) DC position.
    Yup. He'll have Peterman giving him a ringing endorsement and a hell of a track record with 3 NFL guys drafted and what should be a pretty good secondary again this year. He will get his chance straight from us, and he'll be smart enough to be selective about which one he takes.

    You think if Peterman highly recommends him to replace Harsin at Boise St they won't hire him?
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  • Member Posts: 56,839
    HoustonHusky said:

    show previous quotes
    Yup. He'll have Peterman giving him a ringing endorsement and a hell of a track record with 3 NFL guys drafted and what should be a pretty good secondary again this year. He will get his chance straight from us, and he'll be smart enough to be selective about which one he takes.

    You think if Peterman highly recommends him to replace Harsin at Boise St they won't hire him?
    I think they'd be stupid to do that and I think Lake would be stupid to wait around for somebody who wants to hire a guy with no coordinator experience as HC.

    I think it's highly unlikely it plays out that way.
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  • Member Posts: 56,839
    HoustonHusky said:

    show previous quotes
    Yup. He'll have Peterman giving him a ringing endorsement and a hell of a track record with 3 NFL guys drafted and what should be a pretty good secondary again this year. He will get his chance straight from us, and he'll be smart enough to be selective about which one he takes.

    You think if Peterman highly recommends him to replace Harsin at Boise St they won't hire him?
    I think they'd be stupid to do that and I think Lake would be stupid to wait around for somebody who wants to hire a guy with no coordinator experience as HC.

    I think it's highly unlikely it plays out that way.
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